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Study: the Universe Has Almost Stopped Making New Stars

SternisheFan sends this quote from Wired: "An international team of astronomers used three telescopes — the UK Infrared Telescope and the Subaru Telescope, both in Hawaii, and Chile's Very Large Telescope — to study trends in star formation, from the earliest days of the universe. Extrapolating their findings has revealed that half of all the stars that have ever existed were created between 9 and 11 billion years ago, with the other half created in the years since. That means the rate at which new stars are born has dropped off massively, to the extent that (if this trend continues) 95 percent of all the stars that this universe will ever see have already been born. Several studies have looked at specific time 'epochs', but the different methods used by each study has restricted the ability to compare their findings and discern a fuller model of how stars have evolved over the course of the entire universe's lifespan."

44 of 228 comments (clear)

  1. And... by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 5, Insightful

    They stopped making new movies, about 2002.

    Now it's only remakes, re-boots, TV re-imaginings, and films based on children's toys.

    --
    "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
    Never been known to fail..."
    1. Re:And... by spire3661 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Tobacco is overrated, Colorado and Washington are where its at.

      --
      Good-bye
    2. Re:And... by geekoid · · Score: 2

      Depends on the Sequel, some are quite creative. Of course I judge things based on evidence, and not because it has the word 'sequel' associated with it. I'm not that small minded.

      Skyfall is very creative.

      Plus, there are many, many original movies put out. Nothing has changed, some movies are good, most aren't. just like it's always been. By the way, I have heard your complaint my entire adult life, but just substitute the year for 1980, 1984, 1990, 2000, 2005,

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    3. Re:And... by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 2

      Of course we legalized pot in Washington - ya gotta have something to get you through the nine month rainy season...

      --
      #DeleteChrome
    4. Re:And... by rockout · · Score: 2

      Mod parent up. I'm so tired of hearing the same old BS from every fucking amateur movie critic, "Yeah, movies suck now, the last time they were good was {insert year that speaker was in late-teens/early 20's}" The most unoriginal thing is that sentence, because in 2002 people 10 years older than you were saying the same thing about 1992, etc. etc.

      --
      I've learned that they're worthless, so I don't read AC comments anymore.
  2. A hundred billion! by Stolzy · · Score: 2

    Maybe we should just wait for another 9 to 11 billion years to see if they're right?

  3. Fermis paradox by fivethreeo · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Why we dont find any life out theere, the golden age of the universe might just be long passed. Might have been teeming at some point. Sorry no Star-Trek possible anymore.

    1. Re:Fermis paradox by X0563511 · · Score: 2

      Assuming we don't kill ourselves off, first, or get off this rock before chance does it for us.

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    2. Re:Fermis paradox by oodaloop · · Score: 2, Informative

      Um, we know pretty well how stars are formed. Hydrogen gas is slowly drawn together from gravity, accelerates as it gets closer, and eventually sets itself on fire. with less and less hydrogen gas freely floating around, it makes sense fewer stars would be forming.

      --
      Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
    3. Re:Fermis paradox by Alamais · · Score: 4, Informative

      Er, no. Yes, it accumulates due to gravity, but it does not "set itself on fire due to acceleration": hydrogen fire (i.e. combustion) is a chemical reaction with oxygen (2 H2 + O2 -> 2 H2O). A 'star' is an accumulation of hydrogen until the pressure and heat due to self-gravitation are sufficient to allow sustained nuclear fusion to occur.

  4. I found that interesting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I've often casually thought about star formation when viewing images of planetary nebula like the Orion nebula. The captions/descriptions almost always mention that the nebula was the remnants of a star, and then point out areas of new star formation. But the math never really added up, since one nebula would have a bunch of stars and no explanation is usually given.

    I guess that's just a round about way of saying that I subconsciously expected the findings here to be true. It's nice that someone went to the effort to schedule the telescope time and document this.

  5. Re:I BLAME GLOBAL WARMING by ArcadeMan · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I blame Universal cooling.

  6. Obligatory something-or-other? by macraig · · Score: 2

    I for one welcome our new entropic overlords. No (stellar) news is good news, right?

  7. Re:Keep calm and love astronomy. by Antipater · · Score: 2

    I don't think you understand the word "since".

    --
    Everything is better with chainsaws.
  8. OMG! The star creators have Gone Galt! by StefanJ · · Score: 2

    They're all hiding out in a black hole waiting for all those slacker main sequence dwarfs to die off. Damn pirates never contribute anything to the interstellar medium. Eliminate capital gains taxes now!

  9. Fermi's Fallacy by oGMo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The Fermi Paradox assumes quite a few things which may not be true, such as interstellar travel being practical or desirable, life and intelligence being similar to our own, the fact we could actually spot it with our current techology (or that it would desire to be seen), and that artifacts of past civilizations would actually last for the millions of years between said civilization and our own.

    We are barely able to start seeing extrasolar planets. The idea that "if it's out there, we would have seen it" seems a bit silly for any number of reasons. For instance, noticing, here on earth, the tiny blip in time a civilization that might use radio waves seems unlikely. People who subscribe to the technological singularity might assume that any civilization with high enough technology would be incomprehensible to us; think of us trying to tune into a radio show (or look for smoke signals) when they're using the internet. I think the article above lists a few more.

    Star Trek may well not be possible as you say; that doesn't mean something better isn't.

    --

    Don't think of it as a flame---it's more like an argument that does 3d6 fire damage

    1. Re:Fermi's Fallacy by Charliemopps · · Score: 2

      There's also the fact that if we took the largest, most powerful radio telescope we have, put it on a planet orbiting our nearest star, pointed it directly at earth with the most powerful broadcast it could generate... by the time the signal got to us, there is no equipment on earth that could detect it. That should give you some idea of how insignificant our technology is on an interstellar scale. Faster than light travel is impossible, leaving your own solar system impractical at best. Traveling at even 1% the speed of light will likely be beyond our grasp for hundreds if not thousands of years. We are ants. We don't even know if there's life in THIS solar system outside our atmosphere. To start pretending we know whats around another star is foolish to say the least.

    2. Re:Fermi's Fallacy by marcosdumay · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The idea that "if it's out there, we would have seen it" seems a bit silly for any number of reasons.

      Yes, that idea is silly. The actual Fermi idea that "if there was life out there it would have colonized the entire galaxy already, and we wouldn't be here asking if there is life out there" holds a lot more of water.

    3. Re:Fermi's Fallacy by Graymalkin · · Score: 3, Informative

      There's also the fact that if we took the largest, most powerful radio telescope we have, put it on a planet orbiting our nearest star, pointed it directly at earth with the most powerful broadcast it could generate... by the time the signal got to us, there is no equipment on earth that could detect it.

      That's completely false. If you took Arecibo and stuck it in orbit around Alpha Centauri and beamed a signal back it would be fairly easy to detect with an Arecibo-class telescope provided we were looking. For a little more on the math read up. We could receive transmissions from dozens of light years away with existing telescopes and even further away with arrays and/or locations with better signal-to-noise ratios than available on planet (like the dark side of the Moon).

      --
      I'm a loner Dottie, a Rebel.
    4. Re:Fermi's Fallacy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Check your own source... it would be possible to detect high powered and precisely targeted communication from Alpha Centauri with an Arecibo size receiver (the biggest we ever made for this type of radiation, mind you), if the receiver itself is pointing at the source.
      Now imagine there was a planet the size of earth at Alpha Centauri, and you cut it in half and turned _the entire planet half_ into a telescope. Aimed directly at earth, according to the source you linked, you would detect _absolutely no signals_, since afaik we have not been blasting the Centauri system with highly directed transmissions four years ago.
      Keep in mind that the average distance we're dealing with is in the thousands of light years, and that flux density decays quadratically.

      You're right that GP has made up a false fact, but no need to overdo it in the opposite direction. To get the slightest signal, we need:
      - an emitter willing to target earth, among a few hundred billion stars to chose from (lets keep to our own galaxy)
      - to listen somewhat exactly in this emitters direction, with the right type of receiver, which again is one of a lot possible combinations
      - this to happen at the same time, out of billions of years to chose from
      So yeah, SETI might not be the most promising program. But it's cool and there's highly useful tech from developing all the stuff to get it running.

  10. Getting off this rock is Hard Ecology by billstewart · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The only ways to get off this rock are to understand ecologies well enough to be able to build a sustainable large-scale ecology with enough complexity to maintain human life, or to understand human minds well enough to upload ourselves into robots. To do the former, humans need to be Not Dead Yet, which means we have to be able to understand ecologies well enough not to poison ourselves before we've got a bunch of starships. So far, we haven't been able to build little model terrariums like Biosphere 2 without cheating, and we won't be able to build a colony on Mars (where you've got some resources to cheat with), much less outer space, until we can do one on Earth.

    So if you want to get off the planet, you've got to fix the planet first. Or, like, do the robot upload dance, and you're not getting me inside one of those things any time soon.

    --

    Bill Stewart
    New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
    1. Re:Getting off this rock is Hard Ecology by SecurityGuy · · Score: 2

      This is pretty incomprehensible, but I'd just like to point out that many billions of computers capable of providing a perfect host for one human mind have been built. Each one consumes about 10-20 watts. It hasn't been done in silicon yet, but assuming it will require insane amounts of energy is not at all realistic.

  11. I can't explain it but, by Slutticus · · Score: 5, Insightful

    for some reason this makes me incredibly sad.

    1. Re:I can't explain it but, by silverspell · · Score: 2

      Yeah, the first thing I thought of is "This is the saddest news I've heard in a while."

      (Which is silly, but being human is also silly, so...)

  12. Reminds me of The Last Question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Question

  13. Local Group 112 of the Star Union is on strike by BLToday · · Score: 3, Funny

    This is what happens when God allowed the star makers to unionized. They get lazy and production drops.

    I'll be using this news to tell me wife why I'm just sitting on the couch and not doing house chores. I want minimize my contribution to the heat death of the universe.

  14. Of course it stopped. by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 3, Funny

    Do you know how much those things *cost* to build new. Jeez.

    --
    Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
  15. Re:I BLAME GLOBAL WARMING by meta-monkey · · Score: 5, Funny

    I prefer to think of it as "gaining helium (and heavier things)," but I guess you're one of those "star is half empty" kind of people?

    --
    We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
  16. Re:The starcreators are pissed.... by meta-monkey · · Score: 2

    Astronomy is just lies from the Devil to fool us. And you fell for it...hook, line, and [jeremy irons]tzinker[/jeremy irons].

    --
    We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
  17. Re:Agreed... by meta-monkey · · Score: 2

    The truly sad thing is the direction of the thrust of technology in our most...valuable? profitable?...companies: advertising. Google: worth billions! Realizes the searchable web so they can...spy on people to better push ads at them. Facebook: (was) worth billions! Connects people as never before...so they can better push ads at you. Not rocketships, not men on the men...our best and brightest are hard at work pushing ads for dick pills.

    Then at least occasionally somebody DOES set their sights higher, and look at the comments on Slashdot: a bunch a cynical whiners casting insults at Elon Musk.

    --
    We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
  18. Re:I BLAME GLOBAL WARMING by lgw · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's not really cooling, it's just spreading the same amount of energy over an increasingly large area. The sum total is still the same.

    There's a word for "spreading the same amount of energy over an increasingly large area": cooling. That's the normal way that cooling happens after all.

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  19. Re:The starcreators are pissed.... by lgw · · Score: 5, Funny

    You need to update your memes. The people lefties hate are called "Tea Partiers" now, not "neocons". Hasn't been "neocons" since 2010. Remember, it doens't matter what either group actually stood for, the point is to corrupt the language.

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  20. We're running out.... by countach · · Score: 4, Funny

    We're running out of stars.... Get 'em while they're hot!

  21. Obligatory Clarke reference by Rudisaurus · · Score: 2

    “Look,” whispered Chuck, and George lifted his eyes to heaven. (There is always a last time for everything.)

    Overhead, without any fuss, the stars were going out.

    Arthur C. Clarke, The Nine Billion Names Of God, 1953

    --
    licet differant, aequabitur
  22. Nonsensicle statistics by Charliemopps · · Score: 3, Informative

    95 percent of all the stars that this universe will ever see have already been born

    And since, based on all the studies we've done, the universe is flat... and therefor infinite... 5% * infinity is what? Infinity. So perhaps star formation will be less dense going forward, but I believe back when it was a lot more active, the universe was probably a lot less hospitable to those of us that don't find gamma ray bursts good for our health.

    We now know that the universe is flat with only a 0.5% margin of error. This suggests that the Universe is infinite in extent; however, since the Universe has a finite age, we can only observe a finite volume of the Universe.

    Source: http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/universe/uni_shape.html

  23. along those lines: Fade to Black... by Fubari · · Score: 4, Informative
    Fade to Black: The Night Sky of the Future is a slide show that considers the long term implications of cosmic expansion. Here's an excerpt from the introduction page.

    The night sky on Earth (assuming it survives) will change dramatically as our Milky Way galaxy merges with its neighbors and distant galaxies recede beyond view.
    The quickening expansion will eventually pull galaxies apart faster than light, causing them to drop out of view. This process eliminates reference points for measuring expansion and dilutes the distinctive products of the big bang to nothingness. In short, it erases all the signs that a big bang ever occurred.
    To our distant descendants, the universe will look like a small puddle of stars in an endless, changeless void.

    1. Re:along those lines: Fade to Black... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      According to current theory, the universe inflated rapidly, then slowed to a gradual expansion, then began accelerating again. The dynamics behind this are completely unknown. And yet you do a naive linear extrapolation to forecast what will happen for periods up to 7000x greater than the current age of the universe.

    2. Re:along those lines: Fade to Black... by Ja'Achan · · Score: 2

      Yes and no. You cannot travel through space faster than light. However, space can expand at any speed it wants to. Then end result is that distance between start and finish increases, making it look like faster than light travel (if you'd take the distance at the end divided by the time taken). However, at no time during the travel between start and finish can the object travel faster than the speed of light. (If you'd take the distance at the start divided by the time taken, the object will seem to have travelled slower than it actually did.)

  24. Re:First law violation by ogre7299 · · Score: 2

    This is a huge error in the Wired article "The telescopes searched for alpha particles emitted by Hydrogen atoms (commonly found in star formation, appearing as a bright red light)." An alpha particle is the nucleus of a Helium atom, so if hydrogen could emit that it would be an incredible feat! However, they really mean H-alpha line emission, a bright emission line that comes from the recombination of a proton and electron and it can be measured out to high redshifts.

    They aren't observing fusion since that process takes place deep inside the stars.

  25. Re:I BLAME GLOBAL WARMING by marcosdumay · · Score: 2

    Well, I still don't get this very well...

    General Relativity doesn't conserve the total energy. The total energy of the photons of the Universe is reducing as the Universe expands, and the total of dark energy is increasing much faster, but we don't even know WTF that thing is, so this may not be usefull at all.

  26. Re:No more stars? by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 3, Funny

    What, like X-Factor you mean

    No, he said a star making machine.

    .... like Hollywood ??

    --
    Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
  27. don't be sad, headline is misleading by rubycodez · · Score: 2

    we know stars will be burning for the next 10 to 100 trilllion years (10^13 to 10^14 years, not the UK trillion),

    of course most stars have already formed from the initial surplus of the big bang and the short lived first stars which were hundreds of times as massive as our sun. we're now in the age of long lived stars and less births. the good spot for life, with heavier elements.

  28. Re:No more stars? by RaceProUK · · Score: 2

    Don't worry. Obama can fix it. Just hope it with all your heart and he will change it for you.

    Mitt, is that you? :P

    --
    No colour or religion ever stopped the bullet from a gun
  29. Re:I BLAME GLOBAL WARMING by schroedingers_hat · · Score: 2

    Aliens use cheap noname chinese laptops?