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Bungled Mobile Bet Will Be Ballmer's Swan Song
snydeq writes "'If Windows 8 and the Surface tablet flop, you'll see a shareholder revolt that will send Steve Ballmer packing by this time next year,' writes InfoWorld's Bill Snyder. 'First it was the netbook, then it was the Ultrabook. Microsoft, Intel, and the PC makers keep looking for a way to convince buyers they don't need an iPad or Android tablet. Neither initiative gained much traction, so Microsoft bet big on Windows 8 and the Surface. ... Maybe we're wrong, and buyers will decide that the new OS and the Microsoft's first serious venture into hardware are what they want. It would be a huge boost for the industry if it happens, but I'm not optimistic. ... There's been a string of bad quarters, and the stock has been frozen for nine years. At some point — I think we're getting really close — investors are going to demand a shakeup. When they do, it's going to be good-bye, Ballmer."
It came with Windows 7 Starter though I've never actually used it. I upgraded the 1GB factory RAM to 2 GB. It runs Kubuntu like a dream, I replaced the factory HDD with an SSD and I have it booting Chromium from power button to login prompt in 26 seconds.
Why I really like it?
It fits in a small backpack. It's no problem carrying it when I bike, unlike a larger laptop, it's got awesome battery life and I've had two major bike crashes where I got pretty descent injuries (chainline failures at bad times, both of them) with the thing in my backpack and it's still working perfectly today. Best initial $250 I ever spent on a computer and the upgrades I put in were totally worth it.
I don't use it for much more than web browsing, it's not a work horse, but it does web browsing like a champ, and I have done some very minor Gimp edits and some other things on it too.
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The other thing is that I sort of sympathize with Ballmer. Sure, Windows 8 and Surface have flaws. Even when Microsoft does something right like the Kinect, we're upset that those open drivers aren't released on day one. And being a lowly software developer with zero stock in Microsoft (okay, I don't really track my 401k funds down to the stock), I sort of have to ask shareholders a big question: If you want to oust Ballmer over Windows 8 and Surface tablet, why didn't you simply sell all your shares and even short the stock when they debuted? I mean, hindsight is 20/20 and shareholders get to play this game where they read the SEC reports on these things, then they get to sit there watching and then if these products fail they basically go on a litigation witch hunt on whoever made these decisions. But if Windows 8 and the Surface tablet are huge hits? Well, you'll never hear a peep from those shareholders. They likely either quietly cash out or demand more growth (thus delaying pending litigation).
I can understand shareholders suing over actual gross negligence or actual shady accounting and misreporting to the SEC. But it should be the SEC who decides which company to sue over that. Look, if you've got shares in Microsoft and it's painfully obvious that Windows 8 and the Surface Tablet are gonna flop then what in the hell are you doing holding onto those shares? Microsoft should decide internally if it's Ballmer's time to go, not some shareholder with their eye on the prize and little knowledge of technology. I don't like to defend Ballmer and he very well may have conceived these things himself and pushed them through development and production -- but wouldn't the people on the inside know that it's time for him to step down after that?
I'm pretty sure what happened here was Ballmer said, "What's the best thing we got? Okay, we're going with that." If it was Steve Jobs style micromanaging that forced these products through and the board of directors has no clout against Ballmer then the shareholders might have a place here. I just don't see that right now.
Also I feel like there's a lot of potential explanations for this guy's complaints:
But the really telling number was in the Windows Division, with revenue of $3.24 billion, down a frightening 33 percent from the same period last year.
So Microsoft releases the first stable version of Windows 7 on February 22 of 2011 and a year later you're calling a 1/3 drop in Windows sales "frightening"? Perhaps they were just coming down from everyone's move to Windows 7? I mean you (hopefully) only need to buy that once for your machine.
This author claims to be "putting his neck on the line" with this prediction but all I see are a lot of questions that want you to believe what he's saying will happen without him ever actually saying that Microsoft's mobile will flop and Steve Ballmer will then be ousted. To back that up he goes on with further questions surrounding earnings reports. God I've wasted too much time on this post already considering how insipid the original article is.
My work here is dung.
not the other way around.
Netbooks were started by ASUS and their peers as an 'appliance' laptop- They were Linux based and only cost a few hundred bucks. Microsoft didn't try to get into it until it was posing as a threat to Windows!
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At this point, I doubt if Microsoft's Board of Directors (who are chartered with looking out for shareholder interests) are any less to blame than Mr. Ballmer.
Maybe the shareholders should demand significant fresh blood in Microsoft's Board of Directors, since the BoD has allowed to continue, even fostered, the Ballmer problem far longer than they should have.
out with the Ballmer, in with the "interim CEO" bill gates? would be interesting to see what he does with the company now that he's become more of a philanthropist. Worked for Apple, and we know how MS loves to ... innovate.
I work for the Department of Redundancy Department.
4 million Windows 8 "upgrades" in just the first weekend - doesn't count any of the OEM or retail sales, just the online upgrade portal.
Is that a lot!? ...seems like a tiny number to me considering the Desktop maketplace is 1.6Billion last time I looked. Android activates 1.3million users daily, and that's a phone OS. I don't see large queues of people like I do for say the iPhone...or like there used to be for say Windows95.
Lets be honest 4million isn't all that many.
So Microsoft releases the first stable version of Windows 7 on February 22 of 2011 and a year later you're calling a 1/3 drop in Windows sales "frightening"? Perhaps they were just coming down from everyone's move to Windows 7? I mean you (hopefully) only need to buy that once for your machine.
When revenue in just about all divisions drop to near 2006 levels, you've got a problem.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-microsoft-income-by-segment-2012-10
Uh, we're also at the same levels were were in March of 2010 and March of 2011. Mind explaining why he wasn't ousted then? Or why you skipped those dates and went all the way back to 2006 before the recession? Yeah, everyone was riding high before the recession ... we know ...
What does Microsoft have to do with netbooks or ultrabooks? Netbooks were Intel's initiative to create a secondary computer for consumption only that would be too weak to run Windows (Vista at the time). The fact that almost all of them ended up running Windows was bonus for Microsoft, and Intel's loss. Tablets (iPad and Android) are intended for the same purpose. Ultrabooks are Intel's initiative to reduce their dependency on Apple for the high-end laptop market. Neither of these was started by Microsoft, although Microsoft has clearly benefitted from both. So I don't know where he's coming from with this.
He's on better ground with the claim that if Windows 8 and Surface fail Balmer will be in trouble. At least these are both clearly Microsoft's doing. But how could Window 8 fail? It's pretty much guaranteed at least Vista levels of success, which is to say a marketing failure but a sales success. And considering that most enterprises are currently moving to Windows 7 and Windows 8 won't be in their normal upgrade cycle a lack of enterprise sales won't be considered failure by itself. It's pretty much impossible for Balmer to get serious pain from a single release of Windows. Surface is easier to measure failure on. Microsoft has clearly invested lots of money in designing and producing it, so if there are very few sales there will be a substantial loss. Still, the sales projections aren't huge, so it seems likely that they will be met. Surface has limited distribution, likely due to limited production. If sales are really bad then production will slow down and distribution will increase, which would help to minimize losses. And I'm ignoring the fact that reviews for both have been generally positive. Outside of places like Slashdot the reception has been mixed, but more positive than negative. Which makes complete failure seem unlikely. Unless people stop buying PCs and buy iPads instead Balmer seems pretty secure in his position for now.
In server 2012 the picture preview is available, its just not installed by default. I am pretty sure its part of the 'desktop experience' feature. My question is, why would you even want that on a server?
Steve Balmer is the Rahm Emanuel of High Tech: He has no respect for the people who put him and his company where they are.
His customers have long since noticed. They are forced to use MS products because there are no other practical choices in the marketplace, and Balmer disrespects them even while he takes their money. This has now become a serious problem for Microsoft -- as a company it enjoys no good will from its customers. Without customer good will, MS products don't get the attention and consideration they might deserve, from customers, who have been forced to use MS Windows and MS Office and pay unrealistic prices for the dubious privilege.
Balmer also has no respect for his employees. He plays projects, managers and products off against each other until his best employees leave. This creates stress, consumes time, costs money and consistently produces compromised, mediocre products that are often outdated on their FCS date. MS talent drain has always been unmanageable, even when employment conditions favored MS.
Without happy customers, without happy employees, and without the sense to correct these two negative business issues, MS is pretty much doomed.
specifically said that the iPad was introduced to fill a void between the smart phone and the laptop, and that the iPad was created because "the problem is, netbooks aren't better than anything": http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OBhYxj2SvRI#!
So now what's recommended for people who want to run PC applications that aren't very demanding of CPU speed on a device that fits in a messenger bag? Or are there so few people in that situation that they're an edge case not worth serving?
Every time I saw a netbook it was when someone handed it to me, asking me to make it faster. I told them it was a netbook and that it wasn't built to be fast, and that there was little I could do. I then asked them why they got it and they said that they wanted a cheap laptop. So you have a generation of consumers who bought a netbook, realized that they didn't have patience for it, and now will make sure they will get a laptop that they don't need to be patient with.
understand that you're coming from a position of ignorance and frankly, it shows!
Windows may not be as good as the alternatives in many respects, but its not totally useless. It has a very capable shell - Powershell, you can install all manner of IDEs without the monstrosity that is visual studio (yeah, it has bloated a lot), but there's code:blocks, eclipse, qt's suite, intel's compiler even. It can display folders with preview pictures - in many different styles, like Large icons, medium or small icons, or tiles etc.
So... if you're going to give it a go, you have to give it a proper chance. Your post is like a Windows user installing Linux and complaining there's no way to map network drive letters.
Windows 8 is very nice. The only problem is how underdeveloped and closed, the currently developed apps are, including microsofts own. Windows 8 Apps need to be full featured and well thought out. Right now, the app store isnt even good.
There is work to do still, but the OS is incredibly good. All that is needed is for Microsoft to comit to good idea it has, and work on the apps and app store to show people how good it can be.
Right now, its not even a competitor to Apple. The apps are bad mostly, the store is a joke compared to itunes very well organized store. The store itself lacks features.
Microsoft has R&D'd great ideas over the years and never got behind them fully. I hope this isnt just another microsoft zune. This is a great idea, with a great OS behind it. IF MS lets this slip away into boring like the media player, zune, etc... well MS will find itself with a new leader, as it should.
It's clear that MS has great programmers and tech... they just need the direction of say a Steve Jobs....
However, when I read TFA, Snyder is trying to argue that Netbooks and Ultra Books are MS's and Intel's response to iPads and Android tablets. His premise is clearly absurd, as netbooks were selling by the millions before the first iPad was ever manufactured, and Ultra Books are a response to Macbook Air - not to tablets. MS might end up screwing up big-time with Surface, but it won't have anything to do with Snyder's curious re-working of the history of the netbook.
ASUS and their peers copied the idea about 10 years after the first netbook and started a new boom of cheap latop-like mobile computers.
Netbooks were started by ASUS and their peers as an 'appliance' laptop- They were Linux based and only cost a few hundred bucks. Microsoft didn't try to get into it until it was posing as a threat to Windows!
Let me fix that for you:
Netbooks were started by PSION as an 'appliance' laptop- They were EPOC based and only cost a few hundred bucks AND had 40 hrs of battery uptime. Microsoft did get into it with the last Edition WindowsCE, because PSION thought it would be a great Idea to get in bed with MS. PSION standing in the mobile market folded shortly thereafter, just as Nokia is folding now.
A shame actually, the original Netbook [wikipedia.org] was a very good machine with some features we can only dream about even today, 13 years later (like a really awesome keyboard despite the really small size)
EPOC went on to become the awesome Symbian Mobile OS which Nokia dropped after getting in bed with MS. ... What a coincidence.
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
Where's the bad performance? Anyone looked at the stock market? The tech sector OVERALL is at -22% since 2003 (9 years ago). MS is BEATING THE INDUSTRY, lol. Sure, APPLE is way up, but if you discount that one stock MS is actually pretty much the best performer around. I mean I'm sure you can find smaller plays that are of course MUCH MUCH better, or Apple, but I hardly think that the shareholders at MS have any big reason to complain currently. They MAY feel uneasy about the strategic direction of the company, but the notion that stock performance is going to get Balmer tossed is probably not even close to realistic. Truthfully stock holders don't generally think a lot about strategic considerations either, sadly. If they did a LOT of CEOs would be out of jobs...
"Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem." -- Jefferson
And I've heard (maybe this is just a rumor) that the next version of Windows server is not going to have a GUI interface and will be completely command line driven; what sysadmin wants to sit there typing command after command into a Dos prompt.
Uh... most sysadmins do that all day on Linux. That is, people whose title is "sysadmin" (implying a big-league system), not "IT guy" (implying a small-medium business) pretty much use Linux for servers, and they manage just fine.
I seem to remember that the GUI would be an option, not unavailable, but even if it were unavailable a server is not something you administer at the console. It's something you manage remotely, and even if you need a GUI (which is fine for the smaller companies), RDP is a stupid way to do that compared to a desktop console.
However, not requiring a GUI means that everything is controllable by command line which is a MASSIVE boon for anybody doing serious administration, because it means everything is scriptable and repeatable.
I have developed a truly marvelous proof of this comment, which this signature is too narrow to contain.
microsoft has never been an innovator, but his running them into the ground is a textbook example of why you don't let marketing run a technology company.
Everyone I have talked to who has been forced to use the ribbon has eventually concluded that it is indeed a better interface than the old toolbar/menu combo. The only ones I know who still complain about the ribbon are the ones who never gave it a real chance
You know a different crowd than I, then. I know a lot of people who use the ribbon on a daily basis, and have for quite a long time. They've all given it a real chance. I'd say that 8 or 9 out of ten of them think it's a barely-acceptable horrorshow.
Small new devices are 'cool' but that isn't where MS / Ballmer missed the point. They took Microsoft's flagship OS and optimized the whole user interface to work on 'cool' handheld devices where they don't have a serious foothold in the market. I know that they are salivating looking at Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store but they just thumbed their nose at everyone who uses the most entrenched desktop operating system in the world. It is a train wreck as a desktop UI and they are so obscenely blind that they didn't see it or just plain ignored it.
How many people with a tablet and a PC will sit down and use the tablet for word processing or an spreadsheet? This is the biggest opening for a competitor to jump into the desktop OS market I've ever seen. And for the people who think hand held toys like tablets "are a paradigm shift" then explain to me how that correlates with the number of dual or triple display setups that are being rolled out?
(Ask Oracle how the mas shift to thin computing is working for them!)
The boat has been missed. Let's see if they notice.