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Asteroid Apophis Just Got Bigger

Posted by samzenpus on from the a-little-chin-music dept.

astroengine writes "As the potentially hazardous asteroid makes closest approach to Earth today, astronomers using the European Herschel Space Observatory have announced something a little unsettling: asteroid 99942 Apophis is actually bigger than we thought. Herschel astronomers have deduced that Apophis is 1,066 feet (325 meters) wide. That's 20 percent larger than the previous estimate of 885 feet (270 meters). 'The 20 percent increase in diameter, from 270 to 325 m, translates into a 75 percent increase in our estimates of the asteroid's volume or mass,' said Thomas Müller of the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Garching, Germany, and lead scientist of the study. In addition, the space telescope has re-analyzed the albedo of the space rock, providing a valuable heat map of the object's surface — data that will improve orbital trajectory models."

9 of 182 comments (clear)

  1. So... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ...does this mean we're more likely to die or less likely to die?

    1. Re:So... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      No, the chances we are all going to die are still 100%. The only question is when.

    2. Re:So... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Only about 95% of all humans who have ever existed have died. There's still a 5% fighting chance immortality exists. Not only that, but my odds are better than most humans, past and present.

  2. And Leon's getting LARGERRRR! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Someone had to say it.

  3. 2029 approach by olsmeister · · Score: 5, Informative

    They're also saying that Apophis will pass within 36,000 km of Earth in 2029. Now that's not missing us by much.

    1. Re:2029 approach by SternisheFan · · Score: 5, Informative

      They're also saying that Apophis will pass within 36,000 km of Earth in 2029. Now that's not missing us by much.

      And that'll be about the right time for our space-tech to have caught up enough for us to be able to 'lasso' it. If we miss it then, by it's expected return in 2036 we'd better be able to control it. It seems to keep getting a little closer with each return orbit.

      From the above link:

      " The asteroid will return to Earth's neighbourhood again in 2036, but quite how close it will come then is uncertain, as the 2029 approach is predicted to alter its orbit substantially. Obtaining improved physical parameters for Apophis and its orbit is thus of great importance in being able to make better predictions of its future trajectory." Read more at:

    2. Re:2029 approach by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 5, Interesting

      It's a lot easier to calculate orbit than mass, and the latter is pretty much irrelevant to the former--Earth is so much more massive than Apophis can possibly be that the asteroid's mass can be ignored in any orbital calculation. So we'll know if it's going to hit us or not, even if we don't know how big a boom it will make if it does hit.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
  4. Re:Homeowners insurance by Ackmo · · Score: 5, Funny

    Hmm. My insurance policy actually says, "act of Goa'uld". I always thought that was a typo.

  5. Re:Apophis larger than we thought by cervesaebraciator · · Score: 5, Funny

    Shouldn't be too hard. So long as we can fund about three people, only two of whom actually need to be soldiers. If they can convince one of Apophis' guys to join our side, that should be enough to defeat the lot.