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When It's Time To Scale, US Manufacturing Hits a Wall
curtwoodward writes "MIT researchers looked at 150 of the school's spin-out companies in manufacturing businesses over a decade, and found many of them hit the same chasm: Once it was time to ramp up to large-scale production, they couldn't find domestic investors and had to go overseas. The bulk of the research will be published later this year, but it raises an interesting conundrum — if an MIT-pedigreed company has serious trouble ramping up production in the U.S., how much harder is it for the 'average' business that wants to grow? Is it even still possible to do high-tech manufacturing here — or should it be?"
Intel seems to be doing OK with U.S. manufacturing, but they have the advantage of established operations.
That is what TFA is really saying, not that America can not manufacture. That jives with my own experience. The US investment community is addicted to quick turn Internet services that can turn around in a matter of months. Startups that actually need to produce physical products are starving because investors don't want to put their money into projects that take millions of dollars and several years to break even.
What is interesting is that they are foreign investors willing to fund manufacturing. Some are even willing to manufacture in the US. So it is a US investor psychology problem not a global one.
"a company needs investors."
Not really. That is a common mythconception. Grow slowly and borrow instead of getting investors. That means you benefit more from your innovation. There is no better place for you to invest your own money, and time, than in your own creations where you have control.
But you have pretty much written off "Scaling Up" when you take this approach.
It may be a better long term practice for small business that wants to remain small business, but it is not a solution to meeting demand
or or any of those other things that you typically expect when a product becomes popular and widely available. Its fine for a family business, more suited to the service industry than to manufacturing.
You also run the risk of leaving the door wide open for competitors, some of whom will be using your inventions, but none of whom you will have the money to fight, because you insist on growing slowly. It doesn't matter if you are seeking to replace the College Yearbook, and end up creating Facebook, or seeking a better PDA and end up creating the iPhone. If you don't scale quickly and massively, you will lose your market to the next guy who will go all in. Just ask Palm or Psion or My Space.
You have to scale, or forever remain a niche product. Tesla is facing this test as we speak. DeLorean failed it.
Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
As a business owner myself, I do agree with this, to a point. There are times, especially if you are a manufacturer, that you desperately need capital to just keep up with the ever growing orders. And if you ever get decent publicity, you could be screwed very quickly as you won't have nearly enough inventory to supply the massive increase of demand. And when that happens, a couple of things can occur. One would be that because you can't supply demand, a hole has opened up ready for a competitor to take over. Or, maybe worse, people lose interest in the whole concept of the product because they just can't purchase it. The other problem comes when you throw all the money you have at making more only to find out that still isn't enough. But, you're so strapped up in debt that you literally now must produce more to pay the debt, but you can't because you ran out of money to make more. You end up forcing yourself to go bankrupt even though you have lots of sales.
However, this all hinges on one very major assumption: that the product being sold has the potential of being widely popular where you could easily see exponential growth with just a little marketing, whether expected or not. A true niche product probably has very little possibility of going mainstream and so it can grow at a much slower rate and at possibly higher margins. Just take a look at niche software products like Adobe's stuff or any point of sale system. The prices are high, and especially for the point of sale stuff, not that complicated in features. Like what my one computer science professor always said, the money is in the niche software, and this goes for all markets as long as its a true niche serving a real need. Stuff that isn't widely known but serves a general need is not a niche, it is just starting out.
Why would the jobs still be here? The companies probably would have ended up like hostess, always coming back to the table with their hand out. A cut might have delayed things by afew years, but a couple of unions caving in would not have changed the last 50 years. The owners might have made afew more bucks.
Cheap storage VM.