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Gartner Says 3D Printers Will Cost Less Than $2,000 By 2016
colinneagle writes "Widespread adoption of 3D printing technology may not be that far away, according to a Gartner report predicting that enterprise-class 3D printers will be available for less than $2,000 by 2016. 3D printers are already in use among many businesses, from manufacturing to pharmaceuticals to consumers goods, and have generated a diverse set of use cases. As a result, the capabilities of the technology have evolved to meet customer needs, and will continue to develop to target those in additional markets, Gartner says."
It's interesting how much of the technology for Skynet is being built by humans as tools.
It's very reminiscent of this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_Cairns-Smith
In simplified form, this is the clay hypothesis: Clays form naturally from silicates in solution. Clay crystals, as other crystals, preserve their external formal arrangement as they grow, snap, and grow further. Clay crystal masses of a particular external form may happen to affect their environment in ways that affect their chances of further replication. For example, a 'stickier' clay crystal is more likely to silt a stream bed, creating an environment conducive to further sedimentation. It is conceivable that such effects could extend to the creation of flat areas likely to be exposed to air, dry, and turn to wind-borne dust, which could fall randomly in other streams. Thus - by simple, inorganic, physical processes - a selection environment might exist for the reproduction of clay crystals of the 'stickier' shape.
There follows a process of natural selection for clay crystals that trap certain forms of molecules to their surfaces (those that enhance their replication potential). Quite complex proto-organic molecules can be catalysed by the surface properties of silicates. The final step occurs when these complex molecules perform a 'Genetic Takeover' from their clay 'vehicle', becoming an independent locus of replication - an evolutionary moment that might be understood as the first exaptation.
Despite its frequent citation as a useful model of the kind of process that might have been involved in the prehistory of DNA, the 'clay hypothesis' of abiogenesis is not so popular, as with several other abiogenesis hypotheses. As it was current and fashionable at that time, Richard Dawkins used it as the example model of abiogenesis in his 1986 book The Blind Watchmaker.
Dawkins poetically talks of a future "robot Cairns-Smith" working out that life has gone from being silicon based to carbon based and back again and each transition has vastly increased the speed at which it can develop. I.e. from the pseudo heredity of clay based 'life' to DNA protein based life and Darwinian evolution and finally to machines which understand themselves enough to far outpace pure Darwinian evolution by designing their successors.
Actually if we do get herded into camps by murderous AI this sort of idea would be a great deal of comfort to me.
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
How about the ink? Probably the same game as with current printer ink cartridges - ongoing profit maker...ripoff
Questionable if it's fair right now and in future???
Put your prices up. Wild-ass predictions are obviously a Veblen Good
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
that's some serious detail. I'd have thought 200 microns would be good enough. though admittedly I haven't actually gotten one printed yet; it may suck after all.
Oh thank goodness! We'll now be able to print plastic dogshit cheaper than the cost of mass-producing it in China!
Then nobody will be able to take that away from us - short of prying it out of our cold dead hands.
Gartner is actually correct, if not late to the party.
You can already find them on line for under $1000. Serious ones for under 2000 are easy to find.
Does Gartner not know about Google?
Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
Lets be honest, we barely use our home printers.
Who is "we"? I don't have a printer at all so I use it less than you do. But I know some people who print all kinds of things. Like most other activities that are optional, there are huge variations in what people do.
So "let's be honest". You're not going to use a 3-D printer much. I probably won't either. But there probably will be a significant minority that prints out all kinds of things.
And 640k should be enough for anyone.
People like you predicted no on would have a use for a computer in the home.
Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
McKinsey, same product, often the same methodology.
And it is *astonishing* how many of those reports you cannot find on the Internet later, when you want to make fun of them.
Waiting for it to be a service at e.g. my local Walgreen's (as lab-quality photo printing is today). Doesn't need to be in my house, just convenient.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana." --Groucho Marx
I think the same will happen with 3D printers. They will reach a price point where it is affordable. People will go out and buy one, they realize how much it actually costs to operate. From what I have seen is $5 per cubic inch.
Then of course is the software. Desktop publishing realy took off when one no longer needed a $2000 mac and $500 dedicated software. Right now a $1000 computer is good enough to do design work, but the software still costs. And people are simply not used to paying $500 like we were 15 or 20 years ago. Now personal software is $100 or less, for the most part.
But I think in a couple years this might be solved, and 3D printers will be mainstream for a while. At least many offices will have them, as well as schools. But for home use they will be no more popular than color laser printers.
"She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
There are a ton of 3D printers on the market right now for less thank $2k, many for less than $1k. They are fully assembled machines too, not just a DIY hobby toys. I don't really understand how this article is news.
Fast Federal Court and I.T.C. updates
It may not be exactly what Gartner envisioned, but there's the RepRap project which aims to be able to fully self replicate. At least check it could print 50% of it's own parts, and they are working on being able to print electric circuitry next - http://www.reprapcentral.com/vmchk.html
Or sub $20k, for that matter, but I don't think I'll see it by 2016.
I think the keyword you missed was "enterprise class", implying that its prints will be of higher quality. Or that it has a voice module and regular printer attached to spew our corporate bullshit and white papers.
"To prevent this day from getting any worse, I'll just read ERROR as GOOD THING" 1GJU8xLuDKDxEs4KLf8fAGyptoDsqvEsBT
Gartner don't know a fucking thing except how to sell useless and obvious information to businesses.
-- Braden's law of data: All data spends some of its lifetime in an excel spreadsheet.
Things I have printed on my Prusa...wall mountable backplates for my 6 monitors, table stand for my Nexus 7, clips for freezer bags, a bobble-head version of me (we scanned our faces in grad school). If I could print an imagination for you at some point, I'd be happy to snail-mail it over.
"Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right" - Salvor Hardin
If Gartner predicts it will be a success, it won't. They never ever been right on anything. You would think that even a broken clock is right twice a day but Gartners clock isn't.
And for all the 3D printing fans, right now there is a cheap home production system out there. It is called the sewing machine. It used to be common in every house because producing your own clothes was cheaper and you could make what you needed, when you needed it. Brilliant! There was an entire eco-system around it with fabric stores and even stores that sold nothing but buttons.
Do you own a sewing machine? No? Why not? Because it takes to much skill? Because it is cheaper to buy crappy fall apart stuff made in sweatshops around the world and marked up 1000%?
Well then what makes you think 3D printing will take off as a home production system? Yes yes, you can print your own gun... GUN. SINGLE. So you going to buy a 2000 dollar printer to print a 100 dollar gun... And if you really want to make your own gun, there are already plenty of metal working tools out there that can do it for you. You can already buy all the tools to build a gun. Even in countries with strict gun laws.
3D printing is an amazing invention and will completely change how things are prototyped or how unique items are created. BUT it is the sewing machine, hand sewing machines are STILL used by those prototyping clothing AND artists that want to make something unique. The rest of us buy our crap of the rack.
Same as I don't have a vegetable patch, don't grow my own herbs in a window box, don't make my own soap, don't gather my own firewood, don't cut my own bread, don't generate my own electricity, don't make own compost for plants, fix my own car, paint my apartment.
Hell, how many here even build their own PC anymore? And if you go "oh but that is way to complex and time consuming"
EX-FUCKING-ACTLY
I actually have used 3d printing services to create some cases for Arduino projects. I used a hobby club where a member helped me (well, did all the work for me really) and created some cases from scratch. Very nice, very useful but really, no different from me going to a tailor and asking for a suit to be made (which is not as expensive as people think it is). I don't have a sewing machine and I don't see a future of me owning a 3D printing machine. Why would I? I can pay someone to do it or me, and they can then afford a much better one then I can afford and we are all happy and laughing at Gartners made up statistics.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
Those cost about half your income and the price of a diamond ring.
damaged by dogma
So your point is..because paper documents have gone out of fashion...all physical objects are also useless? Or do you think paper printers aren't cheap and ubiquitous ? I built a 3D printer, and I don't print toys/models.
I broke a wheel on my dishwasher? I just drew one up and printed it, good as new. I broke a handle on my fileting knife..I printed one nicer than the original which has a fish gut scooper on the handle. I've printed brackets for my truck, pieces for the printer itself, and if I got really enterprising, I could use the printed plastic to make a lost-plastic casting and cast myself metal versions of anything I wanted. (See here: http://3dtopo.com/lostPLA/ )
My printer was under a thousand start to finish but that was self built so a lot more work than something you just unbox. (Mendelmax 2.0 from makerstoolworks.com if anyone cares(no affil))
Anyways, does it make pure financial sense? Maybe, maybe not. Does the ability to make any physical object that fits within my printers dimensions within a few minutes or hours make it worth it for me? Definitely. Some things take weeks when you need them now, sometimes you need to try 10 versions of something before it would make sense to pay for a final high quality one to be made. Sometimes its an object not important enough to spend the time and money on if you need to send away for it, but it would be neat to have. There are a million reasons I think 3D printers can work for the average Joe and see regular use.
It's easier to fight for one's principles than to live up to them.
Lets be honest, we barely use our home printers. I'm glad I have it, but I bought my color laser in 2009 and have never changed the toners.
Sure, but I think for many people, printers fall into the "not often needed but occasionally really nice" category.
This would explain why the printer market has developed the way it has, with super incredibly cheap printers that quickly get expensive if you use them a lot.
For some people, a better method of achieving this is easily availabled shared printers (e.g. there are still plenty of internet/manga cafes around here with printers, and the convenience stores all have copiers that can do printing or scanning from/to USB devices and SD cards), but especially in the sparsely populated U.S., I guess mega cheap personal printers that fall over after 10 pages are more popular...
We live, as we dream -- alone....
An "enterprise class" 3D printer is one that will be able to make 3D models from descriptions such as "synergetic, cloud-integrated proactive out-of-the-box social media mindshare ". It will be able to take corporate bullshit as valid input and turn it into accurate 3D models. Essentially it just prints a hardcoded model of a dildo every time.
Slashdot social media options: AIM, ICQ, Yahoo, Jabber and Mobile Text. Why no MySpace?
Needs more xml
Oh, and this replicator was less than 2000$.
Lets be honest, we barely use our home printers. I'm glad I have it, but I bought my color laser in 2009 and have never changed the toners. I print everything to PDF. I have no desire to own a 3D printer because I see no use for it, the little models and small items I've seen people print could have been bought for a few dollars rather than buying a $2,000+ printer and the plastic it uses. If I really need a 3D model I imagine paying someone a few bucks on ebay or craiglist to print custom items. Sorry 3D printer makers, but these will always be for a very niche market, never mainstream.
Turn in your nerd card! You can only print stuff ordered that others designed. If you design yourself, you need to prototype. This is no different from making software versus using software. Everybody who makes software needs a device to work on, instead of only consume, everybody who makes objects needs a printer to try it on, instead of a service that delivers prints at home.
What you claim is hence: "I don't make or design stuff, so I don't need a 3D printer." Yes, but there are many people out there that do make things, probably more than there are software coders. 3D design is also easier than programming, so schools will quicker pick this up than adding coding to the curriculum.
This is indeed not mainstream, but most houses have kids at a certain time, so a 3D printer will be handy, and if people are fed up waiting for a package or the 3D services are not that good, buying one will be an option. In the end, it will come down to ease of use of the printer. I'm able to service my 3D printer, 95% of the population would not manage with the printers in use today. My first order to shapeways took 2 weeks before they notified it could not be printed, and refunded me. Second order took 1.5 weeks to arrive.
I regularly print at 0.1 mm layer height, and generally find that it could be better. If I had the patience for it, I'd go for 0.05 or 0.025.
they said enterprise class.
basically, if you have to put 3d printers into two classes and one of them is enterprise then FDM(the usual home) or resin based systems wouldn't be it.
enterprise class would be objet/polyjet style machines or laser sintering machines.
neither of which will be under 2k in 3 years. unfortunately.
world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
So... All stuff that would have been cheaper to just buy from China. Like he said.
I could download, print and bind a book today. It would be cheaper to just buy the damn thing in most cases and I'd end up with a better product.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
Where do you get the plans for those miniatures? I was thinking about doing the same thing.
And the men who hold high places must be the ones who start
To mold a new reality... closer to the heart
The 'ink' isn't going to be a problem. Someone already thought of that as one of the things that might hold back 3D printing. There is a great article on it: http://techland.time.com/2013/03/04/how-an-83-year-old-inventor-beat-the-high-cost-of-3d-printing/
From the article:
"In May of 2012, the contest, dubbed the Desktop Factory Competition, debuted on iStart.org, a Kauffman-owned platform for entrepreneurial competitions. Sponsored by Inventables, Kauffman and the Maker Education Initiative, it offered $40,000 from Kauffman and hardware prizes such as a 3D printer from Inventables to the first person or team who submitted plans for an open-source device capable of turning plastic pellets into filament. The rules also mandated that the parts involved could cost no more than $250, priced at a 400-unit quantity."
"Buy a kilogram of pellets and make your own filament, and the cost goes down to $10. Buy 25 kilograms of pellets in bulk, and you can print the chess pieces for just $5."
No, no... the voice module on an enterprise class printer allows you to say
"Make it so!"
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
Nerd that works in the fashion industry here, funny story on that one, but any rate we just bought a mid-range 3d printer. Reason, so the fashion designer could create 3D models of button designs and with a little paint get an idea of how it would look on a design sample. From there you can make a casting for a mold to send to a metal or glass maker to make the real thing. Right now we're making a little extra because other area designers are coming in to use it to prototype things like jewelry, belt buckle designs, etc.. I'm sure in a couple years they might have their own, but these are generally creative people. But they all seem to use Autocad.
"The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people's money" - Thatcher.
they already have injection molding machines that do that; they've had that for decades (since the 90s at least)
i remember going to brookfield zoo, and having a gorilla made to order in '90 and then again in '03
i could probably go and get another one once the zoo opens
They've had them at rest stops on the Florida Turnpike since it was built (1960's, I think). I believe they had them at the local zoo, at least for a while.
But there's an essential difference. The injection molding machines each have the ability to manufacture ONE thing, which is whatever the dies installed on it shaped. And due to their construction, they made objects that were mostly hollow.
An actual 3D printer can make anything that you can provide viable blueprints for, hollow or not, subject to the limitations of color, material and topology.
Plus, the idea here was that the same machine could print both commercial product and walk-in projects.