Slashdot Mirror
NOAA: Arctic Likely Free Of Summer Ice By 2050 — Possibly Much Sooner
Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have published research into the shrinking levels of sea ice in the Arctic. They wanted to figure out how long it would take before summer sea ice disappeared entirely. Since there's no perfect model for predicting ice levels, they used three different methods. All three predicted the Arctic would be nearly free of summer sea ice by the middle of the century, and one indicated it could happen as early as 2020. Two of the methods were based on observed sea ice trends. If ice loss proceeds as it has in the past decade, we get the 2020 timeframe. If ice loss events are large, like the 2007 and 2012 events, but happen at random some years, the estimate is pushed back to 2030. The third method uses global climate models to 'predict atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice conditions over time.' This model pushes the timeframe back to 2040 at the earliest, and around 2060 as the median (abstract). One of the study's authors, James Overland, said, "Rapid Arctic sea ice loss is probably the most visible indicator of global climate change; it leads to shifts in ecosystems and economic access, and potentially impacts weather throughout the northern hemisphere. Increased physical understanding of rapid Arctic climate shifts and improved models are needed that give a more detailed picture and timing of what to expect so we can better prepare and adapt to such changes. Early loss of Arctic sea ice gives immediacy to the issue of climate change."
Climate can change and it will change but predicting these kinds of trends to 2050 with any kind of accuracy is ludicrous at best, since they cannot even predict whats the weather next weekend.
The only chance (and it's a damned small one) of getting the various political entities motivated to actually do something
The United States at least, is done. We have hit Kyoto targets. If that was going to help, then it should help; otherwise obviously no further reductions will help much.
If you truly believed what you say, you would be heavily pushing for fracking and nuclear energy. But we both know that's not going to happen, so take your hypocritical and obviously mindlessly liberal (trigger word: Rush) stance and try and scare someone else. The rest of us can think for ourselves.
In the meantime, if there were really a crisis all sorts of leaders would be eschewing personal jets and other things that emit far more carbon than I will in a lifetime. When people in power start acting like there's a crisis, instead of just claiming there's a crisis - at that point I'll put some credence to there being a real problem that needs addressing.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Or maybe it's just the pressures of reality. Ice loss this year will be about average and way above last year. Last year the artic lost ice cover due to, gasp, the weather. This year it is tracking about normal and overall thickness has actually increased.
If the warmistas can just find the missing heat, the debate would be over. But there's the rub.