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Why Self-Driving Cars Are Still a Long Way Down the Road
moon_unit2 writes "Technology Review has a piece on the reality behind all the hype surrounding self-driving, or driverless, cars. From the article: 'Vehicle automation is being developed at a blistering pace, and it should make driving safer, more fuel-efficient, and less tiring. But despite such progress and the attention surrounding Google's "self-driving" cars, full autonomy remains a distant destination. A truly autonomous car, one capable of dealing with any real-world situation, would require much smarter artificial intelligence than Google or anyone else has developed. The problem is that until the moment our cars can completely take over, we will need automotive technologies to strike a tricky balance: they will have to extend our abilities without doing too much for the driver.'"
I think we'll probably see self-driving cars in congested, relatively low-speed environments like inner cities before they're screaming down the highway at 75mph.
On the contrary, "screaming down the highway at 75mph" (never been on the Autobahn, have you?) is a lot easier to automate than driving around a city block. Similarly the easier part of a plane's autopilot is the part that handles cruising at 500mph at 30,000 feet. The numbers are impressive, but the control is comparatively easy.
On a highway there are no traffic lights or stop signs, and there are nicely marked lanes and shoulders. Just stay between the lines at a constant speed and hit the brakes if something appears in front. Compare that to trying to figure out if some guy who's not watching is going to step off the curb and into your way, or if the car pulling out of a parking spot is going to wait for you to pass.
There are roughly 200 million drivers in the US. They have roughly 11 million accidents per year.
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/transportation/motor_vehicle_accidents_and_fatalities.html
The catch is, nearly all traffic accidents are preventable by one of the parties involved. Most are at low speeds and most are due to the driver not paying attention to the situtation around them. Next time you are at a busy traffic light, count the cars around you. Chances are one of them will be in an accident that year. Now do that every time you stop at a traffic light....