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Prof. Stephen Hawking: Great Scientist, Bad Gambler

astroengine writes "World-renowned physicist Stephen Hawking has announced that he was likely wrong about his view that the Higgs boson doesn't exist — an outcome he doesn't find very exciting — conceding that he lost a $100 wager. Speaking at the Beckman Auditorium in Caltech, Pasadena, Calif., on Tuesday (April 16), the British physicist gave a public lecture on 'The Origins of the Universe,' summarizing new revelations in modern astrophysics and cosmology. After the lecture, Caltech physicist and colleague John Preskill commented on Hawking's fondness for placing bets when faced with conflicts of physics ideas. Hawking lost a famous wager to Preskill in 2004 in a debate over whether or not black holes destroy information (theory suggests they do not, opposing Hawking's argument). 'To love Stephen Hawking is to not always agree with Stephen Hawking,' Preskill quipped. 'He's usually right, but he's not always right. Sometimes we haven't been able to resolve our differences and we've resorted to making bets it's sad to say that although Stephen Hawking is without doubt a great scientist, he's a bad gambler.'"

38 of 231 comments (clear)

  1. It's OK by aglider · · Score: 3, Funny

    As long as it goes to science advancements!

    --
    Sent as ripples into the electromagnetic field. No single photon has been harmed in the process.
    1. Re:It's OK by Joce640k · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Maybe he plays to lose just to goad the other guy into finishing his research.

      --
      No sig today...
    2. Re:It's OK by DanTheStone · · Score: 4, Funny
    3. Re:It's OK by Brucelet · · Score: 5, Informative

      Actually my recollection is that he often deliberately bets against his favored hypotheses so that in case he's wrong he still gets some reward. Hedging his bets with the universe, as it were.

    4. Re:It's OK by alendit · · Score: 5, Informative

      From "A Brief History of Time":

      "This was a form of insurance policy for me. I have done a lot of work on black holes, and it would all be wasted if it turned out that black holes do not exist. But in that case, I would have the consolation of winning my bet, which would win me four years of the magazine Private Eye. If black holes do exist, Kip will get one year of Penthouse. When we made the bet in 1975, we were 80% certain that Cygnus was a black hole. By now, I would say that we are about 95% certain, but the bet has yet to be settled."

    5. Re:It's OK by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      God can be omniscient, omnipotent, or omnibenevolent: Select two, in order to have what most people see as God.

      If he's all three, there's a paradox of an omnibenevolent God who wants the best for everyone, yet for some reason allows suffering and evil.

      Rather than "We need those so we understand Good and Happiness" or whatever, I point out that God is omnipotent, and therefore could simply allow us to understand how good we have it without needing the suffering. If he didn't think of this, then he's not omniscient. If he can't do it, he's not omnipotent, and if he doesn't want to, he's not omnibenevolent.

      Given the behavior assigned to God in the Old Testament and the overlap of omnipotence and omniscience, I suspect the explanation is a lack of omnibenevolence. (Were I omniscient, I would know how to make myself omnipotent. Were I omnipotent, I could simply will myself to be omniscient. Neither of those prescribe morality, however.)

      I'd love to hear about alternatives that make logical sense.

    6. Re:It's OK by tnk1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The Problem of Evil is only really a problem in the sense that you or I would not be able to understand how the world could exist in such a way, but still have both the best possible outcome, and also allow free will.

      The fact that humans don't understand something, however, is simply a statement of our own ignorance, and not so much an actual indictment of the idea of an all powerful, all knowing, all benevolent entity. Needless to say, having all the knowledge and all the power would probably provide an understanding of the best possible scenario that we would probably not have any conception of at our level of understanding.

      In short, you're assuming you know what true omniscience, omnipotence, and omnibenevolence looks like. Logic would indicate that actually, you'd need those characteristics to really make a judgement. We still don't even understand things that should be much easier to understand like Quantum Gravity, for instance, but we feel qualified to pronounce on omniscience? I just don't see how that follows.

    7. Re:It's OK by Zero__Kelvin · · Score: 2

      "Or perhaps it's possible to have a "reasonably accurate" conception based on what we are reasonably sure of knowing?"

      OK, Pastor Einstein. Go ahead and tell us everything you know about God.

      As far as the statistically impossible part, it is simple. Pick a concept of God. Out of the infinite possibilities, what are the chances that you picked the right one?

      --
      Guns don't kill people; Physics kills people! - John Lithgow as Dick Solomon on Third Rock From The Sun
    8. Re:It's OK by tnk1 · · Score: 2

      If you mean that I am unable to pick out the exact characteristics of a deity myself, and get them all right... sure, I suppose you're right. Considering that there are actually orthodoxies out there, however, I'd say that for the most part a lot of people can agree on the broader outlines. There are actually a lot fewer choices out there than you think. And I mean *serious* choices, not just theoretical thought problems where the characteristics of a god can be put in a hopper. People may develop Flying Spaghetti Monsters to illustrate that point, but no one has actually ever actually believed in one, which is why it is a flawed argument.

      Further, a religion based on a god or prophet revealing those details is likely to provide insider information as to specifics. And I should note, where there are many confusing or contradictory specifics, many of those specifics are actually irrelevant. Are there seven choirs of angels? Does it even matter? Not particularly. Many of the details that you may be thinking of are what I could call theological OCD. Does Jesus care if you make the sign of the cross with your right or left hand? I'd say probably not. Does he care if you make the sign of the cross at all? Again, since I never saw it referred to in a gospel, probably not. Still, if you adhere to Roman Catholicism or Eastern Orthodoxy, and it so happens that the Christian God is real and did lay down some laws, you're probably going to get close enough to have an acceptable idea of what you need to do. There's a billion people on Earth who at least identify with those faiths, so there is not some sort of infinite variety of deities in any meaningful sense.

    9. Re:It's OK by tnk1 · · Score: 2

      The spherical shape of the Earth is a falsifiable hypothesis within the realm of the scientific method. Thus, it can be tested and it's factual basis established objectively which allows it to stand against consensus. The existence of a deity is not falsifiable, and therefore normal scientific inquiry is not sufficient. Popular agreement doesn't make it true either, but it certainly doesn't make it false.

      In any case the point I was addressing is that you're stating that everyone is wrong about God. And my point was that while you're almost certainly right, the granularity at which we have to have the exact parameters of the divine to properly identify with them is probably not really a big deal.

      In other words, stop being pedantic.

  2. Don't feel bad... by Black+Parrot · · Score: 5, Funny

    The Higgs boson was also wrong in its view that Stephen Hawkings doesn't exist.

    --
    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  3. FTA by MyLongNickName · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Hawking honed-in on the question “why something rather than nothing?” reasserting his point of view that a supernatural “god” is not needed to create the universe — quantum fluctuations helped shape our evolving universe at the Big Bang, adding the conditions were “just right” for life (and therefore us) to be asking these profound questions.

    This is what I don't understand about these intelligent people. They answer why there is something rather than nothing by talking about how quantum fluctuations work. The existence of quantum fluctuations results from energy existing in the first place. So we have a rather circular argument being made. Essentially it boils down to "there is something because there was something".

    There are only two possibilities: 1) there has always been something 2) there wasn't always something. Neither can be true, ergo we don't exist.

    --
    See my journal for slashdot ID's by year. Mine created in 2005. http://slashdot.org/journal/289875/slashdot-ids-by-year
    1. Re:FTA by Joce640k · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There are only two possibilities: 1) there has always been something 2) there wasn't always something. Neither can be true, ergo we don't exist.

      Things can change form, eg. energy->matter.

      All you need to create all the matter in the universe is a single photon with a wavelength of 10^95Hz, then convert energy->matter.

      --
      No sig today...
    2. Re:FTA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      This is what I don't understand about these intelligent people. They answer why there is something rather than nothing by talking about how quantum fluctuations work. The existence of quantum fluctuations results from energy existing in the first place. So we have a rather circular argument being made.

      He's not arguing that 'something' exists because of quantum fluctuations, he's merely asserting that they replace the need for an intelligent design to explain our existence.

      Essentially it boils down to "there is something because there was something".

      There are only two possibilities: 1) there has always been something 2) there wasn't always something. Neither can be true, ergo we don't exist.

      Besides being a gross (and I mean huge) oversimplication of the facts I fail to see why 'Neither can be true'.

      All in all I don't know what you're trying to prove but whatever it is you aren't quite there yet.

      Oh, and 'these intelligent people' as you so disparagingly call them are extremely dedicated people that have worked years to reach the pinnacle of human understanding. You don't have to agree with them but a little more respect might suit you.

    3. Re:FTA by MozeeToby · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Quantum fluctuations are energy neutral, they don't require there to be existing energy to create, at least not beyond the vacuum energy. Of course, then the argument becomes where did the vacuum come from? Where did the laws of physics come from? But what Hawking is saying is that given an empty universe, the laws of physics, and lots and lots and lots of time (though in an empty universe time is pretty meaningless) quantum fluctuations will eventually produce a full universe.

    4. Re:FTA by NatasRevol · · Score: 2

      That photon would be the actual God particle then.

      --
      There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
    5. Re:FTA by sunsurfandsand · · Score: 2

      Why do the quantum fluctuations exist, what do they exist in, what created them?

      Implicit in your argument is the assumption that if something exists, then it must have been created. If that assumption is correct, then if the Universe exists, it must have been created. What created the Universe? Some people, perhaps including you, would answer that God created the Universe. Does God exist? If so, what created created God? Now you have the problem of an infinite regress.

      If, however, the assumption is incorrect, then the Universe can exist without having been created. If the Universe can exist without having been created, then your criticism of Hawking's logic is poorly supported.

    6. Re:FTA by tyrione · · Score: 2

      Instabilities between changes in state produces wave fluctuations, which produces expansion with each change in state that turns into trillons of trillons of fluctuations and eventually an immeasurable number of state changes eventually leading to expansion. It is ironic people of Faith don't question where God comes from as they accept infinite existence and presence as the answer. But ask for an infinite sequence of connections to prove where the Universe came from if not from God.

  4. Gambler? by Culture20 · · Score: 2

    He backed his scientific hypothesis with money and his hypothesis was wrong. How does that make him a great scientist or a poor gambler?

    1. Re:Gambler? by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Who cares if he is a great scientist or poor gambler? At least he makes the topic amusing by betting on it. That raises interest in the general public about it.

      --
      Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
    2. Re:Gambler? by egcagrac0 · · Score: 2

      scientist are wrong all the time and argue all the time

      Exactly. You don't learn new things when you're right.

    3. Re:Gambler? by Sockatume · · Score: 2

      That would explain his popularity with the general public but it hardly accounts for the huge esteem with which his work is held in cosmology. You can bullshit your fans but you can't bullshit your colleagues.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
  5. The Controversial Side by invid · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Hawking tends to bet on the more controversial side of a scientific debate, and thus the less likely side. He does not play it safe. Of course, statistically he's going to lose. But when he wins ( Hawking Radiation ) he gets stuff named after him.

    --
    The Moore-Murphy Law: The number of things that will go wrong will double every 2 years.
    1. Re:The Controversial Side by Dcnjoe60 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Hawking tends to bet on the more controversial side of a scientific debate, and thus the less likely side. He does not play it safe. Of course, statistically he's going to lose. But when he wins ( Hawking Radiation ) he gets stuff named after him.

      Out of curiosity, why is he going to lose statistically? He isn't picking one side of an argument or another just for the sake of picking. He does his research and forms his hypotheses others do theirs. One may be right or they all may be wrong, but it's not like flipping a coin. Where does statistics come into play?

      What is missed in all of this is why he doubted the Higgs boson -- because, as has now been shown, it is incompatible with our current understanding of how particles formed after the big bang. So, if what we now know or think we know about the Higgs boson is correct, we now have to go back to the drawing board on how matter formed in the very early universe. When Hawking made his $100 bet, that theory was well accepted, now it is wrong and another is needed to account for HB.

    2. Re:The Controversial Side by Sockatume · · Score: 2

      I recall that at least one of his bets was an insurance policy against the possibility that his favourite theory was false. If it was disproven, at least he'd have the consolation of (IIRC) a year's supply of Playboy magazine.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
  6. His "bad" bets spark innovation by Quick+Reply · · Score: 5, Interesting

    He isn't offering the money as a token to indicate how strongly he believes in an idea. $100 isn't going to break the bank for him.

    What is he really doing is offering the chance to boast "I won a bet against Stephen Hawking" (You know... The guy who is regarded by most people to be the smartest person in the world) as the prize for some very extreme research.

    He is giving the encouragement to push the boundaries of what we know about science in the quest of knowledge, and this is exactly what science is about.

    So even when he "loses" the bet, he wins, because he has helped science go further by challenging everything that we know, instead of just following what the "smartest" people think,

    1. Re:His "bad" bets spark innovation by Daithi_c · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I have to agree with this comment.

      It may be wrong, but didn't Albert Einstein challenge people who questioned his ideas to go ahead and prove him wrong, just to get people working on finding stuff out rather than simply challenging some theory that was proposed.

      Kudos to Prof. Hawking for stimulating research, and having some fun at the same time!

      Perhaps the writers of The Big Bang Theory could use the idea to have Prof. Hawking make a bet with Sheldon Cooper about a particular theory. I heard he really enjoyed his appearance on the show and it would be great to see him as a guest star again.

  7. Just As Well by Greyfox · · Score: 4, Funny

    It'd suck having to put up with trash talk from Stephen Hawking after he won a bet with you.

    --

    I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

    1. Re:Just As Well by kruach+aum · · Score: 2

      Not really, you could just turn off his speaker.

    2. Re:Just As Well by rwise2112 · · Score: 2

      It'd suck having to put up with trash talk from Stephen Hawking after he won a bet with you.

      Like this from Big Bang Theory: "Professor Hawking: What do Sheldon Cooper and the black hole have in common? They both suck."

      --

      "For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert"
  8. Obligatory STTNG clip: by BForrester · · Score: 4, Funny

    He's a better gambler than two other famous physicists and an AI from the 24th century
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mg8_cKxJZJY

  9. Re:and so the argument continues to circle... by kvothe · · Score: 2

    Right, all you need is for something to exist in the first place, which can then be organized into other things... So, where does the photon come from?

  10. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 2

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  11. Re:and so the argument continues to circle... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    In the beginning, God said "let there be light," and there was light.

    Happy?

  12. Obligatory XKCD by nephilimsd · · Score: 3, Funny
  13. Truth simply is by gottabeme · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Your reasoning is based on several presuppositions:

    1. That you know what omnibenevolence actually is, from a universal, absolute perspective. We humans have such limited perspectives. What may seem benevolent to us might actually be harmful in ways we aren't aware of or can't comprehend. Helping one person with a problem might end up hurting many more people.

    2. That you know what is actually good for anyone. This is not the same as the previous item. We humans often think we know what we need, what is good for us, but quite often we are wrong, and we do things that are not good for us. How could we make this judgment for others if we can't even make it for ourselves?

    3. That you know what it would be like to be omniscient, omnipotent, or omnibenevolent. Frankly, this is absurd. It's easy to say, "I'd know everything and could do everything!" But you've no idea what knowing everything would actually be like. To see how every single minute particle is connected, how the tiniest action leads to another and another, to see and understand time, to understand at once the enormity of the universe and the smallest subatomic particle, to see inside people's hearts and minds... To actually understand what that would be like is incomprehensible to us, because we are markedly finite. Therefore, to say what you would do if you were any of these things is equally absurd.

    You think you're being logical, but your logic is founded on unprovable assumptions. While you criticize others for making God in their image, you are doing the same thing, constructing a God that you can comprehend. This is exactly why people throughout history have made idols and worshipped them: it's easier to comprehend something you can see and touch, something made by human hands. But in so doing, one is simply worshipping an artificial construct, which is by definition more limited than the one who created it, i.e. even lower than humans. And any God that is wholly comprehensible by humans is by definition not God. There is a fundamental arrogance in believing that nothing is beyond one's own understanding, but this is precisely what people do when they delineate God's boundaries according to their limited perceptions. In the end, this results in idol worship in the form of self-worship, believing that we can reason our way to all truth, while in reality many things are simply beyond our reach.

    Truth is truth whether or not we believe it, understand it, or agree with it. If God is real, then he is real and he is who he is, regardless of what we think, feel, or believe about him.

    --
    "Those who consume the bulk of goods are those who make them. We must never forget this secret of our prosperity."
    1. Re:Truth simply is by firewrought · · Score: 2

      I reject that idea that any attempt to reason about god ultimately equates to arrogance and self-worship. Geeze. Rationality is ultimately about doing the best with the evidence and information we have.

      --
      -1, Too Many Layers Of Abstraction
    2. Re:Truth simply is by gottabeme · · Score: 2

      You're not just talking about the limitations of reason, you're rejecting it. There's a real contradiction between the usual descriptions of God and the perceived world. This isn't a case of somebody taking reason too far, but trying to apply it at all to a very obvious issue.

      I don't understand you at all. I'm not rejecting reason. I'm simply saying that there are some questions which we cannot answer by simply thinking and speculating. We cannot prove whether there is an afterlife; we cannot prove there is a spiritual realm.

      Who cares what the "usual descriptions of God" are? What if the usual descriptions are wrong? A theory or belief is not correct because of how popular it is.

      You know what? You're right: there is a real contradiction between the usual descriptions of God and the perceived world. Therefore there are two possibilities: either the usual descriptions of God are wrong, or our perception of the world is wrong--or perhaps some of both.

      You believe God is omnipotent, omniscient, and omnibenevolent because you were told so. You're then willing to abandon reason in favor of believing what you were told, based on authority. Instead, you're willing to say that those properties don't mean what they say, or that SIDS is some sort of spiritual blessing, anything to avoid just facing the contradiction and acknowledging it. If you can't do that, then you can't think effectively about religion, and are doomed to wilful gullibility.

      I'm a bit astonished at the depth and breadth of your assumptions about me. You think you know what I believe, why I believe it, what I've been taught, but you don't actually know any of those things. And you accuse me of rejecting reason. The irony...

      I don't know what you're reading. I didn't say that SIDS or any other kind of sickness, suffering, or death is a spiritual blessing. If you want to get theological (which, if God is real, is a field just as important as science), the reason suffering exists is a very tough question. The basic answer is that we live in a fallen world. Sin exists. And God has chosen to give us free will, the ability to choose between right and wrong. Why exactly he allows our bodies to degrade and get diseases, I cannot say, other than that, when sin entered the world, it changed many things. And why that changed things, I can't say, either. I don't have all the answers, because God hasn't told us all the answers.

      The fallacy that many people operate under, perhaps including yourself, is that we must have all the answers to all our questions, or else God is either a liar or a fake. This is not logical. Just because we do not understand or agree with something does not change whether it is true.

      If you think God doesn't exist, that's your decision. I can't prove to you that he does. What may be evidence of his existence to me may seem to you to disprove his existence. It's all a matter of interpretation.

      Or if you think God does exist, but you think that because suffering exists, he's evil and not worth listening to, that's also your decision. But if this is the case, I challenge you to humble yourself and reevaluate your beliefs. Yes, it's hard to understand how a God who's claimed to be benevolent allows suffering to exist. But again, just because we don't understand or agree with something does not mean it is false, nor does it mean that God is evil because he allows it. If God really is God, then his understanding is so far beyond our own, that it's ludicrous to put ourselves in his place and pass judgment on his choices.

      Some would say that if one is forced to love someone, he doesn't really love the person at all. The same could be said about God: if he forced us to love him, would it really be love? And if we are free to choose whether to love, we must also be free to choose our other actions and beliefs.

      So maybe you think God is not actually good. But maybe you're just putting God in a box

      --
      "Those who consume the bulk of goods are those who make them. We must never forget this secret of our prosperity."