Are Some of North Korea's Long-Range Missiles Fakes?

gbrumfiel writes "North Korea has not been shy in announcing plans to destroy the United States, but questions remain over whether it has the nukes or the missiles to do so. Now NPR reports on open-source intelligence showing that one of the North's most 'advanced' weapons might actually be a decoy. Six KN-08 missiles were paraded last year, but each showed differences in the way they were assembled. Is it all a bluff? Or are the missiles part of a real program?"

Comments

Re: Duh

[peragrin]

Damn straight they did. And every communist lived in peace with their neighbors.

for the love of god

[Charliemopps]

Seriously folks... they HAVE nukes. We know this. They've detonated them underground, we've detected the flash. It's fact. (unless both they and our own government is lieing to us... a distinct possibility)

Do they have missiles that can launch them? Who gives a shit? Any ballistic missile they would have would be trivial for our military to shoot down. They do, however, have very sophisticated submarines. All they need to do is load one of their nukes on a sub and sail it into a major harbor anywhere in the world and viola, world catastrophe. This is the threat we should be worried about. The whole missile thing is just sabre rattling, irrelevant of their real capabilities. They'd need thousands to overwhelm our defenses.

Re:for the love of god

[DerekLyons]

They do, however, have very sophisticated submarines.

Sophisticated, maybe, but there's no real evidence of that openly available. Not to mention, what those that aren't obsolete or (at best and being generous) obsolescent and aren't extremely short ranged miniature boats are short range coastal submarines. The numbers may be impressive to the non professional, but their capabilities shouldn't be.
 

All they need to do is load one of their nukes on a sub and sail it into a major harbor anywhere in the world and viola, world catastrophe.

None of their boats have the range to reach more than a bare handful of the major harbors of the world. Not to mention the risk of the crew deciding they don't want to die on a certain suicide mission today and giving themselves up. (Or a subset of the crew starting a mutiny and thus ending the mission.) There's a reason why the nutjobs of the world concentrate on missiles rather than other delivery systems... missiles can be designed to operated by a trained monkey smart enough to push the Big Red Button. Unlike submarines and aircraft, they don't require intelligent and trained operators in direct operational support. And those trained monkey operators can be overseen by trained monkey security forces and both guarded by trained monkey guards - providing multiple levels of loyal support. Nutjobs absolutely loathe armed forces without a deeply loyal counter to those forces close at hand - too many times in history those armed forces have decided they'd like to take a go at being the head high nutjob.
 

This is the threat we should be worried about. The whole missile thing is just sabre rattling, irrelevant of their real capabilities. They'd need thousands to overwhelm our defenses.

And you don't think there are any anti-submarine defenses keeping an eye on their larger boats? (The handful that pose a regional threat that is.)

Re:Duh

[Richard_at_work]

I'd say that if these were the real things, they are training rounds - versions of the weapon designed to be of the right weight, size and bulk of the original, but have nothing at all to do with actually being able to be used as a real weapon.

Every military has them for every weapon they have in their stock - there are training rounds for nuclear warheads, cruise missiles and even Trident ICBMs.

The crews have to be taught how to handle the weapons, and you do not do that on a live round.

Re:Solution: decapitation

[Cassini2]

Saddam Hussein thought he had chemical weapons, and definitely wanted them.

George Bush said he had chemical weapons.

Most of the worlds intelligence agencies, including the CIA, were quietly saying they were no chemical weapons. Some of these agencies had their results taken out of context by their superiors.

If I run outside my house, stark naked, on a city street, carrying a fake gun, screaming "I have a gun!!!" The police will probably shoot me. After a while, that was what happened to Saddam Hussein.

Re:Duh

[IndustrialComplex]

What do we do with prototype units in the US?

We clean them up, paint them, and turn them into static displays for putting outside of VFWs.

Of course the missiles used in a parade are going to vary, it is a huge waste (and security risk) to have your actual assets all placed in one location and out in the open. This isn't surprising at all.

Re:Duh

[Hadlock]

There were 13 iterations of the Saturn V, they didn't even have the same paint job, let alone configuration. The first stage had anywhere between 7 and 12 helium tanks inside of the kerosene tank depending on the version. About the only similarity between each rocket was the diameter of the last stage, where it met with the Apollo capsule. Each engine was different, custom built.

Re:Some analysts say...

[Anonymous Coward]

Interesting tidbit: The USAF Thunderbird (as compared to the Navy Blue Angels) aircraft are intentionally kept combat-ready. All they have to do it paint and arm them and they are ready to be deployed.