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Console Manufacturers Want the Impossible?

Phopojijo writes "Consoles have not really been able to profitably scale over the last decade or so. Capital is sacrificed to gain control over their marketshare and, even with the excessive lifespan of this recent generation, cannot generate enough revenue with that control to be worth it. Have we surpassed the point where closed platforms can be profitable and will we need to settle on an industry body, such as W3C or Khronos, to fix a standard for companies to manage slices of and compete within?"

17 of 316 comments (clear)

  1. Really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Quite a bold statement that the console market isn't profitable, where is your source for this? MSFT posted Q1 2013 earning for the Entertainment and Devices Division:

    "generated revenues of $2.53 billion for the quarter, up 53 percent from the same period a year ago. The division includes the Xbox business and Microsoft said there is now 46 million people signed up to use its Xbox Live online service, up 18 percent from the same period a year ago."

    Seems pretty damn lucrative to me...

    1. Re:Really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      You can't prove something is profitable by making a statement about its revenues. If you look at the divisional earnings over the last 5 years it hovers around the $0 mark - profits in some quarters, losses in others - and the console segment is the least reliable earner in that division.

    2. Re:Really? by gsslay · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Article summary should be re-written;

      Console market isn't profitable in the way that some gamers would like.

    3. Re:Really? by tgd · · Score: 4, Informative

      Article summary should be re-written;

      Console market isn't profitable because there are few games being made gamers want.

      Fixed that. Seriously, Xbox one is being marketed not as a gaming console but a dvr.

      Except that its:

      a) Not being marketed at all yet
      b) Explicitly described as not having DVR capabilities

      So you're wrong on both counts. Guess you've got a case of the Tuesdays.

    4. Re:Really? by mjwx · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Quite a bold statement that the console market isn't profitable, where is your source for this? MSFT posted Q1 2013 earning for the Entertainment and Devices Division:

      "generated revenues of $2.53 billion for the quarter, up 53 percent from the same period a year ago. The division includes the Xbox business and Microsoft said there is now 46 million people signed up to use its Xbox Live online service, up 18 percent from the same period a year ago."

      Seems pretty damn lucrative to me...

      That assumes that MSFT have not costs.

      It took MSFT 3 years for the Xbox360 to stop being a loss leader (each console sold for less than what it cost MSFT to make it), it took Sony 5 years for the PS3 to stop being a loss leader. Neither have paid back the initial R&D costs.

      Sure Sony and Microsoft have lots of nice shiny revenue, but anyone in business will say "Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity". The PS3 and Xbox360 have been huge money sinks for MS and Sony.

      But I feel we're forgetting someone.... Someone who made a lot of money...

      Oh hai NINTENDO.

      Nintendo made a metric buttload of cash, paid off their R&D very quickly and never sold the Wii as a loss leader. More than that, the Wii was hugely successful. Released last and outsold Microsoft and Sony's combined console sales for 3 years. Why, because they didn't pretend the console was a PC. They made a console that for the first time since the Super Nintendo was actually fun to play. That's how you make money in the console world. Sony and Microsoft need to learn it's not about how powerful your console is, it's about how fun and accessible it is. It seems the PS4 and Xbox One have given this generation to Nintendo by default (as the Wii-U is a mediocre console).

      To say that "consoles" are unprofitable is really to say "Microsoft and Sony consoles" are unprofitable. Nintendo consoles were very profitable.

      --
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    5. Re:Really? by vux984 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I myself have a Wii sitting in my closet (the only time I bring it out is for parties, and even rarely for those). I bought 3-4 games for it, and that was it.

      I myself have a Wii sitting under my TV. It still gets played multiple times per week, even though there's a WiiU next to it. I bought a binder full of games for it over the years.

      I don't own an xbox / xbox 360 at all. I do have an HTPC hooked up to my TV though, and another 100 games there via steam / gog.com / humble bundle.

      The kids play the Wii & WiiU far more than the HTPC.

      Nintendo, by contrast, hasn't made jack-shit off me since my initial purchase

      And the only thing I've purchased from Microsofts Xbox division is an xbox controller for the HTPC.

      I doubt I'll buy a WiiU

      I don't regret mine; and the kids love it. They're getting a ton of mileage out of Nintendo Land. Netflix works particularly well with the tablet controller.

      We only have a few WiiU titles though, there is still a real dearth of good games for it, and I wouldn't necessarily recommend the WiiU to everyone at this point.

      But as the titles come out, its value proposition will continue to improve. I'm looking forward to Pikman 3.

      I have absolutely zero interest in putting up with the Xbox One; although there have been some games I'd have considered over the years that were exclusives, I have plenty enough to occupy my time and don't really miss them.

      I guess we represent different demographics. I won't pretend you don't exist if you'll return the favor.

  2. Consoles aren't profitable? by dicobalt · · Score: 5, Insightful

    *blink* *blink* No... I'm pretty sure Sony and Microsoft are making lots of money off licensing, game sales, and content distribution. The point is that the hardware itself doesn't need to be profitable.

    1. Re:Consoles aren't profitable? by RogueyWon · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That's the theory. Indeed, since Nintendo abandoned the "hardware at significant profit" philosophy as a form of emergency resuscitation for the 3DS (and hasn't gone back to it for the Wii-U) it's been the only theory in town as far as console developers go. Of course, most consoles achieve per-unit profitability after the first year or two (I got sick to death of being told that every PS2 was sold at a loss years after this ceased to be the case), but the general gist of it is that the hardware is a loss-leader and licensing is where the cash comes from. As manufacturer, other people invest to make games for your system and you cream off part of the revenue from every copy they sell.

      Unfortunately, even that model (which did very nicely for Sony through many of the PS2 years - look at the chart in TFA) is coming unstuck a bit these days. Sony are flat, Nintendo's nominal profit or loss seems entirely dependent upon what the yen has done recently (but strip that out and they seem to be losing money right now in a way that's unprecedented in the company's history) and MS's gaming income is mostly from stuff that's very marginal to... well... gaming.

      The whole console gaming industry in general is going through an odd round of self-cannibalism at the moment. There's just not enough money in the system. Console manufacturers are sinking (or have recently sunk) huge sums into R&D. At the same time, console game sales are actually falling quite sharply this year. They're caught between ultra-cheap (but mostly crap) mobile offerings and slightly-cheaper, more technically impressive PC releases of the same games (with even a basic home PC now easily able to outperform the consoles and the level of tech-savvy required lower than ever). Almost all of the big franchises which have released an installment this year - God of War, Gears of War, Dead Space etc - have seen a fall in sales on the consoles since the previous installments.

      At the same time, development costs for games have risen and are rising still further. Early in this console cycle, the rule of thumb was that an "AAA" console game needed to sell 1 million copies to break even. That figure is closer to 3 million now.

      Forget all the talk about corporate greed; barring the occasional mobile developer who gets (very) lucky, nobody in the gaming industry is raking in profits hand over fist at the moment. Stuff like online passes, day-one DLC and used-game controls aren't being implemented so that executives can have a bigger pile of gold to roll around on top of; they're fairly desperate survival strategies.

      A significant portion of the Japanese games industry has already given up (or is in the process of giving up) the ghost and pulling out of any meaningful participation in the international market, in favour of their more forgiving (and heavily kids-and-otaku-driven) domestic market. There are a couple of developers that still try to be international players (Capcom, Sega, Sony and the publishing, but not the development arm of Square-Enix), but many others have now retreated into the handheld/mobile/moe-game comfort zone that's still profitable in Japan on the basis of low development costs. Even Nintendo seems to be hiving off from the rest of the world a bit; the 3DS's much-hyped reinvigoration is overwhelmingly driven by Japanese sales; it's still underwhelming in the rest of the world.

      Western developers - and any console manufacturer who wants to be an international player - don't have that option. So manufacturers, game developers and retailers are all pretty much locked in a fight to the death with each other for the few shreds of profit left; with the irony being that they all need each other to survive.

      I think game pricing is at the heart of the problem. Games are cheaper than they used to be - a lot cheaper. In the mid-1990s, a new PC game would be 45-50GBP, with console games being more expensive still in some cases. Today, a new PC game will be 30-35GBP and most console games launch at 40GBP but are discount

    2. Re: Consoles aren't profitable? by Mabhatter · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The truth is that Microsoft forced $6 billion into the system to try to takeover... When there was NEVER $6 billion in profit to make back without knocking Sony or Nontendo out and gaining back control.

      Basically nobody LOST which means in a good capitalist system there isn't that much profit to go around... Even though Microsoft was trying hard make it a non-free market which is where they were pulling all their numbers for investors from.

  3. What They Want by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    They want:
    - top dollar for their hardware (even if it is lacking in horsepower or hard drive space)
    - high game prices (of which they want a higher percentage)
    - high monthly fees for the privilege of playing those games
    - lots of DLC that they get a piece of
    - draconian DRM & no used game sales
    - customers who won't complain about the shitty service and performance of their oversold networks

    Not to mention that they want none of this for their competition.

  4. About to change by neokushan · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's probably not a coincidence that the PS4 and Xbox One are both running x86 chips inside them. Aside from a few choice bits, developing on each machine should be incredibly similar to the point where it's just a different API for either.

    The best part is that this should translate equally well to the PC industry. If Valve does the SteamBox right, we might just have that "standard" the article is clamouring for. If Valve mandates that a certain level of Steambox has at least an 8-core x86 CPU with a GPU of equivalent power and 8GB of RAM (or better yet, convinces AMD to release an SoC similar to what's inside the PS4), we'll have 3 very different platforms that are easy to develop for, even easier to port to and a golden age of gaming where your platform of choice won't massively impact the games you can play.

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    1. Re:About to change by slim · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's probably not a coincidence that the PS4 and Xbox One are both running x86 chips inside them. Aside from a few choice bits, developing on each machine should be incredibly similar to the point where it's just a different API for either.

      The faster CPUs get, and the better optimising compilers get, the less likely anyone is to code directly in assembly. I think APIs are probably much more significant to games developers than the underlying chips.

    2. Re:About to change by neokushan · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That is true, but there's always been more to it with consoles. While people don't necessarily drop down to assembler as much these days, it's still worth getting to grips with each console's underlying design in order to get the most from it. Take the PS3, its well known that it has CELL chips but writing code for it can't really be left up to the compiler to sort out, you have to know when to use the CELL over the PPC chip, you have to know the best way to package that data and send it, when it's optimal to do so versus when it's going to hinder performance. It has two different types of RAM and it's worth knowing which is best to use and when.

      Even the Xbox 360, although much "simpler" to develop for, has a few exotic bits you don't find on the PC - like the ED-RAM on the GPU that can boost performance considerably as long as you know how to use it effectively. I believe both the PS4 and the Xbox One have a few subtle differences that'll be worth paying attention to, but they're a lot closer to the design of a regular PC than previous consoles (with the possible exception of the Xbox).

      --
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  5. Re:Simple answer. by slim · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Because the free market decided that selling console hardware as a loss-leader and trying to make up for it in game licenses and market share was a good business model. The problem is, it was a horrible business model and was doomed from the start.

    ...

    The problem is, "people" want a cheap console and don't appear to be fazed by rip-off game prices. This has been proven over the years.

    Don't those two statements contradict each other? As long as people want a cheap console, and don't mind paying big money for games, then selling hardware as a loss-leader is a very sound business model. It worked for at least three generations of hardware.

    It may cease to work in the current climate, but I think that's because people's desires have changed, and gaming has become cheap and practical on ubiquitous general-purpose hardware. That is, people buy an iPad or an Android tablet for other reasons, and find they can buy adequate games for less than $2 a pop.

  6. Let me get this straight... by MachineShedFred · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So an American corporation takes a long view on a business proposition rather than playing the short con quarterly filing scams, and this is a bad thing?

    Remember when that's the way business worked? Microsoft (at least, this division) is actually doing it right, and not bending to the whims of shareholders and 10Q filings with the SEC.

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  7. When it is MS doing something by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It is bad on Slashdot. People here love to hate MS, so if MS takes the long view on something, that's bad. If they take the short view on something else, that's also bad. It is a matter of zealotry, not fact.

    In fact MS has been good at the long view idea for quite some time. When they get in to a market, often their first showing isn't that impressive. Many companies who do that say "Oh well, guess we can't compete," and fold. MS sticks with it, keeps improving, keeps trying. They don't always do that, and when they do they don't always succeed, but they've done it a lot.

  8. Re:A solution for the wrong problem by Animats · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The same thing happened to special effects on TV shows and in movies

    True. Visual effects have become good, but not cheap. We no longer have movies with a "cast of thousands", we have animation staffs of thousands. Look at the credits.

    About a decade ago, I was talking to a Hollywood director about this. He'd done some films that had live and animated characters interacting. The cost of doing that was high. He was hoping that, in a few years, he'd be able to make $100 million movies for $20 million. It's not working out that way.

    There was hope for that in games. Procedural generation was going to make it possible to have huge cities without huge teams of artists building them. Didn't work out. SpeedTree can generate huge forests and outdoor scenes cheaply and well, so you can have a huge, mostly empty natural world like Red Dead Redemption. Cities, not so much. There was much interest in procedural city generation around 2009, but what comes out is usually only good enough to fly over.