Slashdot Mirror
Half a Billion PCs To Ship In 2013, As Desktops and Laptops Dip But Tablets Grow
An anonymous reader writes "The PC market (desktops, notebooks, and tablets) is expected to see almost half a billion units ship this year, 493.1 million to be exact, representing 7 percent year-on-year growth. Unsurprisingly, the key driver behind this growth will be tablets, accounting for 37 percent of the overall market and seeing 59 percent growth to 182.5 million units. The latest estimates come from Canalys, an independent analyst firm. Nevertheless, it's worth emphasizing that these are estimates, though they do line up with what the broader industry is seeing: desktops are down, laptops are down, but tablets are up."
Exactly, tablets are replacing casual users devices and in some cases portable devices for professionals. As for desktops, even enthusiasts have no compelling reason to upgrade from sandy/ivy bridge or their AMD platform of choice(I'm not so up on the latest AMD stuff, Phenom x4 was my last one.) PCs in what ever firm they take are not dying. Some PC companies with outdated business models maybe, PCs themselves, no.
In a cybernetic fit of rage she pissed off to another age...
PC's are big, expensive, power hungry and noisy.
Tablets are small, cheap, portable, silent, generally have a camera, speakers, and microphone which gives them built in telephony features, and an easy UI. I can buy a decent tablet for less than $100 on eBay or the local discount store.
What are the redeeming qualities of a PC? Tactile IO: there is something to be said about a typing with a keyboard as opposed to a flat screen. Better audio and video quality: its just has a bigger screen and a better presentation system then a system with micro speaker and 7" screen. Deeper interfaces. For all the issues that Window's has its can do more then a tablet OS. Modularity, Upgrade-ability, and repair-ability: If I want a bigger screen I buy one for my PC. If want bigger screen in tablet I have to buy a whole new machine.
For these issue PC's will always be around. But they will get pushed in the development and special needs category in the next decade or so. Tablets will keep coming down in prices. Operation system like Ubuntu that give tablets more of the PC's feature. One off devices like the Roku and game systems like the XBox One will take up the home media center and entertainment.
You say things that offend me and I can deal with it. Can you?
Yes, but I'm also saddened for a generation of kids who grow up interacting w/ computers to only consume media, not to create.
Steve Jobs put forth that computers were ``bicycles for the mind'' [1] --- but this switch to tablets is taking general purpose computers out of the hands of our kids and replacing it w/ an interactive TV. While there have been some web mentionings of it [2] I can't find a copy of the ad, or a full set of the quotes. [3]
Where are the brilliant creativity and programming tools for Tablets? (and I say this as a person who uses Autodesk Sketchbook, Creaturehouse Expression, Futurewave SmartSketch, Macromedia FreeHand, Runtime Revolution and Lotus Improv on his Tablet PC)
I'd love to have a list of great creativity tools for tablets (though I wonder how much good it'll do --- I've been unsuccessful in getting my son to d/l and install Petit Computer [4] )
1 - http://folklore.org/StoryView.py?story=Bicycle.txt
2 - http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2011/12/21/steve-jobs-bicycle-for-the-mind-1990/
3 - http://creativityandinnovation.blogspot.com/2011/10/steve-jobs-amazing-quotes.html
4 - http://www.petitcomputer.com/
Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow.
Do we know what the reason is?
You have to look at it from the perspective of a non-technical user. Traditional computers are hard. Tablets are comparatively easy. For example:
1. Downloading software is hard. Non-technical users are thinking: What web site do I use to download X? Where do I click to download X? What version do I want? 32-bit or 64-bit? I'm so confused!
2. Locating where software was downloaded is hard. Non-technical users are thinking: Okay, I think I downloaded it -- now what? Do I need to open this Windows Explorer / Finder thing? Where do I navigate?
3. Being confident you didn't make any mistakes is hard. Non-technical users are thinking: I sure hope I got this from a reputable source. My friend says it's reputable, but I'm not sure if it is -- and I don't know how to check myself. Did I answer all the installer questions correctly? What if I told it the wrong answer?
4. Keeping software up to date is hard. Non-technical users may constantly be at risk of running outdated versions that have security bugs. And they really, really don't want to go through the scary and painful steps 1 through 3 again. And even then, they wonder if they're doing it right.
5. Knowing what to run to keep yourself safe is hard. Non-technical users are thinking: Should I be running McAfee? My co-worker says so. But my friend says to use Norton. And the guy at the PC repair shop says I should run Microsoft Security Essentials plus some other strange utilities. How am I supposed to know what to do and who to trust? I don't want someone to steal my bank sign in when I do online banking! :-(
6. Traditional PCs are always pestering you about one thing or another. Updates are available for your computer. Updates are available for your anti-virus. You haven't run your anti-virus in a week. Flash needs an update. Java needs an update. Reboot. Reboot again. Where the fuck did this Ask Toolbar come from? Am I doing all of this right? Oh no, I think I clicked the wrong button, and now I can't get the update window back! Oh no, I forgot about this application I installed last year and now I see it's three versions out of date. Have I been at risk the whole time? I hate computers.
7. Traditional PCs suffer from bit rot. Non-technical users are thinking: Why is my computer so slow? Should I buy a new one? My friend said I should reinstall the OS but I have no idea how to do that. How do I save my data before I do that? How do I restore my data afterwards?
Or... they can just buy a tablet that makes everything much easier for them, and doesn't make them feel stupid, scared, and overwhelmed. The nice folks at the Apple Store will even help them pick a tablet, create an account, sign up for iCloud, etc. And then everything just works.
Okay, I know tablets aren't a usability panacea, but they're FAR easier than traditional PCs -- especially for the stuff "regular" people want to do.
Traditional computers (laptops, desktops) could become similarly easy, and companies like Microsoft and Apple are moving in that direction, but they are moving very slowly... thus the success of tablets.