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World Population Could Reach Nearly 11 Billion By 2100
vinces99 writes "A new analysis shows that world population could reach nearly 11 billion by the end of this century, according to a United Nations report issued June 13. That's about 800 million, or about 8 percent, more than the previous projection issued in 2011. The change is largely because birth rates in Africa have not declined as quickly as had been expected, according to Adrian Raftery of the University of Washington's Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences. The U.N. estimates use statistical methods developed at the center. The current African population is about 1.1 billion and it is now expected to reach 4.2 billion, nearly a fourfold increase, by 2100, Raftery said."
Unless we can support that much life with food, water and other resources, war for diminishing resources will wipe out enough population before we even get close to that.
Predictions of Malthusian nightmares rarely seem to take birth control into account. We should keep in mind that effective hormonal birth control has only been widely available in the West since the seventies. In that short (yes, very short) amount of time it had to become both cheap enough and socially acceptable enough to make a demographic dent. We're only beginning to see the effects but even so 48% of the world's population lives in countries with sub-replacement fertility rates. Immigration props up most of the developed world demographically, but even so countries with some of the most advanced economies, like Germany and Japan, are experiencing a contraction of their populations. Indeed the latter, with its aversion to immigration, faces demographic collapse.
There's a lot of reason to be concerned about pressure of resources as the developing world grows and developing economies advance. But much of the increased pressure is caused by people taking on aspects of Western life--consumerism, purchase of electronic conveniences which become apparent necessities (cell phone, computers, etc), and the increasing use of cars. But aside from stable polities, few things make life more comfortable in the West than birth control. If there was a bit of lag time, and indeed a small amount, before widespread adoption of birth control in the West would make a demographic difference, why should we not expect developing countries to follow suit shortly?
Africa will still be a pathetic continent with no human development
I don't know about you, but human development in Africa was way ahead of human development on other continents for hundreds of thousands of years. That's got to count for something.
Ezekiel 23:20
Actually desalinization is coming down in price rapidly, in part because of better osmotic processes in part because cheaper and more efficient solar energy makes it more economical (bonus: most places where water is scarce are sunny).
human development in Africa was way ahead of human development on other continents for hundreds of thousands of years.
Primitive man didn't first leave Africa that much evolutionarily sooner than did H. Sapiens.
That's got to count for something.
Not really. Why do you think they left?
"I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
I've said for years it won't slow down like they think.
You are already seeing subcultures in the 1st world which are breeding at a higher rate for a variety of reasons (religion is significant).
If you view humans as a virus- those which breed quickly seem plausible to become the dominant group in the population.
Sad, because the earth is a paradise at about 2 to 3 billion.
We are way past the earth's carrying capacity and it's too late to change anything.
I expect that, like deer, we'll do fine until there is a glitch, virus, etc. and then a billion or more will die fairly quickly. Hopefully after I'm dead of natural causes.
We are making a lot of progress on disease so I'm thinking disruption of food delivery or destruction of water supply is more likely-- lots of aquifers being drawn down now.
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.