Have We Hit Peak HFT?
CowboyRobot writes "There was a time when people wanted the fastest networks so that they could trade at lightning speeds. They deployed the smartest formulas at trading venues where no one could know who was asking for that big block of stocks on the other end of the deal. It was a wild time and people made a lot of money along with some very unwise decisions. Wall Street seems to be acting out the lyrics to a Don Henley song. The party's over, the hangover is raging and no one really knows what happened the night before. The number of shares traded via high-frequency trading are down and politicians want to roll out a tax to serve as a speed bump. Iowa Senator Tom Harkin and Oregon Representative Peter DeFazio want a .03 percent tax on nearly every trade in nearly every market in the U.S. Some are wondering if microsecond dealings are poised to fade away. As the founder of HFT firm Tower Research Capital Mark Gorton puts it, 'The easy money's gone. We're doing more things better than ever before and making less money doing it.'"
HFT is a symptom of a deeply broken system. We need to really start to recognise that profit isn't all and long term stewardship of our instituitions and systems is key to our long term quality of live. For everyone.
I want a list of atrocities done in your name - Recoil
They would know that people who execute a lot of trades get big discounts. HUGE discounts. If you are doing more than 20,000 or 100,000 trades a month, you start to trade at a fraction of the cost of a normal investor.
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=commission&p=futures3
With this fee structure, a HFT can get in and out and make money. A normal trader would lose money on the exact same trade. For the average guy, the trade might be profitable, but the trade commission is greater than the profit. Exchanges give a lot of incentives to traders who bring big volume.
I have a major issue with a system where two different traders make the exact same trade, but one loses money while the other makes a profit.
I'm not suggesting eliminating the lower fees for more active traders. I would like to see the gap between the highest commission and the lowest commission close. This simple change would work wonders to level the playing field. If the highest commission was limited to 130% of the lowest commission, the high frequency traders would lose most of their advantage.
As economic theory would predict, the money that was being made by HFT isn't any more because more and more people are getting to play the same game. The virtue of HFT is the liquidity that it brings to the markets, but at the cost of possible software caused chaos, as we've seen on a few occasions. On the whole it's probably worth tolerating, because the alternative is likely to see 'regulation arbitrage' as players go round any new rules.
If HFT is the latest shtick in "providing liquidity", then it really is arbitrage. And by its very nature, do enough of that and the opportunities exhaust themselves. In fact, the infrastructure built to support HFT improves access for other traders, too.
I think taxes may not be necessary, and probably would do more damage than good anyway. The big trouble with HFT isn't the trade volume, but the "probing" volume, offers made then withdrawn so quickly nobody can take'em.
I'm with the NANEX bunch on this; simply require that offers be good for a minimum timespan so that completely fake offers are unaffordable, for someone might take the offer. That saves the cost and administrative overhead of another senseless tax that hits far wider than the problem it purports to solve, but then doesn't.
The main reason for HFT is to "front run" the market, to game the traditional customers of the price discovery mechanism, and make a risk-less profit. This dis-incentivises the market for everyone else, who see it as corruption and move their money elsewhere.
The big picture though is one of a big liquidity event, in which the velocity of money is rapidly falling as everyone tries to save up enough cash to ride out the oncoming greater depression. The rapid printing of money is showing up in the 17% growth of the M3 Money Supply, but is getting hoarded up by banks and corporations as rapidly as it's getting created. This is the only thing keeping inflation from at bay, for now.
Once the Tsunami of dollars starts to find its way to main street, and chasing goods and services, an inflationary wave will hit us all, and we'll learn to get used to $10/gallon gasoline, and they start to remember it fondly not much later.
The share tax in France and Italy doesn't affect us investors much. But if you're in to make a 30% return, you don't care about the 0.03%+0.03% buy and sell taxes anyway. It's only the traders, and they add nothing to the investment market, they're just skimming off some of the margin between buyer and seller.
IMHO, the biggest problem with the stock markets is delayed quotes. The big guys have the real time prices, the small guys have a fake price, from 20 minutes ago. This is a big problem with European stock exchanges. How can you have a market if you're lying to people about the current prices?!
That's what I'd like to see ended. The two tier price quote system.
The stock markets make us little investors deliberately ignorant of the true price, they then sell that ignorance as 'real-time-quotes- to the big guys. They should be forced to charge one fee to everyone for the same quotes, and stop deliberately deceiving investors into the market.
Real world value does not change in millisecond increments, except for earthquakes and nuclear holocaust. Therefor the profit in HFT is extracted by decreasing value for non-HFC entities (that would be you). It's analogous to entropy.
The value extracted by the insiders disproportionately degrades the system for everyone else. It's equivalent to oil production in the Nigerian delta. The people who live there have a horribly destroyed environment, and people far away make huge profits.
HFT is vulnerable to mistakes and deliberate manipulation. Can you say Flash Crash? Remember, there is no real time way to tell the difference between a misbehaving algorithm and a deliberate market manipulation or a hostile attack. It's not even clear that you can differentiate after the event is over.
Anyone with a shred of self preservation should be scared shitless by this situation. For Wall Street HFT is a sacred institution, and any attempt to reign in the abuse is treated as an attempt to defile a holy site. They own the casino, and given the centrality of international banking institutions, everyone is forced to bet no matter what.
Wall Street types should be treated like meth freaks with rabies, because that's how they behave. They are actively dismantling the world economy for their own individual gain, and if they are not stopped there will be nothing left to save.
Why is Snark Required?
That's not true, unless by smaller "Mom and Pop" investors the author really means semi-professional, day-trading arbitrageurs. I am a small time investor trying to make retirement savings grow by hunting for safe stocks with high dividend yields. What matters much, much more to me is that I can't get a decent interest rate on CDs or money market because of pro-Wall Street and pro-big bank FED policies.
Why does HFT matter to me? It really doesn't. Sure, in theory some HFT algo is going to snap up bargains ahead of me, but they're also shorting the bogeys so I'm always going to get the fair price. Stop the FUD.
Basically this holds that a large public market is information-efficient. That is the current market prices reflect all publicly available information.
There are a variety of variations on this theme which mostly reflect the strength of the adherence to the hypothesis.
My particular belief is that the semi-strong form of the hypothesis is probably the correct one. You may have temporary bubbles, and markets that have poor disclosure requirements can be inefficient; these disallow the strong form of the hypothesis.
The main reason for the semi-strong being correct is that even market insiders with the best analytical tools are unable to consistently outperform the market averages. Most mutual funds, hedge funds, pensions and endowments actually underperform the market when trading costs are compensated for. Those that do outperform cannot do it on a consistent basis. There is no correlation between good performance one year and the next.
The idea that the game is rigged and only insiders have a chance is provably wrong. An individual investor using minimum cost passive investing strategies and good diversification will consistently outperform professionally managed portfolios just because of the lower costs. Any advantages that deviations from EMH are too small to overcome the trading costs needed to take advantage of the inefficiency.
Now that HFC trading is mature, it is showing the same efficient market behavior. It just isn't worth the costs because the market has wrung out any advantages of this mode of trading.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis