Seismic Data Set Could Improve Earthquake Forecasting

sciencehabit writes "Geoscientists still can't predict when a major quake will strike, and many have given up trying. But many do try to issue more general forecasts of hazards and potential damage. This week, researchers added a potentially powerful new tool to their kit: the largest seismic database of its kind ever constructed, based on tens of thousands of earthquake records stretching back more than 1,000 years. Together with a new global map of strain accumulation at plate boundaries, the data sets will form the core of an international public-private partnership intended to reshape the science of earthquake forecasting."

Comments

Good think, but do not expect too much

[gweihir]

It is highly unlikely this will yield a method if any reliability. Natural phenomena are rarely so complicated that some prediction heuristic cannot be established from experience, if such a heuristic is possible. It may still help a lot for longer-term risk evaluation and therefore is entirely desirable. But "there are no silver bullets" applies just as much here as it does in other fields.