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Why Microsoft Shouldn't Worry About Cannibalizing Their Userbases

New submitter coyote_oww writes "A ComputerWorld analysis article suggests that Microsoft should stop worrying about one product cutting into another product's sales, and concentrate on putting their best foot foward regardless of the impact on product lines. The big impact would be the price of Windows: '... Microsoft must, at least in the main, sell devices based on lower prices. And the only significant component of a Windows-powered device that can be cut further — hardware margins are at or very near the bone, and have been for years — is the Windows license.' It's still possible they could sell Windows versions at different rates for different devices, but that could get hard to justify to consumers over the long haul."

37 of 180 comments (clear)

  1. New license model: Free! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Release windows for free, and we will finally see how it competes.

    1. Re:New license model: Free! by crutchy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      no need to apologize. the op was more thought-provoking than many other comments on /.

      i've read plenty about microsoft's anti-competitive business practices, with linux advocates claiming that windows would be wiped out if linux and windows were on the same level of competition, and mostly i agree with those sentiments, but it is also interesting to tip that on its head and imagine how well linux would compete if it had to compete with a free and open source version of windows. i know its just an armchair exercise because it will never happen, but if linux wasn't licensed under the GPL and was sold at a similar price as windows, would it have any hope at all?

      having used linux i personally think it is probably preferable to windows for servers, and many companies do pay for enterprise linux servers. if linux had an equal footing in applications from vendors like adobe and autodesk i think it might do ok on the desktop, but i don't think it would be a clear winner because desktop windows and linux (as operating systems, notwithstanding availability of applications) their user experiences really aren't that different nowadays. linux has security benefits in filesystem permissions that are actually used, but its sometimes at the expense of ease of use that windows has, although this video kind of pokes a few holes in that with respect to vista http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxOIebkmrqs

    2. Re:New license model: Free! by niftymitch · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Release windows for free, and we will finally see how it competes.

      TFT (the fine title) suggests that they can still charge for windows as long as they keep eating the windows users (or only their bases?) without worry - and this "without worry" is somehow the miraculous key to the solution.

      Not for free but they need to understand that as you suck harder and harder on the udder of a cash cow the less friendly that cow will be to you and will dry up or kick you in the head.

      At this point it is difficult to believe that MS has not realized an honest profit from the honest investments it has made. They have done a lot of service but there is a point when the business model must change.

      Worthy computers can be had for yuppiy pocket change and free software has gotten well beyond the experimental stages. Especially in server land.

      The home computer model has changed, and there will be less and less need for WindowZ. My smart TV has more compute power than my early on desktops. Which were well beyond my 6502, MC14500 and 8080 processor based projects. It is a new day, MS and many others need to take stock or see their financial models fall apart.

      Servers and server farms will grow.... but be in the hands of a small number of companies. In the price range of a UPS delivery van small companies will have local computer resources than can be installed and serviced by folk at an equivalent level of a USP van driver. Yes the Brown UPS vans are a marvel of technology but they make money delivering packages shipped for sub $10... that is astounding.

      Chromebooks and the new XO tablet are showing that the old models are fragile and new ideas are welcome.

      Raspberry-Pi and project boards like the pandaboard and Beaglebone Black are showing that sufficiently interesting hardware need not cost a lot of $$. Invest $100 in these school and development boards and revisit your education.

      The future is at hand -- yet again.

      --
      Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't. Mark Twain.
    3. Re:New license model: Free! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I routinely use both Linux and Win7, depending on the client I'm dealing with.

      A well set up Linux is easily the more responsive environment, and has less annoyances and inconsistent behaviors than the Windows equivalent. Simple stuff like using USB drives or wireless networking just works better. Switching back to W7 feels like wading through glue after a day or two on Linux.

      If both OSs were priced the same, had identical OEM and software vendor support, I have no doubt people would largely choose Linux.

    4. Re:New license model: Free! by jbolden · · Score: 2

      but if linux wasn't licensed under the GPL and was sold at a similar price as windows, would it have any hope at all?

      Its hard to imagine what that would even mean. The open source ecosystem is what makes Linux, Linux. Its like asking if lions didn't eat meat would they be as feared? If they don't eat meat they just aren't lions anymore.

      The Unix server market was rather big. While Linux being free helped Linux displace Sun, SGI, Digital Unix, HPUX, IBM I don't think free had much to do with it beating Windows. On the other hand without Linux, LAMP never happens and thus Windows probably wins the server world and we don't have an open web. From there history is just too different.

    5. Re:New license model: Free! by TractorBarry · · Score: 2, Informative

      Nope. People would only choose Linux if the programs they wished to use were available on Linux. It's all about the programs.

      Nobody uses a computer just to play with the operating system (apart from people writing operating systems)

      --
      Sky subscribers are morons. They pay to be advertised at !
  2. Different versions of Windows by ArcadeMan · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You know what I want? A lower-cost Windows targeted at gamers. I don't need drivers for scanners, printers, fax and other unnecessary crap if all I do is play games on it.

    A Windows with less processes running would also mean a faster computer able to dedicate more resources to the games instead of crap I don't need.

    1. Re:Different versions of Windows by Your.Master · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That's basically what an xbox is.

      I guess the implication is that you want something that compromises between Windows PCs and XBox on some points. Which raises the question of what is the right compromise position?

    2. Re:Different versions of Windows by tapspace · · Score: 3, Interesting

      What would happen is the "gamer" version would be one of the (fragmented) premium versions, so you'd end up paying more for less. Plus, who wants a computer that you can't connect to a printer in a pinch if need be, just because you don't have the right windoze license?

    3. Re:Different versions of Windows by ArcadeMan · · Score: 2

      If Windows Gamer Edition only cost 20$ I guess people wouldn't complain much about things like printers.

    4. Re:Different versions of Windows by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      You don't work in IT, do you?

    5. Re:Different versions of Windows by intermodal · · Score: 3, Funny

      The cool thing about this is inevitably somebody would hack CUPS into Windows...

      --
      In SOVIET RUSSIA... erm...NSA AMERICA, the Internet logs onto YOU!
    6. Re:Different versions of Windows by realmolo · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You don't know what you are talking about.

      When a game runs on Windows, it ALREADY gets all the resources it wants.

      A stripped-down version fo Windows wouldn't make your games run faster. Modern games are mostly video-card limited. And since there is no standard hardware platform for a PC, programmers can only do so much optimization before they break compatibility.

    7. Re:Different versions of Windows by jedidiah · · Score: 2

      What kind of idiot spends $1500 on a PC in 2013?

      I spent half that for my current PC 3 years ago and I'm still hard pressed to find a reason to replace it.

      With a cheap video card upgrade, a 5 year old craptacular machine can be a respectable casual gaming machine. It's not 1988 anymore. You don't have to pay through the nose for hardware anymore. System software needs to keep in step with that.

      $100 is overpriced for this years version of a well entrenched monopoly product. If not for vendor-lock, the value of that product would be $0.

      --
      A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
    8. Re:Different versions of Windows by the_B0fh · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So funny that Mac and iOS users are so much happier with their systems (even in Korea, where iPhone and iPad took first place in customer satisfaction away from Samsung), but the haters who don't use it, my god, it's like a jealous ex-lover. They cannot stop telling you how much your current lover sucks, even though you're happy with it.

      Get over it. Be happy with your choice, and move on, rather than keeping on and harping and bitching about other people's choices.

    9. Re:Different versions of Windows by war4peace · · Score: 2

      That's basically what an xbox is.

      Yeah it's an XBox which can also run Linux, EVE Online, Neverwinter, Firefall, World of Tanks, WoW, Path of Exile and so on, and so forth.

      You seem to confuse a stripped down Windows (which is essentially an OS) with the hardware behind it.

      Explained differently:
      Let's assume I own a powerful PC. Has a Haswell platform with a potent GPU and lots of RAM. My main OS is Linux. But I also game a lot, mostly Windows games. Wouldn't it be awesome to be able to buy a Windows "gaming edition" for 15 bucks and load it with zounds of free-to-play MMOs?

      --
      ...gis sdrawkcab (usually not responding to ACs; don't bother posting as AC)
    10. Re:Different versions of Windows by KingMotley · · Score: 2

      $100 is overpriced for this years version of a well entrenched monopoly product. If not for vendor-lock, the value of that product would be $0.

      I think you are on to something there. Write me an OS that can run all my games and applications on it in a user friendly manner that I don't have to spend days googling the right command to type in to get it what I need it to do, and support the major video cards out there running in SLI, the major chipsets, RAID drivers, etc etc, and sell it for $0, and I'm sure it will be a hit.

      If it was so overly priced you'd have a ton of competitors out there. Oh wait, no, there isn't. And I suspect no, you won't spend the 200 million man hours writing the OS and then release it for free either. Until then, $100 seems like a pretty good deal.

    11. Re:Different versions of Windows by walshy007 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This may surprise you, but linux has had better hardware compatibility out of the box than windows for quite some time.

      I don't expect linux to support windows games, just like I don't expect modern windows to support dos games. It's legacy.

    12. Re:Different versions of Windows by Dayze!Confused · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yeah, the real hog is the System Idle Process, I see that taking up to 99% of my systems processing power when I'm not even doing anything. Find a way to get rid of that and you'll be golden.

      --
      "All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent." [Thomas Jefferson]
    13. Re: Different versions of Windows by KingMotley · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This may suprise you, but that is only true if you want to support old hardware. Anything cutting edge is more likely supported by windows than Linux, and since I have more cutting edge hardware than old relics, it isn't true for me.

    14. Re:Different versions of Windows by hairyfeet · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The sad part? The pirates have had it for a fricking decade now and it kicks MAJOR ass, in fact it makes Linux look like a beached whale in August by comparison.

      I'm of course talking about the "Tiny" Windows builds that have been going on since Tiny2K, came out around 2001. The TinyXP used just 48Mb of memory on the desktop, Tiny 2K3 Workstation just 63Mb, and Tiny 7 uses as little as 256Mb for a full desktop but of course with superfetch any extra RAM will be used to speed up the system. The one exception would be Tiny Vista which took 512Mb for the desktop but hey, they're gamers not miracle workers.

      So anybody that wants to give them a try I'm sure can find a copy easily enough, but why MSFT don't hire these guys I'll never know as frankly their builds kick the shit out of WinFLP and Embedded as far as footprint and CPU usage goes while letting you run all your Windows software, its truly crazy how little those builds use while giving you everything you need to make a kick ass gaming PC OS that uses less than the consoles do to run the OS.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    15. Re:Different versions of Windows by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Windows people still seem to be under the impression that linux is hard. It's not like that any-more. Ubuntu and Mint are much easier, and are less bloated/expensive than Windows.

  3. Suspicious article by schneidafunk · · Score: 5, Informative

    The article is on ComputerWorld, which is owned by IDG. They are quoting a research analyst from IDC, which is also owned by IDG. What's the motivation for writing this article?

    --
    Some people die at 25 and aren't buried until 75. -Benjamin Franklin
  4. Yes. by ackthpt · · Score: 4, Funny

    Steve should consider throwing his best chair forward.

    --

    A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    1. Re: Yes. by ackthpt · · Score: 2

      I see lots of flying chairs in the future of MS.

      May be the saving of the Entertainment division - Steve's MMO Chair Throwing Extravaganza

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
  5. synergy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    from the article: "As part of the reorganization, Microsoft will consolidate all of its client OSes, including Windows 8, Windows RT, Windows Phone 8, Windows Embedded and Xbox, into a single engineering group [...] The Windows desktop client and mobile have a lot of common functionality, and a combined group could have a lot of synergy".
    I fully agree, that's a good strategy (and it was about time)... oh, and one o the few times the word "synergy" makes sense!

    1. Re:synergy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      It sounds like he's proactively reorganizing the corporate paradigm to maximize cross-platform synergy and leverage integrated competencies.

  6. "You have to kill your own babies" by whoever57 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The motto of the CEO at a company I worked for many years ago.

    --
    The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
    1. Re:"You have to kill your own babies" by macromorgan · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The important thing to remember is in a competitive economy, someone is going to disrupt your business. It might as well be you. Fighting against it only postpones the inevitable.

  7. Yeesh. How cheap do people expect things? by msobkow · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Windows is a product. When you buy it pre-installed on a machine, prices are already cut to the bone with volume discounts to the manufacturer. Someone has to pay for the security updates, the patches, and so on when it's run by a monolithic corporation instead of an open source community.

    I've no beef with the price I paid for my Win7 laptop -- and I know that maybe $50-100 of that purchase price was for the Windows license. Perfectly reasonable.

    I use Ubuntu LTS on my "main" machine, but that's because I like Linux, not because Windows is "too expensive."

    Furthermore, precisely what product line would be cannibalized by cutting Windows prices further? WinPhone (which no one wants and is a different code base)? WinRT (which no one wants because it's a piece of incompatible crap)? XBox (which doesn't even have an installable OS)?

    This article is essentially flamebait to spark discussion, and nothing more. There is nothing pragmatic or realistic about it.

    --
    I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
  8. Easy for us to say by paiute · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Cannibalize your own product line before the competition does is an obvious necessity, yet it is the hardest thing for managers to actually do.

    --
    If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
  9. Microsoft's decline is directly correlated with by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    the introduction of Windows Genuine Advantage.

    Before WGA was introduced, most people thought windows came free when they purchased a new computer. The rather high price for the OS was completely obfuscated. The cost was hidden because there was no impediment to installing a copy onto any machine so they thought it was free. All you needed was a copy. Well, MS decided they wanted to get paid for all of those installs. So, they introduced WGA. So, what happened... Well, people still bought new machines... But, when they went to use the new OS version on their old machines it didn't work because it could only be validated on one machine... Now, people still wanted the new OS so they went to see how much it cost and they were horrified by how much a copy of windows cost.

    This left people with four choices:
    1. Don't upgrade... (Look at how long it has taken to get people to stop using Win XP.)
    2. Pay the high price. (Probably not)
    3. Bootleg a copy. (Bit-torrent has lots of copies)
    4. Look someplace else. (Have you noticed how well Apple has been doing lately)

    Notice, in all but one unlikely scenario, MS doesn't make anymore money than they did before the introduction of WGA. But what they have done is enlighten people to the true cost of MS windows. Additionally, when someone doesn't upgrade or goes with an alternative to Windows, then third party applications suffer because the installed base of the current windows is diminished...

    MS quite simply destroyed their own monopoly by trying to get people to pay for something they would never pay for.

    Every time MS releases a new OS I keep thinking they would figure this out and drop WGA but they keep on striving for a smaller and smaller market share.

    Simply put, having a solid monopoly is MUCH more valuable than the few sales they have made as a result of WGA...
    Oh and lets not forget, WGA just pisses people off so as a paying customer... You get punished... Great business model if you want to shrink your market share.

    1. Re:Microsoft's decline is directly correlated with by Dr.+Evil · · Score: 3, Insightful

      WGA stopped the wholesale OEM piracy from the organized crime shops. They were even producing holograms, shiny boxes, "certificates of authenticity" etc. Palates of this counterfeit software would be shipped through quasi-legit channels into serious software retailers for realistic prices.

      Casual piracy of Windows doesn't affect MS. Your PC probably shipped with the OS anyway. The high volume of XP licenses out there are businesses who were hoping for something better than Win7 before XP began to disappear. Few people are running machines old enough to have shipped with original XP licenses. Who wants a 256MB of RAM, 20GB HDD machine from 2002 anyway?

      MS is dying because Ballmer is an f-ing idiot.

  10. Microsoft is not a monolithic entity. by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The article talks as though Microsoft is a monolithic entity that will like a single intent. Like any large organization there it is a conglomeration of parts and they mostly act in their self interest than the interest of the whole organization. Most of the time there is a large overlap between the self interest and interest of the larger body. But Microsoft has some perverse incentives like giving part of the revenue stream from a product line as compensation to the top managers of that line. Sounds great in theory as a motivation factor but it can backfire too. These people in top management well versed in the palace intrigues have to let some other part cannibalize their revenue stream for the interest of the organization as a whole. The track record is they won't. Only when the "partner level" managers' bonuses (or is it bonii?) are tied to the over all performance of the company, not the individual parts under their control, they will let internal cannibalization. But letting their bonii depend on large parts of the company they have no control over is a tough sell too. It is a problem that developed over a long time. It won't be solved in short time.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  11. Re:Yeesh. How cheap do people expect things? by jbengt · · Score: 2

    Windows is a product.

    Are you sure? Last time I checked, I can only license it, not buy it like I buy products. Also, if it is a product, how come, from the best I can tell by reading the license, product liability doesn't cover it?

  12. Don't interfere with your enemy by Tough+Love · · Score: 2

    Don't interfere with your enemy while they are busy making a mistake. Got it? Whose side are you on, anyway.

    --
    When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
  13. IBM faced this problem in the 1980's by knorthern+knight · · Score: 2

    Showing my age. The original IBM PC was at first too weak to compete with IBM's higher-end offerings. But the AT with 6mhz chip was getting close. People started overclocking their cpus. IBM responded by tweaking the BIOS to not boot if the cpu was faster than 6 mhz (assholes).

    This affected a lot of people who ran into problems with the original 20 mb drive, and took their machine in to be serviced. IBM "upgraded" the BIOS when replacing the bad hard drives (assholes).

    The modders responded with a "turbo-switch". It was a a manual toggle. The cpu ran at 6 mhz when booting, to pass the boot-time checking. Then you could flip it to 10 mhz or whatever. IBM eventually came out with faster ATs, but the clone makers had eaten up a lot of the PC market by then.

    --

    I'm not repeating myself
    I'm an X window user; I'm an ex-Windows user