Using Kickstarter Data To Predict Ubuntu Edge's Success

First time accepted submitter Jason Waddell writes "According to Kickstarter's historic backing data, crowdfunding follows a very predictable pattern: a strong opening, a mid-campaign 'dead zone', and a small resurgence at the end of the campaign. We combine Kickstarter's trends with the Ubuntu Edge Indiegogo crowdfunding data to forecast whether the innovative Ubuntu phone will reach its $32 million campaign goal."

Comments

Re:Who the hell wants an Ubuntu phone?

[Anonymous Coward]

The same mint that is based on Ubuntu?

Re: Not many big projects to judge by

[AvitarX]

No it didn't, it had a very normal progression from what I can tell. I assume in this graph the green is the average daily amount predicting the total earned. http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/1461411552/elite-dangerous/#chart-exp-trend

Compare that to the graph in the article with the diagonal line, see how successful projects generally stay above the line (the diagonal one in the article, the flat one in my link). The edge is already well below it unfortunatly, and is quite early in funding. It shouldn't dip below until quite late in a campaign of at all, and it should never get anywhere near as low as it is now.