Is Europe's Recession Really Over?

jones_supa writes "Bloomberg, the WSJ and the NYT cheered to report that the Euro Zone's economy has showed signs of recovery after two years of decline. They're all based on the news that Eurostat, the keeper of economic statistics for the European Union, says GDP grew 0.3 percent within the EU's borders from the end of March through June. As Olli Rehn, Eurostat's vice president, writes on his blog: 'I hope there will be no premature, self-congratulatory statements suggesting "the crisis is over."' He calls the GDP report only another sign of 'a potential turning point in the EU economy.' The quick conclusion by some economists and some in the news media that a slight rise in one quarter's GDP means a recession is over ignores how experts figure out when an economy is either in a significant downturn (a recession) or enjoying steady growth (an expansion)."

Comments

Betteridge's law of headlines

[gwjgwj]

No.

Re:Betteridge's law of headlines

[ShanghaiBill]

No.

Actually, yes, in this case. People tend to think that "recession" has a fuzzy definition, and means bad economic times, or high numbers of jobless. It doesn't. Recession means two or more consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Period. A recession is not "over" when you get back to the previous levels of income and employment. It is over when you hit bottom and start to recover.

it's not really an integrated economy yet

[Trepidity]

The EU is getting more integrated, but is still nowhere near one economy that moves in unison. So the answer to the headline question is: yes in some places, no in others. Germany's GDP is growing; Spain's is shrinking.