DoD Declassifies Flu Pandemic Plan Containing Sobering Assumptions

An anonymous reader writes "The Department of Defense has just declassified a copy of its 2009 Concept of Operations Plan for an Influenza Pandemic. Among the Plan's scary yet reasonable assumptions are that in the United States, such a pandemic will kill 2 percent of the infected population, or about 2 million people. The plan also assumes that a vaccine won't be available for at least 4 to 6 months after confirmation of sustained human transmission, and that the weekly vaccine manufacturing capability will only produce 1 percent of the total US vaccine required. State and local governments will be overwhelmed, and civilian mortuary operations will require military augmentation. Measures such as limiting public gatherings, closing schools, social distancing, protective sequestration and masking will be required to limit transmission and reduce illness and death. International and interstate transportation will be restricted to contain the spread of the virus. If a pandemic starts outside the US, it will enter the country at multiple locations and spread quickly to other parts of the country. A related document, CONPLAN 3591-09, was released by DoD in 2010."

Comments

this research makes some untenable assumptions

[nimbius]

such a pandemic will kill 2 percent of the infected population, or about 2 million people.

thats a pretty generous statement considering 34 million americans go without health insurance. even if they dont seek medical attention, which isnt likely considering the media hype surrounding the condition, we're assuming a nation 36% obese and 74% overweight is nutritionally capable of weathering this. workplace policies that forbid or restrict sick days will also amplify transmisison vectors.

sequestering people into their homes for a protracted amount of time isnt going to work as we've intended. whereas 50 years ago the average american kitchen would be prepared to spend two weeks without leaving the house, the average american today is barely capable of anything more than zapping a burrito once weekly in lieu of going to a restaraunt. based on consumer spending data, during an emergency most americans simply stock up on poptarts and beer. http://www.hurricaneville.com/pop_tarts.html