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Another Climate-Change Retraction

jamie writes "It seems every time someone twists global-warming science into 'good news,' a retraction is soon to follow, and so it must be for Slashdot. Yesterday, the conservative Wall Street Journal published yet another apologetic claiming 'the overall effect of climate change will be positive,' by someone who (of course) is not a climate scientist. Today, Climate Progress debunks the piece, noting 'Ridley and the WSJ cite the University of Illinois paper to supposedly prove that warming this century will be under 2C — when the author has already explained to them that his research shows the exact opposite!' We went through this same process last year, with the same author and the same paper, so it's pretty embarrassing that he 'makes a nearly identical blunder' all over again."

41 of 479 comments (clear)

  1. Look over here, look over here! by s.petry · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Anything to keep you from looking at the root cause of the problem. Pollution, waste, dumping, strip farming/mining, and so on and so on are never discussed. Problems that we see like the great pacific garbage dump are ignored, as are ocean dead zones and polluted water.

    I don't believe 99% of what is paid to be published, because, well hell look who is paying for the media spin? The same people pushing more and more pollution in most cases.

    --

    -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

    1. Re:Look over here, look over here! by MightyMartian · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Have you got a solution that doesn't involve regulation?

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    2. Re:Look over here, look over here! by EEPROMS · · Score: 4, Insightful

      ah, so build a house that can float and learn to wear gas masks, gotcha.

    3. Re:Look over here, look over here! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      There are hundreds of millions of people on this planet who have no legitimate prospects for "adapting" in time to avert catastrophe. Your flippant (and ignorant) proposal, if implemented, would lead to hundreds of millions of deaths. Or, it will lead to hundreds of millions of angry, desperate, poor people who are are going to force you to "adapt" to their needs.

      Now, do you have something NOT ignorant to contribute to the conversation?

    4. Re:Look over here, look over here! by MightyMartian · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I see. So your solution is to simply ignore the ecological catastrophe, fuck future generations (and even some current populations) and live with the consequences of a perfectly avoidable disaster.

      In a way, you're even worse than the denialists. You have adopted an ideological position and have decided that maintaining it should trump any change in human behavior.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    5. Re:Look over here, look over here! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      I think the point is, if millions of high carbon Americans 'adapt' then catastrophe might be averted.

    6. Re:Look over here, look over here! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Simple calculations suggest it would cost 50 time more to mitigate any possible "global warming" than it would to simply adapt.
       
      I suspect that I'd be wasting my breath suggesting you might want to spend even 5 minutes of your life investigating an alternative view: http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/
       
      So yes, lets live with the (extremely unlikely) possiblility of "Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming" and just get on with our lives. Your approach is to doom future generations of the entire planet to poverty in order to fight against something that isn't even a problem.

    7. Re:Look over here, look over here! by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 5, Funny

      If one reckless nation's environmental impact causes changes that will lead to deaths of people in other nations, it's a state-level version of negligent homicide.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    8. Re:Look over here, look over here! by QRDeNameland · · Score: 5, Funny

      "Simple calculations suggest..."

      Beware when the simple start calculating. It never ends well.

      --
      Momentarily, the need for the construction of new light will no longer exist.
    9. Re:Look over here, look over here! by turbidostato · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "All of the woes that you mention such as pollution are caused by excessive population."

      That explains why India pollutes more than USA.

      Oh, wait!

      No, I was joking: It's progress not population.

      That explains why Denmark pollutes per capita as much as USA.

      Oh, wait!

    10. Re:Look over here, look over here! by gmuslera · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The root cause are not those. The root cause is that there is profit to be made, and that profit justifies things like replacing cleaner transportation alternatives with polluting ones.

      There is just no profit in building an economy over renovable energies. The pipe that make everything run must be controlled, specially if is done by a few (and if new players come in the government is always willing to help them). And if that non-renovable but tight controllable energy is polluting, too bad, but they will do anything in their hand to avoid that the dependence on them weakens.

    11. Re:Look over here, look over here! by mi · · Score: 3, Informative

      There's no moral difference between killing with pollution and killing with bombs

      While the anti-Americans world-wide are wagging their fingers at the US, China is killing itself with pollution...

      --
      In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
    12. Re:Look over here, look over here! by Uberbah · · Score: 4, Interesting

      All of the woes that you mention such as pollution are caused by excessive population.

      A comfort lie first-worlders tell to absolve themselves of responsibility for their resource consumption. It's not people living in Cuba dumping all that plastic waste into the ocean. The average American uses the same amount of resources as 32 Kenyans.

    13. Re:Look over here, look over here! by c0lo · · Score: 4, Interesting

      There's no moral difference between killing with pollution and killing with bombs

      While the anti-Americans world-wide are wagging their fingers at the US, China is killing itself with pollution...

      Just in the news: China And California Partnership To Address Climate Change.
      It doesn't look like is an "us and them" attitude (i.e. you better stop approaching the topic from a "who's-shitting-more contest" PoV).

      --
      Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
    14. Re:Look over here, look over here! by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "If we're going to get opinions, can't we at least get them from real scientists?"

      Partly because when people post things here from some of those real scientists, they are insulted, harassed, and stuck with the label "denialist".

      Just recently someone insulted me, called me a "known denialist", and referenced a comment of mine here on Slashdot (with a link to a peer-reviewed paper) from 5 years ago. Mind you, this was in reply to a comment of mine that was not even about AGW.

      Assholes like that don't bother me very overmuch, but I have no doubt that the tactic drives a lot of people away.

    15. Re:Look over here, look over here! by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 3, Informative

      "The people in Boulder Colorado are feeling global warming rather directly today."

      The people in Boulder are experiencing an example of extreme WEATHER, not climate.

      This has been a cool year. Record cold weather in much of the southern hemisphere and a cooler summer in the Arctic. Total global cyclonic (hurricane-type) activity is at a near-record low.

      Global trends are important. Individual incidents of WEATHER do not equate to "global warming" unless the average over the whole planet does, and for a period of years, not a week or so.

    16. Re:Look over here, look over here! by Sabriel · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Okay, I looked at the 50:1 PDF in your link. Say we assume for now it's right. What's the _long-term_ cost of not stopping it? The temperature isn't going to magically cease rising at midnight on 2100AD. The oceanic acidity isn't going to magically neutralise. The methane clathrate traps aren't going to magically un-thaw. We can't halt physics like we can halt a stock market. How much extra CO2 can we continue releasing into the atmosphere and ocean before it dooms future generations to extinction instead of poverty?

      Humanity can recover from poverty. Extinction, not so much. What's the date at which your ROI on not abating human pollution drops to a null value?

    17. Re:Look over here, look over here! by Nemyst · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And they're taking measures to deal with it. In some cities, cars are restricted by license plate randomly. They're setting up a LOT of nuclear powerplants. They're doing research in anything that might help them fend off their big pollution problems.

      The US, on the other hand, is a developed nation that has had decades to take care of its problems, and instead it's regressing. We need to tell the US to get their act together just as much as we need to for China.

    18. Re:Look over here, look over here! by Joce640k · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "makes a nearly identical blunder' all over again"

      It's not a "blunder" - he's figured out he can get paid for conferences and keep himself in the spotlight by doing this sort of thing.

      Bottom line: He's a fraud.

      Sad thing is, a lot of people are prepared to believe him and pay to listen to him. And the planet could be wrecked because of people like him.

      --
      No sig today...
    19. Re:Look over here, look over here! by serviscope_minor · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Partly because when people post things here from some of those real scientists, they are insulted, harassed, and stuck with the label "denialist".

      That's because well over 90% of the people who hold that viewpoint on slashdot are flat-out denialists.

      We get people:
      * Insisting there is some conspiracy or that scientists are in it for the money.
      * Bringing up the same tired, well covered talking points ("scientists are so stupid they've forgotten about solar output").
      * Attacking news and opinion articles and using this to "debunk" the actual science.
      * Latching on to the shrieking shrill enviro-nuts and using that to "debunk" the science.
      * Pretending that economic consequences of action say anything about the science,attacking proposed action and using that to "debunk" the science.
      * Cherry picking the actions of one or two scientists and using this to "debunk" all the other scientists.
      * Confusing scientists with everyone else arguing about it and using that to "debunk" the science.

      That makes the majority.

      You also get a few people:
      * Massively cherry picking the data.
      * Claiming that it's so complicated anyway that we can't know anything and therefore it is not warming or its not our fault or whatever.
      * Ignoring the climate models actual predictions.

      I invite you to find someone here who doesn't do all those things.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    20. Re:Look over here, look over here! by DarkOx · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I submit your argument is moronic. The average American does not want to live like an average Kenyan and I suspect the average Kenyan does not live like the average Kenyan by choice. ( I am aware parts of Kenya are quite affluent and modern, but we are talking average which means the desperately poor areas pull the mean condition down a great deal).

      In general the Environment is better served by affluence than poverty for a given population. Affluent people have resources to invest in things like waste water treatment, proper trash disposal, the replanting of forests, defense of nature preserves etc. Its politically fun to try and shame American's for polluting and energy consumption but it has mostly to do with how we generate electricity ( largely a function which natural resources happened to be abundant on our continent ) and all the driving we do ( largely a function of our nations physical size ). Measure something besides CO2 and we don't look to bad compared to anyone else.

      No I think the problem is very much one of population. The CO2 envelope is a solvable problem or isn't at all if the number of people is small enough.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
  2. "pretty embarassing"? more like "pretty revealing" by unclepedro · · Score: 4, Funny

    "Whoops! I meant to make the same argument with a *different* paper!"

  3. Re:Freeman Dyson by Bill,+Shooter+of+Bul · · Score: 5, Informative

    He also admits, he doesn't know what the heck he's talking about:

    "my objections to the global warming propaganda are not so much over the technical facts, about which I do not know much, but it’s rather against the way those people behave and the kind of intolerance to criticism that a lot of them have."

    http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2151

    He's not an expert on the current science. Taking his advice is like asking a guy who wrote COBOL in the 60's about something like open stack.

    --
    Well.. maybe. Or Maybe not. But Definitely not sort of.
  4. Science News Cycle by Beeftopia · · Score: 4, Funny
  5. "blunder" is far too kind a word for it by bzipitidoo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Black lie is what I call it. These scum knew what they were doing. They've been told, repeatedly, that they are wrong and why they are wrong, and they just dismiss and ignore everything and say those lies again anyway. They were printing propaganda. Throwing raw meat to the conservatives. That's all the WSJ's opinion section has been since Murdoch bought it.

    It's like the black knight skit in Quest for the Holy Grail. "It's only a flesh wound" and "The earth has had worse." Won't quit fighting even after his legs have been cut out from under him.

    --
    Intellectual Property is a monopolistic, selfish, and defective concept. It is "tyranny over the mind of man"
    1. Re:"blunder" is far too kind a word for it by cusco · · Score: 5, Funny

      That's pretty much all the WSJ opinion page has ever been, at least since the 1980s when I used to steal it. The newspaper itself could have a great in-depth and well-researched story saying X, and on the opinion page the bloody editors would declare Y. George Will used to be particularly bad at doing that. He could lay out all the facts that would show why one of Ronnie Raygun's programs were going to be yet another disastrous unending money pit of fail, and then declare that the program should be supported 111%. All Murdoch has managed to do is get rid of some of the good investigative reporters that it used to have and change the format to something that no one likes.

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    2. Re:"blunder" is far too kind a word for it by ColdWetDog · · Score: 3, Insightful

      YOU should read the article carefully. Superficially, it looks nice and all sciency. However, it is a tale told by an idiot. Full of sound and fury. Signifying nothing.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  6. Re:Freeman Dyson by MightyMartian · · Score: 4, Insightful

    He's a physicist, not a climatologist. He certainly would be better in some respects at assessing the models, but nowhere near as competent as, oh, I dunno, a climatologist. On the flipside, if a climatologist starts making grand declarations about quantum electroydnamics, I'm sure I'd be turning to Dyson for a rebuttal.

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  7. Forbes, WSJ others by WOOFYGOOFY · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Forbes WSJ FoxNews and of course all of wright wing talk/hate radio, and others , consistently misrepresent the facts of climate science, what climate scientists are saying and how climate modeling is done.

    Either they're, for reasons unknown, persistent and unlucky victims of poor reporting, poor analysis and mistaken inference or there is a persistent and deliberate determination on their parts to knowingly and with malice of forethought lie about climate science to the American , British Australian and European public.

    If it turns out it's the latter, we can ask some interesting questions., Since persuading people that climate change is not as the scientists represent it -a ticking time bomb we are running out of time to defuse and one whose consequences include the mass death of humans, is lying about climate science not the equivalent to shouting (no) fire in a crowded (and burning) theater?

    If it is, then are they not already criminals and are they not already responsible for those deaths? I think this is called "manslaughter" and when the number of people you caused to die numbers into the millions, I think that's elevated to "crimes against humanity".

    Of course the US will never go there, but what about other nations? Hasn't the US demonstrated that people who threaten Americans are subject to executive action irrespective of where they are or whether the host nation is inclined to turn them over?

    Could China or Japan or Germany or Russia or any other country just legally and unilaterally decide that say, David and Charles Koch represent too much of a threat to human civilization to permit them to go on living? Would they be within their legal right to quietly see to it that the perps are silently and quietly and discretely brought to final justice?

    And what about the money these organization make from their climate denialism? Isn't that money, even if it's been dispersed to their heirs and partners actually. ill-gotten gains and subject to something like international civil forfeiture? The money to cover the catastrophically high cost of attempting to turn back climate change at the last possible moment has to be extracted from someone.

    Obviously this is all beyond the pale for the current times, but time change and when they change, attitudes change, often suddenly and dramatically. What was just an amusing thought experiment one day becomes harsh reality another.

    Laws exist to make society livable. They are defined according and in reaction to the environment. If that environment changes dramatically, then we can expect that near future generations of people will look back see the times we are living in now quite differently than we do, just the way we look back on slavery as an abomination or the post WWII generation of Germans were completely appalled at what their parents had done.

    1. Re:Forbes, WSJ others by TapeCutter · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The same sort of lies were spread about smoking and cancer, the same (for hire) lobby groups were writing and distributing the anti-science propaganda. They dragged the tobacco CEO's into congress for a grilling. At the end of the day they were fined $500M, but still not enough to put them out of business and certainly no jail time for what was nothing short of fraud. The coal industry is an economic superpower compared to tobacco, they have been successfully fighting emission controls for over a century. They will not retire gracefully.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    2. Re:Forbes, WSJ others by drfred79 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The IPCC report that will be coming out by the U.N. is going to state that mass deaths were previously overcalculated. On the other hand, reducing our economic output to reduce carbon emissions will cause measurable levels of starvation and death due to cold weather and will affect the poor people the most. (Poor people pay a larger portion of their income for electricity than rich people. Incentivizing reduced electricity use and vis-a-vis carbon emissions through price controls hurts poor people.)

      So who should I decide is correct? The WSJ, the IPCC, & Fox News or you? You're not even arguing with the most current data by groups you support.

      Have you truly looked into contributions from oil companies or are you stating what you heave read. Did you know oil companies donate to groups like Greenpeace and the Sierra Club? Is it ok for them to donate significantly more to environmental groups than they do to Skeptical Anthropogenic Global Warming Research groups? Is that because you have decided, based on outdated and overstated data, that they are right?

      Continue your rounding up of the witches. Everything that ends well starts with persecution of the opposition.

    3. Re:Forbes, WSJ others by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      But here's the thing. A lot of the smoking and cancer studies WERE lies also. Particularly some of the studies on second hand (or third hand) smoke. I'm not arguing that smoking is good for you or anything, but if you dig a little you will find that the current crusade to ban smoking outdoors or pretty much anywhere because claims that even a little exposure is going to kill you are patently false.

      OBTW, if a pack of cigarettes cost $6, and $5 of that is tax, who exactly is in the tobacco business?

      And such I fear is the trend with AGW evangelists. They are right, at least to a degree, but the truth is just not quite scary enough to accomplish their agenda. So they Hollywood it up a bit.

    4. Re:Forbes, WSJ others by khallow · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If it turns out it's the latter, we can ask some interesting questions., Since persuading people that climate change is not as the scientists represent it -a ticking time bomb we are running out of time to defuse and one whose consequences include the mass death of humans, is lying about climate science not the equivalent to shouting (no) fire in a crowded (and burning) theater?

      The answer is an obvious "no". We are tired of loud-mouthed, would be thugs and bullies, such as yourself, trying to shape disagreement on the presence and severity of AGW as some some sort of "crime against humanity" - to use your own words.

      The "shouting fire" example is fundamentally broken because there is no fire. There is a potential problem, yes, but the urgency just isn't there.

      Could China or Japan or Germany or Russia or any other country just legally and unilaterally decide that say, David and Charles Koch represent too much of a threat to human civilization to permit them to go on living?

      Well, some of those countries aren't based on law. So what is legal changes from moment to moment. And the countries of law such as Japan and Germany could not arbitrarily kill unpopular people because that would be illegal.

      Laws exist to make society livable. They are defined according and in reaction to the environment. If that environment changes dramatically, then we can expect that near future generations of people will look back see the times we are living in now quite differently than we do, just the way we look back on slavery as an abomination or the post WWII generation of Germans were completely appalled at what their parents had done.

      Well then, let us all work to prevent your dystopia from becoming a reality. Your role could be real easy or real hard - I really don't know. All I ask of you is to try to become a better person and put aside this pointless hate.

  8. Lying by Tablizer · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The bottom line is that lying works when you are dealing with low-information people.

  9. Merchants of doubt by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    It is, in fact, many of the same people who helped obscure the underlying science in both cases. Nicely documented by historians Naomi Oreskes and Naomi Oresekes in Merchants of Doubt.

  10. When it happens twice it's not accidental by kawabago · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Twice means is purposeful.

  11. Don't like the solution so the problem can't exist by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Your right, we SHOULD be listening to the people pushing for more taxes for the government instead, because they OBVIOUSLY have your best interest in mind.

    Have you got a solution that doesn't involve regulation?

    What is being said here seems to be "I don't like the solutions that I think will be imposed, so therefore I will vehemently argue that the problem doesn't exist, or if it exists that it's not as bad as projected."

    The logical fallacy of that should be obviously: whether a particular solution is right or wrong has no logical bearing on whether the science-- that human-generated carbon dioxide contributes to temperature according to well-known models-- is correct.

    If you don't like the solution, perhaps you should work on figure out a proposal for a solution that is acceptable, rather than denying the science is right.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  12. Re:Don't like the solution so the problem can't ex by Dishevel · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Does not matter if I like or do not like the regulations. The real issue with them is that they have no chance of doing any good. So. Massive regulations, higher unemployment, higher costs, and less progress for nothing. Sounds like a real bad deal.

    And. "But, but, but Feel Better Inside." is not an argument I care to hear.

    --
    Why is it so hard to only have politicians for a few years, then have them go away?
  13. Re:Have you looked at the evidence? by _xen · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Have you actually read the IPCC working-group 1 report, The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change. I don't mean, a summary of it ... Have you actually read the report?

    I beg to differ. Even reading the Summary could be greatly beneficial for many of the victims of the disinformation campaign. The full WG1 report is a lot of reading. There's an overwhelming amount of science to get through and expecting non-specialists to tough it out is not entirely realistic. That, after all, is why the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) exists.

    And the advantage is that on any area of science where you want to get your hands dirty, you can navigate from the SPM, into the the appropriate place of the Full Report proper and via the citations to the original publications in the scientific literature.

    And on that point, don't waste your time right now reading the AR4 report. The AR5 report is due for release from the 27th of this month, starting with the SPM, from here.

    And the SPM makes it so easy for non-specialists to get a handle on the science, it's simply unforgivable for anyone who presumes to venture an opinion on this issue not to have digested it.

  14. Re:Apologetic doesn't mean what you think by TPIRman · · Score: 4, Informative

    The word was used properly. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal published an apologetic for climate-change denial—a defense of their previous statements. Today, Climate Progress debunked that apologetic.

    There has been no apology.

    Words are important.

  15. Re:Apologetic doesn't mean what you think by Anubis+IV · · Score: 4, Insightful

    One of these days I really hope they'll add a "I'm an idiot and want to indicate that I no longer stand by this comment" button here on Slashdot, since this is one of those moments for me. I stand corrected, and with good reason, since I was apparently just skimming the summary. Honestly and sincerely, thank you for calling me out on not reading it properly, since I definitely deserved to be called out on it. :)