Slashdot Mirror
Digital Revolution Will Kill Jobs, Inflame Social Unrest, Says Gartner
dcblogs writes "Gartner says new technologies are decreasing jobs. In the industrial revolution — and revolutions since — there was an invigoration of jobs. For instance, assembly lines for cars led to a vast infrastructure that could support mass production giving rise to everything from car dealers to road building and utility expansion into new suburban areas. But the "digital industrial revolution" is not following the same path. "What we're seeing is a decline in the overall number of people required to do a job," said Daryl Plummer, a Gartner analyst at the research firm's Symposium ITxpo. Plummer points to a company like Kodak, which once employed 130,000, versus Instagram's 13. The analyst believes social unrest movements, similar to Occupy Wall Street, will emerge again by 2014 as the job creation problem deepens." Isn't "decline in the overall number of people required to do a job" precisely what assembly lines effect, even if some job categories as a result require fewer humans? We recently posted a contrary analysis arguing that the Luddites are wrong.
Who also predicted (in 2011) that Windows Phones would capture 20% of the mobile market in 2015??? Yep. In fact, they are the same outfit that predicted (in 2010) that Symbian would have 30% in 2014. So, I make it a rule not to get worked up about their predictions...
You're correct; that verb was used correctly, although the verb "effect" usually isn't. "I'm going to affect this car by hitting it with a hammer, and I'm going to effect a dent." Hitting it is affecting it, the dent is the effect.
If you said "I'm going to effect this car by hitting it with a hammer" you would be saying the car was the effect of the hammer's blow, which would be absurd.
Free Martian Whores!
Why does anybody on slashdot care what Gartner says?
They are the National Enquirer of IT, mainly trying to sell useless advice to people who cannot think for themselves.
Newflash: Motor vehicles put buggy whip manufacturers out of business. And they also created a huge number of jobs in drilling for oil, refining gasoline, building roads and they even require mechanics.
Maybe we won't need store clerks any more but we will need somebody doing something new and unanticipated at this time. Gartner Group can never sell that to its customers (which is completely different from saying they don't understand the future). It's easier to sell fear than hope mostly because fearful people will buy anything that looks like a solution whereas hopeful people aren't in the market for solutions. (Be very clear about what sorts of folks Obama was selling his Hope message to in 2008).
IBM still makes mainframes. No matter how many tablets and smartphones are sold, Dell or Lenovo or somebody will still be able to make money selling laptops. Oh, and I can still buy both buggies and buggy whips at my local equestrian store, both of them made lovingly by hand.
I am genuinely curious, do you really believe this? That the worker bees are free to just go elsewhere to make more money?
Just look into US history for labor violation. Think company store.
It is simply a fact of life, many of those with power will take advantage of those without power. It is Human nature.
If you want to have a functioning, peaceful society, then yes, you really need to regulate things like labor laws.
Remember this. MOST people in the US live pay check to pay check. They CANNOT quit their job. If they lose even a week of pay, that is is the difference between eating or rent.
I am lucky. I don't really need to worry about these things, but it wasn't always the case. And back then, it was scary. Having lived it, I firmly believe we need regulate these things.
Of course, a big part of the problem is inflation. There is no real reason things need to get more and more expensive.