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The Pentagon May Retire "Yoda," Its 92-Year-Old Futurist

Posted by timothy on from the as-he-himself-foresaw dept.

Daniel_Stuckey writes "Of all the weapons the Pentagon relies on to defend the United States, one of the strangest and most secretive is Andrew Marshall, a 92-year-old man who's spent the last 40 years staring into the future trying to predict the next big threat to America. Known fondly as "Yoda" to his many fans in Washington, Marshall heads up the Office of Net Assessment—the Defense Department's think tank tasked with taking a long view, out-of-the-box approach to defense strategy. In his role as the Pentagon's visionary sage, Marshall is credited with predicting the fall of the Soviet Union, the rise of China's global prominence, the role of autonomous weapons and robots in warfare, and even helping end the Cold War. Now, facing budget cuts, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel is considering reorganizing or possibly even shuttering the futurist think tank, Defense News recently reported."

3 of 254 comments (clear)

  1. Well... by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 4, Interesting

    He's been trying to predict the future for the last 40 years. Unless everything he writes gets stamped 'above top secret: incinerator's eyes only' surely we have enough material to evaluate his efficacy by now?

    How did it go?

    1. Re:Well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      He came up with the concept of Air-Sea Battle, which is a new method to coordinate the Air Force and the Navy in a future maritime war.

      Likely with China, as he predicted their rise to challenge US dominance back in the 80's when they were still weak.

      He predicted in the 70's that the Soviet Union's economy was in terrible shape despite them seeming robust and strong at the time.

      He predicted the need for precision weapons in the 60's, back when carpet bombing in Vietnam was still the norm.

      In 2003 during an interview he discussed the use of predator drones moving from surveillance to a strike platform, which really began in earnest in 2009-10.

      Not a bad track record.

  2. Re:Interesting by Ransak · · Score: 4, Interesting

    In all fairness, he was busy being one of the men who stared at goats. That book/movie was closer to fact than fiction in many, many areas.

    --
    "Powers. I have them."