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Puzzled Scientists Say Strange Things Are Happening On the Sun
Hugh Pickens DOT Com writes "Robert Lee Hotz reports in the WSJ that current solar activity is stranger than it has been in a century or more. The sun is producing barely half the number of sunspots as expected, and its magnetic poles are oddly out of sync. Based on historical records, astronomers say the sun this fall ought to be nearing the explosive climax of its approximate 11-year cycle of activity—the so-called solar maximum. But this peak is 'a total punk,' says Jonathan Cirtain. 'I would say it is the weakest in 200 years,' adds David Hathaway, head of the solar physics group at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. Researchers are puzzled. They can't tell if the lull is temporary or the onset of a decades-long decline, which might ease global warming a bit by altering the sun's brightness or the wavelengths of its light. To complicate the riddle, the sun also is undergoing one of its oddest magnetic reversals on record, with the sun's magnetic poles out of sync for the past year so the sun technically has two South Poles. Several solar scientists speculate that the sun may be returning to a more relaxed state after an era of unusually high activity that started in the 1940s (PDF). 'More than half of solar physicists would say we are returning to a norm,' says Mark Miesch. 'We might be in for a longer state of suppressed activity.' If so, the decline in magnetic activity could ease global warming, the scientists say. But such a subtle change in the sun—lowering its luminosity by about 0.1%—wouldn't be enough to outweigh the build-up of greenhouse gases and soot that most researchers consider the main cause of rising world temperatures over the past century or so. 'Given our current understanding of how the sun varies and how climate responds, were the sun to enter a new Maunder Minimum, it would not mean a new Little Ice Age,' says Judith Lean. 'It would simply slow down the current warming by a modest amount.'"
Just sayin.. you're warned..
Climate change is messing up our sun!
Grab your tinfoil hats!
...
OMG! More proof of climate change! Quick, give more money to climate 'scientists'!
I bet all you climate-change-deniers are feeling foolish now.
First one to figure out how to blame this on capitalism/corporate greed gets a Nobel prize.
Scientists don't know everything about everything, but they want to know. That's how science works: it's a process.
...hey, if it buys us a hundred years to figure this pollution shit out, I ain't gonna look a gift horse in the mouth.
Are you?
I would say that if you have no idea of what happens on the sun (and scrapping the models for the last centuries of activity means having no idea), you have no idea of its impact on climate, but that is just me...
Its Humans fault for.... harvesting solar energy!... you have been warned!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auspice
Sun’s Hemispheres Out Of Sync During Magnetic Field
Written by: Tara Dodrill Trending August 8, 2013 3 Comments
Next you'll tell me that Some Thing is Wrong on Saturn 3.
so more like an extra year or two, at best, and probably more like a few months.
it's later than you think, and possibly too late already, only we hope not.
Please come back my crappy antenna needs all the help it can get.
'Given our current understanding of how the sun varies and how climate responds, were the sun to enter a new Maunder Minimum, it would not mean a new Little Ice Age,' says Judith Lean. 'It would simply slow down the current warming by a modest amount.'
That's a glass half empty point of view. If we hadn't added a protective layer of CO2 to our atmosphere we could be in an ice age right now.
In other news, archaeologists discover we were one year off in our estimates of the end of the next Long Count cycle on the Mayan Calendar.
Glad to hear it. I prefer a warmer planet.
Because an ice age can occur between the observations made and this story being reported.
Look, I know the sun hasnt been meeting its performance goals as of late, but its just going through some stuff, OK? The sun is working on getting its shit together and will be back better than ever, but you just gotta cool off man.
OMFG, who cares. Jesus.
The sun is shutdown modus forced by the GOP who can't stand the free light and warmth for everyone. That's dirty socialism.
Austerity plans will now set in and the sun will be forced to shrink. Ted Cruz demanded that only a minimal or no sun is a good sun.
And you know what will then come : the red danger. The commie sun will rise its ugly head and expand. Planet after planet will fall prey and ruled by an ion fist.
And the new hot war will destroy the earth with its nuclear fissions.
America, awake! Fight the good fight and stop the GOP. The root and cause of all evil. Save earth, kill the GOP.
.... ...but it's aliens.
The end of the world! Run! Run to me! I can save you! Run to me and be sure to bring your checkbook because absolution from all the sins of the world doesn't come cheap!!
The Shivan armada of Sathanas-class ships has started attacking the Sun!
why are you modded up? people are morons...
After witnessing the Aurora, I say this is sad news. Quiet sun means fewer displays like this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEHRoyvh_Ec
And maybe no more of those wild sun moments when satellite engineers go berserk in fear.
My Aurora : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o91ZsGwJYyg
FB : https://www.facebook.com/TanveersPhotography
why are you modded up? people are morons...
I was modded up by those that aren't.
I wonder what the electric universe (and electric sun) theorists will have to say about this.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if they predicted this type of activity years ago. That's what happened with comets after all, and the mainstream was surprised over and over again as we got better and better pictures of rocky comets and performed experiments that matched the EU predictions and not the "dirty ball of ice" theory. See:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34wtt2EUToo
Did I do that?
Only Doctor Hans Zarkhov, formerly at NASA, has provided any explanation.
Obviously, God has turned down the thermostat to compensate for mankinds foolish release of CO2.
I'm guessing the solution will involve Bruce Willis and a spaceship full of nukes flying to the sun to save us all
Korma: Good
for causes and effects of global warming. It's a nearly
stable factor.
Do something about the shit under your nose.
that RF is funny stuff!
seriously though, ham radio is a tough hobby when you have to wait 11 years for each peak in a cycle... this one definitely sucks though...
We've been observing a 4.57 billion year old object for a few hundred years, perhaps what we've observed is abnormal for our star in the long run.
It's all the fault of Edward Snowden !
Edward Snowden would be a good name for some evil antagonist who creates heavy global cooling.
Your comment makes me think you'd be happier listening to people who make up stories to explain away the unknown... good luck with that.
Yes. I believe the time tested manner of calming down the sun is via human sacrifice. Quick, build more pyramids!
Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
Well one look at the sheep's bladder today, and I knew I was having mutton for dinner.
Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
Wouldn't postmodernist scientists operate under the assumption that their model was an incomplete description, largely driven by their cultural and social norms as opposed to an underlying reality?
No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
why are you modded up? people are morons...
Actually he/she is right. Maybe the predictions made by previous research or models should be revised (as science usually does) instead of gasping at the phenomenon. Although I believe the part with "puzzled scientists" is just a sensationalist interpretation of some clueless journalist. :)
I note that global climate seems to be going through a startlingly fast, almost uniquely fast change. (Well, ok, there are similar almost-vertical pulses of warming about every 120-140kY.)
The sun seems to be going through a startling, unobserved mixture of activity.
Generally, when one startling random happenstance occurs in close proximity to another, it's not unreasonable to wonder if they're connected.
One might point out that our understanding of solar cycles comes from direct observation of approximately only 250-some years.
Observation of a system can only observe periodicity of 0.5N, and suggest confirmation 0.33N; that is you only get a HINT that something is periodic after you see it twice, and really only a strong suggestion of periodicity after the third observation. Turning that around, then, the longest periodic cycles within our 4.5-billion-old Sun that we could have directly observed is not much more than 80 years. (Granted, one can make some inferred solar observations on a longer scale based on tree ring data, etc.)
That's an amazingly short time, given the scale of our sun's span. We don't really know all that much about it.
-Styopa
It's just the photino birds.
... that global temperature is tightly coupled to solar luminosity.
Let's say that solar flux does change by 0.1%, which would mean it falls by 3.839 x 10^23 W = F
The mean distance from the Sun to the Earth, 1 AU, is 149 597 871 = R.
That means that the change in total incident radiation on Earth from the Sun is F / (4*pi*R^2) = 1.365 megawatts per square kilometer.
The radius of the Earth is 6371 km, making the Sun-facing normalized area = pi*6371^2 = 1.275 x 10^8 km^2
That makes the total energy loss incident upon the earth 1.741 * 10^14 watts. Earth's albedo is about 0.3, so that leaves 1.218 x 10^14 fewer watts contributing to planetary heating, or 1.053 x 10^19 kwh/day. (the incidence angle of solar energy is baked into the albedo number, so it would be incorrect to integrate the angle of incidence in the first step)
If you don't believe that the gain or loss of 1.053 x 10^19 kwh/day (10.5 million petawatt hours - 73,600 years worth of global energy production) of heating energy will have a significant effect on global temperatures, with all due respect, you're a blithering idiot. Yet, global warming alarmists insist that solar forcing has little or nothing to do with the global warming equation.
The other day you said is was gonna be windy...well it wasn't. Now you're trying to tell me the sun is blah blah blah. Baby steps please....
... that if anyone presents you a model of anything, it is likely wrong to a degree they can only guess at.
Economic, social, biological, climate (to mention just a few) are to be taken with a huge grain of salt. It is nice people study these things and increase our knowledge. That sort of pursuit is to be encouraged and applauded. But the minute anyone says they have it all understood ... stop listening. They don't.
Think: when was the last time you heard about a model and were told its accuracy _and_ assumptions (and the accuracy of those). And, importantly, what were you told about the robustness of the model ie. how sensitive it was to changes in variables (black swans, incorrect assumptions, etc)? That's right. Never.
"Consensus" in science is _always_ a political construct.
It's always G. W. Bush's fault even though Clinton/Gore ignored the problem before him.
Sun has been burning for more than 4 billion years, what makes you think that in 200 years worth of records you would notice something unusual in sun's activity and determine that we should pay attention to it?
If it were the Sun, then the entire atmosphere, top to bottom, would have warmed. Except the stratosphere cooled and the surface warmed, just like an extra blanket on your body makes your skin warmer and the outside of the blanket cooler.
If it were the Sun, the equator would warm more than the poles, recieving, as they do, more sunlight. Except it's the other way around, as if the escape of heat is being retarded from the earth, rather than more heat pumping in.
"It's the sun!" has been ruled out 100% finally.
"...or it could be fixing to go nova early, and kill us all."
In the meantime, here's a cute video we found of a cat playing piano...
Out of 70 papers, 7 said it'd be cooling, the rest unsure or warming.
1:9 then for global cooling.
1:32 now for global cooling.
Both minority ideas.
That the consensus had decoupled everything that would have connected the Sun's activity level to the state of our climate. That means it doesn't matter what happens on the Sun and the state of our climate is entirely in our own hands.
What the hell. I'll go with intelligent design and suppose that the whole thing is getting rigged to blow so that the slate can be wiped clean and the intelligent designer can start again. Maybe he'/she/they will get it right next time and actually create the intelligent life they were looking for to keep them company.
You forgot the include the link of the cat playing the piano.
who were 'dumbfounded' just recently?
And now they're 'puzzled' by 'strange things'!
... all of this is based on our billions of years of precise records. Oh, wait ...
Why, if CO2 is plant food, do farmers put fertiliser on their crops?
If plants were starving for CO2 "food", why is it that the plants aren't scoffing the lot?
Just as soon as the sun is able to sign up for ObamaCare.
Send people to Mars. While the level of solar activity is low and the risk of CMEs is less.
Have gnu, will travel.
For a start, clouds will form already: they need condensation nuclei and there's plenty of that in our atmosphere. Therefore any extra CCNs from ionising radiation will be miniscule.
Secondly, the clouds haven't changed enough to explain the magnitude of the change.
Thirdly, the change in cloud cover has slightly been a feedback because of the increased tropospheric water vapour, and it's low cloud that causes a warming trend: high clouds (where there is more effect from cosmic rays on cloud formation, what with the surface with its dust, salt crystals and all that other CCN products being so far away) cause a cooling trend.
So, mechanism can't do it, observation shows it isn't doing it and cloud cover is increasing that 1.2C per doubling of CO2 by itself, refuting the "luke warmers" contentions.
Winter is coming.
Proverbs 21:19
"Judith Lean, a climate and solar scientist at the Naval Research Laboratory, said if we’re headed towards a Maunder Minimum-type event, its arrival is hardly imminent."
She knows that how? Oh, yeah, we find out in the next paragraph: "...if solar activity is indeed in decline it will, I suppose, take a few centuries to reach a Maunder Minimum type event.”
This scientist confidently expresses her supposition in the Washingto Post to support the 'consensus' that there will be no mini ice age. If these people wanted to have even a smidgeon of credibility regarding climate prediction (itself a questionable proposition), they would be running their computer climate models with a decreasing solar output and reporting the results for different scenarios rather than stating their suppositions about the future of the sun's output (for which they obviously, like the rest of us, have no idea what will happen.) The truth is that IF solar output is indeed declining, the earth's climate is going to dramatically cool...and there is nothing that we can do about it other than prepare. That has happened in the past and it will happen in the future and it may be happening now. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 will have a negligible effect on such a cooling trend...and that's what the global cooling deniers don't want to say.
since the end of the ice age. I don't see where another couple of centimeters is going to cause TEOTWAWKI. The tides vary more than that based on the Moon's Apogee and Perigee.
The AGW fundamentalists are as attached to global warming as the Creationists are to their 'unique' views. Both of them have the same scientific basis in fact and the same wild eyed commitment to "THE TRUTH"!
Where are my fellow ham radio nerds chiming in on this subject? This peak of the solar cycle definatly was not the best for DX as I heard from elmers of the past.... 73s, KB9JZK
it's just NORMAL
Great. Now when my house is buried in snow I'll have been Snowd-en.
Somebody turned the thermostat down, probably to teach us a lesson.
BusHitler did it all. Causing this global cooling to make Al Gore look even more of a fool than he already is.
Quick, cheap, pyramid. Pick two.
What "the consensus" has said is that the observed variations of the Sun's activity are not enough to account fully for the climate changes observed and that at best it is only a second order effect. They do recognize that if the Sun were to have say a 10% change in activity that it would have a major effect.
It's is the deniers that use the same tactics as creationists, any suggestion otherwise is ludicrous.
"Well", I suppose you are saying to yourself, "Doesn't everything?"
Thing is, the warmageddonists have posited soot output from China as being responsible for the lag in global warming. Soot, you see, blocks sunlight, and irradiates its energy back into space.
Yeah.....soot. THAT's it! Soot!
It's a lot like the gigantic Thermos Bottle that supposedly traps excess heat in the deep ocean, which explains both why the ocean temps haven't risen, along with the atmospheric temps.
Science! They blinded me with Science!!!
Actually, the norm in science is, and always was, to challenge everything. Post-modernist scientists are those that use science as a new type of religion (in itself a reaction to the "established" religions), and become puzzled when their new god fail to respond as they expected.
Care to elaborate? No, really, you did miss my point and jumped to conclusions.
I don't see where another couple of centimeters is going to cause TEOTWAWKI. The tides vary more than that based on the Moon's Apogee and Perigee.
Great, then we can stop worrying about flooding at low tide! Which is what everyone is so worried about, right?
Thanks, Obama.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/05/26/1979-before-the-hockey-team-destroyed-climate-science/
1-4 degree decline is coming. Global warming was a scam from the start.
Winter is Coming...
To be, or not to be: isn't that quite logical, Slashdot Beta?