Slashdot Mirror
Warning At SC13 That Supercomputing Will Plateau Without a Disruptive Technology
dcblogs writes "At this year's supercomputing conference, SC13, there is worry that supercomputing faces a performance plateau unless a disruptive processing tech emerges. 'We have reached the end of the technological era' of CMOS, said William Gropp, chairman of the SC13 conference and a computer science professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Gropp likened the supercomputer development terrain today to the advent of CMOS, the foundation of today's standard semiconductor technology. The arrival of CMOS was disruptive, but it fostered an expansive age of computing. The problem is 'we don't have a technology that is ready to be adopted as a replacement for CMOS,' said Gropp. 'We don't have anything at the level of maturity that allows you to bet your company on.' Peter Beckman, a top computer scientist at the Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory, and head of an international exascale software effort, said large supercomputer system prices have topped off at about $100 million 'so performance gains are not going to come from getting more expensive machines, because these are already incredibly expensive and powerful. So unless the technology really has some breakthroughs, we are imagining a slowing down.'"
Although carbon nanotube based processors are showing promise (Stanford project page; the group is at SC13 giving a talk about their MIPS CNT processor).
We've had Silicon Germanium cpus that can scale to 1000+ GHz for years. Graphene is also another interesting possibility.
The question is that "At what price can you make the power affordable?"
For 99% of people, computers are good enough. For the other 1% they never will be.
Of course these people are using talking about supercomputers and the relevance to supercomputers, but you have to be pretty daft to not see the implications for everything else. In the last years almost all the improvement have been in power states and frequency/voltage scaling, if you're doing something at 100% CPU load (and isn't a corner case to benefit from a new instruction) the power efficiency has been almost unchanged. Top of the line graphics cards have gone constantly upwards and are pushing 250-300W, even Intel's got Xeons pushing 150W not to mention AMD's 220W beast, though that's a special oddity. The point is that we need more power to do more and for hardware running 24x7 that's a non-trivial part of the cost that's not going down.
We know CMOS scaling is coming to an end, maybe not at 14nm or 10nm but at the end of this decade we're approaching the size of silicon atoms and lattices. There's no way we can sustain the current rate of scaling in the 2020s. And it wouldn't be the end of the world, computers would go roughly the same speed they did ten or twenty years ago like cars and jet planes do. Your phone would never become as fast as your computer which would never become as fast as a supercomputer again. We could get smarter at using that power of course, but fundamentally hard problems that require a lot of processing power would go nowhere and it won't be terahertz processors, terabytes of RAM and petabytes of storage for the average man. It was a good run while it lasted.
Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
my intuition tells me that disruptive technologies are precisely that because people don't anticipate them coming along nor do they anticipate the changes that will follow their introduction. not that people can't see disruptive tech ramping up, but often they don't.
Arguably, there are at least two senses of 'disruptive' at play when people talk about 'disruptive technology'.
There's the business sense, where a technology is 'disruptive' because it turns a (usually pre-existing, even considered banal or cheap and inferior) technology into a viable, then superior, competitor to a nicer but far more expensive product put out by the fat, lazy, incumbent. This comment, and probably yours, was typed on one of those(or, really, a collection of those.)
Then there's the engineering/applied science sense, where it is quite clear to everybody that "If we could only fabricate silicon photonics/achieve stable entanglement of N QBits/grow a single-walled carbon nanotube as long as we want/synthesize a non-precious-metal substitute for platinum catalysts/whatever, we could change the world!"; but nobody knows how to do that yet.
Unlike the business case (where the implications of 'surprisingly adequate computers get unbelievably fucking crazy cheap' were largely unexplored, and before that happened people would have looked at you like you were nuts if you told them that, in the year 2013, we have no space colonies, people still live in mud huts and fight bush wars with slightly-post-WWII small arms; but people who have inadequate food and no electricity have cell phones), the technology case is generally fairly well planned out (practically every vendor in the silicon compute or interconnect space has a plan for, say, what the silicon-photonics-interconnect architecture of the future would look like; but no silicon photonics interconnects, and we have no quantum computers of useful size; but computer scientists have already studied the algorithms that we might run on them, if we had them); but application awaits some breakthrough in the lab that hasn't come yet.
(Optical fiber is probably a decent example of a tech/engineering 'disruptive technology' that has already happened. Microwave waveguides, because those can be tacked together with sheet metal and a bit of effort, were old news, and the logic and desireability of applying the same approach to smaller wavelengths was clear; but until somebody hit on a way to make cheap, high-purity, glass fiber, that was irrelevant. Once they did, the microwave-based infrastructure fell apart pretty quickly; but until they did, no amount of knowing that 'if we had optical fiber, we could shove 1000 links into that one damn waveguide!' made much difference.)