Slashdot Mirror


NHTSA Tells Tesla To Stop Exaggerating Model S Safety Rating

cartechboy writes "There's always that kid in the class that ruins it for everyone when being graded on a curve. At the moment, that kid is Tesla and Elon Musk. Tesla's been proudly claiming the Model S is one of the safest cars in the word despite the recent fire controversy. And while it may be just that, claiming it earned 5.4 stars from NHTSA isn't pleasing the safety agency as there is no such thing as a rating higher than five. While NHTSA already released a statement indirectly to Tesla saying it doesn't release ratings higher than 5, Tesla continued to promote this fictitious rating. Now NHTSA has updated its guidelines explicitly stating safety ratings are whole numbers only and that 5 stars is the maximum advertisers can claim. If advertisers and automakers decide to disregard these rules NHTSA is threatening removal from the program or referral to state authorities for appropriate action. Basically, hey Tesla, stop making false claims."

65 of 284 comments (clear)

  1. He'll love that by Joce640k · · Score: 4, Funny

    My car's rating is higher than the maximum rating allowed by the NHTSA.

    --
    No sig today...
    1. Re:He'll love that by omnichad · · Score: 4, Funny

      Mine goes to 11.

    2. Re:He'll love that by LordLimecat · · Score: 5, Informative

      From Tesla's website, the actual claim:

      NHTSA does not publish a star rating above 5, however safety levels better than 5 stars are captured in the overall Vehicle Safety Score (VSS) provided to manufacturers, where the Model S achieved a new combined record of 5.4 stars

      --Source

      I can understand the NHTSA complaint (Tesla's claims could be misleading out of context), but its not like Tesla is making any false claims.

      Also, I recall this claim / story being about 3 months old at this point, and I believe NHTSA complained around the same time. Is slashdot seriously that far behind, or (as I suspect) is this an attempt to generate additional controversy and angst due to the other Tesla stories in the news?

    3. Re:He'll love that by EvanED · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Also, I recall this claim / story being about 3 months old at this point, and I believe NHTSA complained around the same time. Is slashdot seriously that far behind, or (as I suspect) is this an attempt to generate additional controversy and angst due to the other Tesla stories in the news?

      Neither. (Well, it could be the latter.)

      Rather, it is new action by NHTSA. "Complaining" is a lot different from saying "we will stop accrediting your cars". The former is old news. The latter is, well, news. (The "guidelines" were released yesterday.)

    4. Re:He'll love that by FatdogHaiku · · Score: 2

      Mine goes to 11.

      but is scaled in binary...
      apologies to Spinal Tap...

      --
      You have the right to remain sentient. If you give up the right to remain sentient, you will be elected to public office
    5. Re:He'll love that by jrumney · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It reminds me of when the laboratories that rated sunscreens could only rate them up to SPF 15, and pretty much every sunblock on the market was exceeding that. At some point, at least in New Zealand and Australia, the government stepped in and said they couldn't advertise higher than 15, so they all became SPF15+ for a while.

  2. I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be... by Midnight_Falcon · · Score: 5, Funny

    Stay tuned for Elon Musk's critique of the NHTSA and long blog post detailing why the NHTSA is a bunch of corrupt scumbags and how Tesla is so awesome that it is able to get ratings above a perfect score.

  3. tesla_s_rating = (float) nhtsa_rating; by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    I guess casting the nhtsarating is not allowed.

    1. Re:tesla_s_rating = (float) nhtsa_rating; by brainboyz · · Score: 3, Informative

      Would still only result in whole numbers, assuming nhtsa_rating is some form of uint.

  4. Misleading by gabeman-o · · Score: 5, Informative

    It got a 5.4 rating, but the NHTSA guidelines only allow them to advertise a whole number.

    1. Re:Misleading by sahuxley · · Score: 2, Funny

      No, you're still misunderstanding. Musk is saying they got five separate ratings of 0.4 stars.

    2. Re:Misleading by harvestsun · · Score: 5, Informative
      I don't know why this was modded as funny, it's right out of the article:

      NHTSA does not publish a star rating above 5, however safety levels better than 5 stars are captured in the overall Vehicle Safety Score (VSS) provided to manufacturers, where the Model S achieved a new combined record of 5.4 stars.

    3. Re:Misleading by CastrTroy · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Which cars don't have a 5 star crash rating? What's the lowest rating for being allowed on the road? Seems like the ratings are kind of useless if every car is rated with a 5. Just from clicking around on their site, I randomly selected 5-6 cars, and all of them had a 5-star overall crash rating.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    4. Re:Misleading by Tailhook · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yet that's the actual, accurate score. I don't see why the actual score can't be reported?

      There is no analytical basis to explain exactly how 5.1 is less safe than 5.4 and the analysis makes no such claim. If the NHTSA allowed manufacturers to abuse the figures by claiming these fractions are meaningful then the rating system would lose credibility. Ultimately manufacturers might game the system to amplify a meaningless fraction.

      Tesla had this explained to them and Tesla ignored it. Now the NHTSA has had to get official on their asses and tell them to stop. This is Tesla's own fault, whether the fanbois like it or not.

      --
      Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
    5. Re:Misleading by SecurityTheatre · · Score: 4, Informative

      Cars today are much better than they were in 1990 when they developed this system.

      3-star ratings weren't uncommon back then.

      http://www.safercar.gov/Vehicle+Shoppers/5-Star+Safety+Ratings/1990-2010+Vehicles/Vehicle-Detail?vehicleId=3098

      There are still some cars that get 4-stars, but this particular model (RAV4) got several 4-star ratings, prompting newspaper articles about "failing" safety tests. People clearly expect perfect security and safety all the time at all costs. (See: Patriot Act)

      http://www.safercar.gov/Vehicle+Shoppers/5-Star+Safety+Ratings/2011-Newer+Vehicles/Vehicle-Detail?vehicleId=8143

    6. Re:Misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      Not... Sure .. if I should take the advice from a 93 Escort wagon when it comes to car safety.

    7. Re:Misleading by mysidia · · Score: 4, Interesting

      There is no analytical basis to explain exactly how 5.1 is less safe than 5.4 and the analysis makes no such claim. If the NHTSA allowed manufacturers to abuse the figures by claiming these fractions are meaningful then the rating system would lose credibility.

      If that's true, then there's also no analytical basis to explain how exactly 4.4 (Which you rounded down to 4) is less safe than 4.6 (Which you rounded up to 5).

      The fact of the matter is, if such is your degree of error, then You have to make distinctions for which there is no analytical basis;At some point, if you are truncating the number: you have to choose which whole number you will truncate it too, AND another figure that is only 0.1 different, will appear as a whole POINT less safe or more safe than the other --- while other numbers that differ by 0.4 or more, will be truncated to the same value.

      Listing the more detailed figure is not per-se an abuse, then.

      There is false precision there; and there is also false precision truncating the number+fractional part to one of the surrounding whole numbers.

      Conveying the decimal point conveys false precision, BUT at the advantage of eliminating bias and haphazard truncation.

      You can actually see that one car got 4.4, and another got 4.6; instead of seeing "4 and 5"; Off by a whole star ------ there is something to hand you a relative showing, that they're really rather close, maybe the same.

    8. Re:Misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There is false precision there; and there is also false precision truncating the number+fractional part to one of the surrounding whole numbers.

      Conveying the decimal point conveys false precision, BUT at the advantage of eliminating bias and haphazard truncation.

      You can actually see that one car got 4.4, and another got 4.6; instead of seeing "4 and 5"; Off by a whole star ------ there is something to hand you a relative showing, that they're really rather close, maybe the same.

      The problem isn't false precision. It's not even false accuracy (which is what I think you meant). It is the conceptual basis on which the safety scores are based. The NHTSA specifies certain criteria and example accident scenarios and then computes a score. This score only strictly speaking applies to the particular accident types covered by the testing. Clearly the testing is going to be reasonably representative, but it will not be possible to design a test suite that is fully representative of all possible scenarios encountered in the real world.

      The NHTSA doesn't want manufacturers to optimise for the particular suite of sample accident scenarios to gain an extra 0.1 score and beat their rivals, because that would not mean that the real-world safety was improved and might even mean that safety declined slightly in non-tested accident scenarios. By rounding the scores it eliminates the motivation for this pointless effort, for all but a few borderline cars, and encourages manufacturers to focus only on possible major safety features that have a meaningful impact.

      Tesla are also facing criticism for doing a similar thing in accounting - designing their own 'non-GAAP' measures of financial performance and highlighting them, with the 'GAAP' measures less prominent. Again, it's not that their 'non-GAAP' measures are not accurately computed or based on false data, its that they measure things that aren't necessarily meaningful to investors.

    9. Re:Misleading by FatLittleMonkey · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The NHTSA doesn't want manufacturers to optimise for the particular suite of sample accident scenarios to gain an extra 0.1 score and beat their rivals, because that would not mean that the real-world safety was improved and might even mean that safety declined slightly in non-tested accident scenarios. By rounding the scores it eliminates the motivation for this pointless effort,

      If that were true, they wouldn't give the precise VSS scores to the manufacturers, just a "where you failed" review for individual tests. In the scenario Mysidia described (4.4 versus 4.6), there's every reason for a manufacturer to want to sneak above that .5 mark, in order to get a "NHTSA 5-Star Rating! * * * * *". If you were a manufacturer, wouldn't you give up a few percent of real-world safety for that extra star (by sneaking from 4.4 to 4.6)? Say by enlarging the rear pillars to cheaply improve your inverted-drop roof-crush score (your area of lowest performance) in spite of loss of visibility it causes (and thus increased real-world accidents), rather than actually improving roof-crush performance through proper structural changes. Or sacrificing your top score in roll-over stability by adding or removing elements to improve your very low-scoring rear collision survival test. Whereas if you weren't given a VSS score for each test, you would only know that the review says your rear-collision survivability sucks, and you'd have to work to improve it without reducing safety in other areas (because you wouldn't know where you exceeded the tests and thus have margin to sacrifice.) The current system clearly encourages manufacturers to "build to the test" at the expense of real-world safety.

      --
      Science is all about firing a drunk pig out of a cannon just to see what happens.
  5. neener neener neener by spirit_fingers · · Score: 5, Funny

    Liar liar car on fire!

    1. Re:neener neener neener by CanHasDIY · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Liar liar car on fire!

      Paid shill?

      Person with a sense of humor. You should go find one yourself.

      --
      An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
    2. Re:neener neener neener by Tablizer · · Score: 2

      That's fine as long as it doesn't spread to my pants.

    3. Re:neener neener neener by SeaFox · · Score: 2

      That's fine as long as it doesn't spread to my pants.

      I agree, I can't afford to buy another pair of pants.
      Another Tesla, however...

  6. (preparing to duck my head) by Tablizer · · Score: 5, Funny

    If you like your Tesla safety rating, you can keep your Tesla safety rating.

    1. Re:(preparing to duck my head) by Tablizer · · Score: 2

      Tesla's are people, my friend.

    2. Re:(preparing to duck my head) by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 3, Funny

      I voted for the Tesla safety rating before I voted against it.

      Was that so you could see what was in it?

  7. Try this excuse by Tablizer · · Score: 2

    "Since we are marketing to nerds, we are using a base 12 numbering system".

    1. Re:Try this excuse by Wintermute__ · · Score: 2

      Quick. Guess what 5 decimal is when converted to base 12.

  8. Bad title by PureRain · · Score: 5, Informative

    Just to clarify, the NHTSA hasn't said anything to Tesla like the summary states. It has clarified its rating system. That is all.

    That article is written like a high schooler's blog.

  9. Three month old dupe by kaleth · · Score: 4, Informative
  10. Genius and insanity go hand in hand by Dega704 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Elon Musk would never have accomplished what he has if it wasn't for his rabid passion and forceful, egotistical personality. He is trying to change the status quo in an industry where many have tried and failed, and where many want Tesla to fail as well. He had best try to temper himself, though; lest he become our generation's Nikola Tesla/Howard Hughes in more ways than one.....

    1. Re:Genius and insanity go hand in hand by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I am glad he has fire and passion. He is fighting against a lobby that spans centuries, so even if his claims might be a bit over the top, the people who want to seem him out of business are many, and are THE richest people out there.

      He is competing against the most powerful people on this planet, so it is pretty darn amazing he has done this well. He also has showed the auto industry is stagnant -- his first commercial vehicle faster than most sports cars except the high end Italian makes? Impressive. Same car using a completely new drivetrain? More impressive. Same car with zero deaths? Still more impressive.

      Elon Musk may be a bit of a blowhard, but he is actually effecting change.

      Compared to Teslas, what other electric vehicles out there can smoke even an average sports car like a Corvette? A Leaf? Maybe in free fall. A Prius. Nope. Elon Musk has made a completely new car category, something not seen since the soccer moms wanted station wagons back, but didn't want them called station wagons, so they were named crossovers.

  11. Re:False? by Daniel_Staal · · Score: 2, Informative

    The claim is false: The NHTSA rates cars on a 5-point scale, and gave the Tesla S a 5-point rating, the highest they could get. This rating is based on several sub-ratings, where the Tesla also got 5-point ratings, in all categories.

    Tesla is basically trying to claim for marketing purposes the fact that they got 5-point ratings in all of the subcategories (which isn't necessary for a 5-point overall rating, and in fact is extremely unusual, if not unique) means that they got 'better than a normal 5-point rating'. Which, ok, they did, but the rating only goes to five points. They can't create a new rating scale just for themselves.

    --
    'Sensible' is a curse word.
  12. Re:Rounding is stupid by BitZtream · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Because the rating system isn't accurate enough to say for sure that .1 difference is accurate. The ratings are subjective enough that whole numbers are as accurate as you can get reliably.

    --
    Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
  13. Other manufacturers are jealous by Imagix · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Apparently people aren't reading what's been said. Tesla's press release says: "National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has awarded the Tesla Model S a 5-star safety rating", and "NHTSA does not publish a star rating above 5". Thus Tesla is not claiming that they were assigned a 5.4 since they outright acknowledge that NHTSA doesn't publish a rating above 5. What Tesla did say is that if one were to take the individual scores that were provided by the NHTSA (which apparently includes ratings above 5, and possibly decimal as well) and average those, the resultant number would be a 5.4.
    Now what is probably getting the other manufacturers upset is that the clipping of the results at 5 means that the vehicles that just squeaked into the 5 look the same as vehicles which may have blown past the 5. If they didn't like that, why aren't the individual scores also integral and clipped at 5? Then one could not possibly claim (or even appear to claim) a number higher than 5.
    So, this whole release is trying to beat up Tesla for something they didn't say. They didn't say that the NHTSA awarded them a 5.4 rating (see the first quote). They did say: "achieved a new combined record of 5.4 stars.".

  14. Up next: "Zero Emissions" claim by Powercntrl · · Score: 2

    Here in the USA, the grid is 68% fossil fuels. So unless Tesla is including a free ZPM with every purchase, "Zero Emissions" is a crock of shit, just like a 5.4 star safety rating.

    --

    ---
    DRM is like antifreeze, to the MPAA/RIAA it's sweet, to the consumers it's poison.
    1. Re:Up next: "Zero Emissions" claim by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The Tesla, a vehicle, does not generate emissions.

      If you charge it with carbon-sourced electricity, the Tesla, a vehicle, still doesn't generate emissions.
      If you strap a diesel generator to the roof to run your personal electronics, the Tesla, a vehicle, still doesn't generate emissions.
      If you load up the trunk with flatulent cattle, the Tesla, a vehicle, still doesn't generate emissions.

      That some people have trouble parsing natural language is not Elon's problem.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    2. Re:Up next: "Zero Emissions" claim by CanHasDIY · · Score: 2

      That some people think hyperbole is a valid response is everyone's problem.

      --
      An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
    3. Re:Up next: "Zero Emissions" claim by bobbied · · Score: 3, Funny

      When it catches fire?

      It creates emissions then...

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    4. Re:Up next: "Zero Emissions" claim by slew · · Score: 2

      I often see other cars with Partial Zero Emissions stickers. This confuses me as any part of zero is zero.

      That's because you have to think like a california bureaucrat to understand this. It's not partially zero, it just partially counts towards meeting a zero-emission requirement.

      In 1990, california passed a law that 10% of the cars for sale in california by 2003 needed to be ZEV zero emission vehicles. Note that ZEV doesn't mean zero-emissions for the environment, but simply zero tail-pipe emissions (e.g., electric cars or hydrogen fuel cells). The California Air Resources Board (aka CARB) that was tasked to enforce this law found out that basically battery and fuel cell technology wasn't mature enough yet and the whole mandate was not gonna happen. Rather than declare failure, after a while, the bureaucrats simply changed the rules and created two new category of cars in order to declare victory.

      One category of cars was known as the "partial" ZEV or PZEV that was just a really clean gas powered car, but was only allowed to partially count towards the 10% requirement (only up to 6% could count towards the 10%). The other was the "advanced technology" or AT-PZEV which would be something like a hybrid electric or plug-hybrid (which was allowe to count another 2% towards the 10%).

      Originally, car manufacturers only made small numbers of these PZEV cars and sold them exclusively in California and New-York simply to comply with emission mandates in those states. Now they slap the label on any gasoline car that happens to meet the PZEV low-emissions requirement and sell the cars pretty much everywhere.

    5. Re:Up next: "Zero Emissions" claim by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 2

      Actually, Texas is on a separate grid.

      We're not all interconnected. I was one of the people, during Y2K planning, who made dang sure of that, so we wouldn't get a cascade grid failure if any of the circuitry software glitched. There are reasons for that - we literally had people at the physical switches just in case.

      I get that you hate America and that Texas is going to wind power and solar power, but back when I was born in Texas it was a Blue state too.

      Adapt. Because climate change is going to whallop Galveston again, and it ain't gonna be pretty, y'all.

      --
      -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  15. Re:I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be.. by i+kan+reed · · Score: 2

    Yeah, Musk is self-righteous and crazy intense about the PR for his companies. However, this seems like a warning that was justified, and at the same time might not have been foreseen by those making the claims, because it's kind of a technical quibble.

  16. So how did he get a 5.4? by gameboyhippo · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Anyone have any explanation on how he got a 5.4? I don't think Musk would just arbitrarily post a number.

  17. Re:I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be.. by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Musk might even be correct, but one must always be careful around government types, they'll use your own tax dollars to smack you down and have nothing better to do.

    Sometimes you have to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, and know when to walk away.

  18. Individual Ratings by Imagix · · Score: 3, Informative

    Yep. The NHTSA apparently gives the manufacturers the individual ratings in each category, which presumably go above 5 and may be decimal. They may have some sort of agreement that they aren't allowed to publish the individual ratings.

  19. Re:Sorry NHTSA by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 4, Funny

    Pfffff...... his sound system goes to 11 .4 , bitch!

    --
    I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
  20. Re:False? by QuasiSteve · · Score: 4, Insightful

    As far as I can tell, Tesla claims - as do several news outlets - that the NHTSA also releases some other raw numbers to the manufacturers which Tesla then decided to 'combine' (whether that's adding or averaging or whatever - who knows.) to give a 5.4 .

    Really, the issue is lack of transparency - since we, the public, don't get to see those numbers. Thus we can't really give a good opinion other than "NHTSA says 5 is the maximum. THE MAXIMUM!" and all nod in agreement at the overlord's words apparently for fear of getting booted out.

    This in turn leads to gems like this:
    "No matter what, you can't say it's the safest car ever tested, just that it had the best overall test score of any vehicle tested by NHTSA." - NHTSA ( http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/tesla-crash-test-rating-high-maker-claimed/story?id=20024779 )

    So it had the best overall test score .. but is not necessarily the safest. But the test is on safety. So it's the best in safety.. but not necessarily the best in safety.

    Maybe while they're quibbling they could come up with a system that makes sense to themselves, the manufacturers and, most importantly, the public. If in the end that means Tesla does get a 5.4 and they want to hang on to 5 stars - well I guess they'll just have to lower the rating on a bunch of other cars.

  21. Re:I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be.. by MiniMike · · Score: 4, Funny

    The next Tesla ad will claim a safety rating of 11.0 stars from the NHTSA (small print: National Highway Tesla Sales Association).

  22. Re:Wow, thanks for the info /. by TapeCutter · · Score: 2

    Oh come on, it doesn't matter what Slashdot think, Musk is still just a side-show scammer who got lucky.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  23. Re:I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be.. by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 4, Insightful

    About 80% of the comments already seem to be talk about how the NHTSA actually did give them a 5.4, but only allows them to advertise whole numbers and nothing above 5. So... it's a technical dispute over bureaucratic assholery.

  24. Re:Wow, thanks for the info /. by Desler · · Score: 2

    oily benefactors

    Hey, now! Dice.com is a lot of things but that's a low blow!

  25. Re:Tesla uses different scales for things by Ecuador · · Score: 2

    No, you don't get it.
    All volume controls go to 10.
    Nigel's go to 11. They are one louder.
    Similarly, all safety ratings go to 5.
    Tesla's goes to 5.4, it is .4 safer. For example say that you are in the safest car you could find, it is all the way up to 5 stars safety rating. All the way up. But you want it a little more safer, to be able to go over the cliff, so what can you do? That's where Tesla comes, giving you that extra .4.

    --
    Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent. Polar Scope Align for iOS
  26. What a piece of Junk! by freeze128 · · Score: 4, Funny

    "She'll make .5 past light."
    "She may not look like much, but she's got it where it counts."

  27. Re:This happens when you go against the status quo by lgw · · Score: 2

    There's no such thing as a "big oil" company any more - the big guys are all "energy" companies and care as much about natural gas. In places where electricity comes from natural gas, the energy companies may make more per mile from the Tesla than a gas-burner (maybe not this year, since natural gas is so cheap right now, but the logistics from oil drill to gas pump are complex and expensive, compared to selling natural gas to power companies).

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  28. Re:Rounding is stupid by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 2

    If Tesla really did rank 5.4, then let the other manufactures get some public shaming. Maybe they can respond to purchasing competition & catch up and make their cars safer.

    Again - since Musk is the only one who hasn't played by the rules here, why are you assuming the other five-star-rated cars are exactly 5.0? There likely have been others that scored 5.2, 5.3, or 5.39 on that particular sub-test - but their manufacturers followed NHTSA guidelines when promoting their vehicles' safety.

    You really have no evidence that the Tesla tested out as being significantly safer than those other five-star cars.

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  29. Re: Wow, thanks for the info /. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    How many supplies have _you_ delivered to the ISS?

  30. Re:I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be.. by EvanED · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So... it's a technical dispute over bureaucratic assholery.

    To play devil's advocate for a second, measurements like the safety ratings inherently have error to them. For something like car safety, is a 5.4 really better than a 5.3, or was that just a quirk of the particular tests they did, and the 5.3 would be safer on the road?

    Look at it from the NHTSA's perspective: if you think that Tesla's advertising is making claims that aren't particularly supportable because of margins of error like that and they're using your data to do it (and in the process saying essentially "NHTSA says we're the safest car on the road" when you don't want to make that claim), I think you'd be well within the realm of reasonableness to make them stop it.

  31. Re:I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be.. by LordLimecat · · Score: 2

    Musk doesnt need a rebuttal, since (if Im reading this right) NHTSA didnt contradict his claim that the internally provided NHTSA data showed a 5.4 rating; their objection appears to be that, for advertising / marketing purposes, the "official" NHTSA numbers end at 5 and you arent supposed to quote NHTSA as assessing a higher number than that.

    Maybe Im mis-reading this, but the Tesla press release from August even said as much-- that the "public" rating was 5 stars, but the "eyes only" manufacturer assessment was higher. Certainly NHTSA doesnt seem to contradict that the Tesla scored quite high, or even the claim that it was a record.

  32. Re:I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be.. by tlhIngan · · Score: 5, Informative

    To play devil's advocate for a second, measurements like the safety ratings inherently have error to them. For something like car safety, is a 5.4 really better than a 5.3, or was that just a quirk of the particular tests they did, and the 5.3 would be safer on the road?

    Not really.

    What happens is cars are rated to the current safety rating - the reason you can score above 5 is because the number is based on the raw figures and the current weightings.

    The NHTSA records down in its database the raw numbers, then uses those numbers to calculate the safety rating based on the current weightings (from empirical data). This lets them recalculate the safety rating as need be - yesteryear's 5 stars may be this year's 3 stars, for example. Or, depending on how cars individually perform, it's possible two 5 star cars with the old rating may become a 3-star and a 4-star car.

    So you cannot compare "stars" between model years, but you can compare them with historical vehicles recalculated to new standards. After all, many old 5 star vehicles may lack the safety features present on today's modern vehicles, so they won't be 5 stars anymore in the current rating.

    The rating will go down as new model years and new tests are introduced - after all, we'd have hit 5 stars 50 years ago if the tests didn't change. The NHTSA updates its tests and ratings when too many cars are pegged - and there's a new test that apparently reflect the more common crashes that many "5 star" cars now fare poorly on.

    Next year, the 2013 Tesla Model S may drop from 5.4 to 4.3. But the 2014 Tesla Model S may still get a full 5 stars because Tesla anticipated the new tests and built the cars to withstand them appropriately.

  33. Re:False? by LordLimecat · · Score: 2

    No, thats NOT what tesla claimed, their actual claim was exactly this:

    NHTSA does not publish a star rating above 5, however safety levels better than 5 stars are captured in the overall Vehicle Safety Score (VSS) provided to manufacturers, where the Model S achieved a new combined record of 5.4 stars.

  34. Re: I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be. by LordLimecat · · Score: 2

    Thats possible, but Tesla indicates that 5.4 is a new record, and it does seem that 5-star ratings in every category is unusual.

    They also provide this handy graphic, but being a complete failure at statistics I cant confirm that it supports their claim.
    http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/model-s-five-star-safety-rating.jpg

  35. Re:He's not in Tesla's league by femtobyte · · Score: 2

    During Tesla's initial work on AC power, electricity was a luxury for the rich rather than the common man's utility. And the "particle beam weapons, remote control devices, and wireless power" didn't exactly get to "majority of the populace" status, either. Giving Tesla credit for every engineering advancement in those fields over half a century since his death is a bit excessive hero-worship. Tesla did a lot of great stuff, but a lot wasn't particularly useful at the time (or even later, for the more wildly speculative projects based on handwaving more than practical engineering). Your glorification of Tesla is like someone looking back fifty years from now and saying that Musk single-handedly put an electric car and a rocket ship in every middle-class garage --- a hint of fact under a heap of exaggeration.

  36. Re:I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    No, he's not correct. If he wants to go into more detail about safety than the NHTSA does, or make claims on his own, that's fine.

    They are correct, you are wrong.

    "NHTSA does not publish a star rating above 5, however safety levels better than 5 stars are captured in the overall Vehicle Safety Score (VSS) provided to manufacturers, where the Model S achieved a new combined record of 5.4 stars."

    The NHTSA is pissed because you're not supposed to TELL people what the ACTUAL safety rating is.

    For example, the Tesla's VSS works out to 5.4 stars prior to rounding, another car has 4.5 stars prior to rounding. Despite being almost an entire "star" apart, both these vehicles get "5 stars" and appear to be just as safe to the consumer. The NHTSA is pissed because they don't want the public to be aware of it, because people will rightfully ignore the star ratings and demand the raw VSS instead. And that would show many cars are a lot worse in comparison than the Star System reveals... and the people who are invested in those companies pend a LOT of money on political donations.

    It's ALSO important to note that even the NHTSA admits they don't even consider many of the more advanced safety systems in their calculations at all.

  37. What a load of BS. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    1) the grid is just fine. It does not have the issues that you seem to think.
    2) EVs with larger batteries, charge in the nighttime with cheap energy, but will lower the price of electricity for all of us.
    3) US's electricy is 37% coal; 27% natural gas; 20% Nuclear; 7% hydro; 1% oil/gas/etc; with the rest coming from AE.
    4) numerous studies have shown that our grid and power situation is good enough to provide more than 90% of our transportion energy, provided that about 70% of that is during night-time charging. In fact, by having true EVs with about 150 MPC, it will LOWER our electricity costs since the bill for the grid and all the rest is spread over to EVs AND utilities can drop expensive on-demand systems for daytime, and instead go with more base-load systems since they will be used in the night as well.

    But hey, do not let us interfere with your wet dream.

  38. Re:I wonder what Elon's rebuttal to this will be.. by Paradise+Pete · · Score: 2

    Bought ~6000 shares at $17/share, sold most of it at ~$190, bought it all back at $130.

    So you're claiming you put up $100k early on, sat back and let it run well past a million without taking profits, then miraculously sold at the very top.
    Maybe that's what happened but it's difficult to believe. How about posting a transaction statement or two?