IDC: PC Shipments Decline Worse Than Forecasted, No Recovery Expected

symbolset writes "Zach Whittaker over at ZDNet covers an IDC report. In it the 2013 9.7% forecast decline in PC shipments is advanced to 10.1%. Further, IDC's longer-term forecast turns quite grim: contracting 23% from 2012 levels by 2017. There is also a projection of future Windows tablet sales, and a statement that total Windows tablet sales for 2013 are expected to be 'less than 7.5 million units.'"

Comments

Hemingway Quote

[Anonymous Coward]

“How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

-- Ernest Hemingway

Expected

[K. S. Kyosuke]

That's what you get when you plan for planned obsolescence and then can't actually make the machines obsolete. What's "grim" about it?

Re:Expected

[Anonymous Coward]

I blame Windows 8.

Re:Expected

[EzInKy]

Yeah, it really sucks but that is not solely the cause. It's the lockdown that is the cause of the eminent death of the PC industry. Why buy a general computing device that doesn't let you do general computing? Can't believe Microsoft sold the hardware manufacturers on this shit.

Re:Expected

[lagomorpha2]

I agree, it's entirely the fault of Microsoft and Windows 8. With Vista Microsoft did their job of making sure the core operating system was so inefficient that it required new high end hardware just to run basic applications smoothly. With Windows 7 and 8 Microsoft has actually been backpedling by writing code that actually runs MORE efficiently!

Clearly the way to save the computer industry is for Microsoft to introduce some major bugs to their next OS that causes it to require 10x the system resources of Windows 8.

Re:Expected

[VortexCortex]

That's rubbish. People simply do not care about other OSes. The reality is no one other than gamers has a desire for a faster machine. Browsing the web and ripping the odd disk does not make someone want a new machine.

Bullshit. Having a slow web browsing experience does cause folks to buy new Desktops and portable PCs (I write cross platform code in a meta language with various target languages as an evolutionary strategy to survive any vast platform changes, so to me a notebook, tablet or phone is just a Personal Computer with a very capital P).

As HTML, CSS and JS have become more feature rich and heavily in use folks I've personally helped folks buy new hardware. When I worked in retail computer sales long ago "Slow Web Browsing" was the #1 reason to buy a new desktop computer. That same factor has been a prime driver of sales in mobile computing as well. Since the computing demands browsers doesn't follow Moore's Law, the larger devices like PCs and Notebooks are now fast enough that web advances take longer to push progress. Before the Internet it was bigger and more featurefull OSs and Office software (and games) which drove PC sales. Nowadays even a dinky phone can do stylized graphical text.

Now that portable PCs have become fairly widespread the websites are making decisions that don't exclude the lower power devices. This means also less pressure on upgrading your PC.

I look to advances in hardware accelerated GPUs and heterogeneous computing tech to bring 3D to the web, if not through webGL, then through one of the scene graph markup languages -- Or via extending the box model in a 3rd dimension. This will be a boon to augmented reality tech which is the next big thing -- Looking through your PC's display as a lens to see sales and markings virtually -- Having your display shift with your body to extend your display as through a window. My head/eye tracking uses a webcam. I can tilt my head to see surrounding workspaces, and press ctrl+space while looking at it to switch.

The trend in computing has always been for smaller and more general purpose devices. Nowhere is this more evident than in the most computationally expensive mass market software: Games. Initially we had mechanical games (1 machine : 1 game). Arcade cabinets (1 machine : many games, but only 1 installed); As RAM got cheaper and hardware smaller cabinets with multiple games on one machine, switching between them. Hardware got smaller still we got home consoles that could play hundreds of different games, one at a time -- Note that consoles killed the Arcades despite their lower power; It was the size and accessibility that trumps speed after a certain capability is reached (16bit era). Gaming has flirted with PCs vs Consoles for a while until the Consoles became neutered PCs (both have multiple simultaneous applications [eg: dash] and many games per box). Unsurprisingly, PCs are now winning over consoles -- As predicted it's the smaller, lower power, more accessible portable, general purpose PCs (w/ integrated phones/wireless coms) which will end the dedicated gaming device console era.

This is mirrored in computing history, special purpose adding machine, dedicated computer for a problem space, general purpose computing switching between application (DOS-era), then multiple concurrent applications, and now distributed / synchronized applications. Many don't realize this is where we're going -- a Desktop PC to be the hub for all your distributed (synchronized) personal cloud -- streaming your data to you in a Trust No One manner. The reasons are many, one pressure is invasive government spying, another is being able to buy a new device, put in your PC node address, and not having to "migrate" software; Another is that families share their media (games, music, movies, medical records, etc). That's why Google's pushing NaCl, and browsers are becoming the application deployment target -- Not that they're

Re:Good

[realityimpaired]

They didn't say that there's a drop in overall computing devices sales, only in PC sales. They actually say that tablet sales are up... If anything, this suggests *more* in landfills, because a number of PC's that would otherwise be donated to a charity like Computers for Schools are no longer happening, meanwhile tablets that can't be upgraded/repurposed are being tossed.

Case in point, I've owned two tablets in the last 18 months. The first one turned out to be a piece of junk, and I gave it to a friend who was looking for something for the kids. There are people who would, in the same situation, simply toss it.

Simply no need to buy as many anymore

[Tridus]

It used to be that a house with multiple PCs wasn't that uncommon. With phones & tablets there are now many households that can get by with zero PCs, and many more that can do everything they need with just one.

Real world user performance has stagnated, with hardware gains not translating into doing a given task faster anymore. A PC from three years ago isn't that much slower at what most users are doing than a brand new one, so there's no particular need to upgrade.

This is what a mature market looks like. The product is going to continue to sell for a long time, but it's not the hot item it used to be.

Why replace what works?

[nctritech]

PC horsepower exceeded the needs of the average non-professional user a long time ago. I'm sitting in front of a $400 laptop from a couple of years ago that I can use for Adobe Premiere workflow! The market is flooded with computers that do everything a person needs, so why would you expect sales to continue increasing? People who barely use computers are moving to tablets, but tablets aren't what is trashing PC sales. People just don't need new ones, and good for them for milking that hardware until it blows up.

Re:Good

[WebmasterNeal]

Every friend I know who games has built their own computer in the last couple years. If anything I've seen this trend increase rather than decrease. As a whole, less people are buying desktops but gamers are sticking with it.

Re:My PC is NSA spyware

[gnasher719]

Microsoft helped the NSA bypass their crypto. They were the first to join PRISM.

Do you actually have any evidence for this? Seriously, there are huge amounts of accusations flying around, but no real evidence. And what are the alternatives? Walled garden, becoming property of the advertisers, or a UI that only Stallman could love.

Re:Good

[Vanderhoth]

I'd have to argue that PCs last longer. I've never replaced a desktop or laptop more than once every four years. Using my family, which I understand is a very small non-representative sample.

I've had two laptops in the last 6 years, one is sitting in a closet being used as a media server for my house the other is my primary. I've never owned a tablet, but I'm thinking of getting one. I just don't know if I can justify it for the stuff I want to use it for (games and programming). It might be alright to take to the in-laws to read the morning news or surf the web rather than lugging my laptop back and forth. Or I could give one to my wife, since all she does is surf the web and play facebook games, and save some money on replacing her three year old over powered laptop, which I might turn into a Minecraft server.

I digress, In the last six years:
My brother has gone through three tablets and is looking at another one. iPad, playbook, iPad2, now looking at a Transformer. (3 tablets)
My younger sister took one of his old ones as her first tablet, but has since gone through two more and currently has an iPad2. iPad (hand-me-down lasted 3 months), iPad (dropped in pool), Kindle (not a hand-me-down), iPad2 (3 tablets, I didn't count the first iPad since it was a hand-me-down)
My Step-mother has had two tablets (one was a Kindle replaced by her kindle fire) (2 tables)
My mom, who lives in the states, has had more tablets than I care to mention, she comes to visit every year and for the last five years has a different model every time she's here. (5 tablets)
My Dad did get one, but he's barely touched it in three years. He's an old school developer and prefers something with a keyboard and mouse. iPad (1 tablet)
My older sister has had an iPad and a Kindle and currently has a surface RT. Her BF gave it to her two weeks ago and she hates it, too slow, too heavy, doesn't run the software she expected it to (because she thought she was getting a surface pro). Supposedly the BF is taking it back this week, but she wants another tablet to replace her original iPad, which runs like crap now. I recommended a Nexus if she didn't want iPad2 or iPad Air. I think she'll probably be going with the iPad Air since carrying weight matters to her as she travels a lot for her job. iPad, Kindle, Surface RT, TBA (3 tablets)
My Mother in-law is getting her first tablet for Christmas. ASUS Transformer Prime (1 tablet)

So of the people I know who have/use tablets that's about 2.5 tablets per person over the last six years. Where as between me an my wife three laptops over the last six years and the laptops get repurposed until the literally don't function anymore so they really last me between six to eight years. Tablets get handed down or tossed out because once they're not useful for everyday tasks anymore they sit around collecting dust.

That's just my take on it though.

Re:Smartphone in the first place

[AvitarX]

But you probably need a computer and home internet too (and have them).

Plenty of smart phone users have neither, and yet can't afford to be completely marginalized.

home phone $20 (I think) + home internet $30, so that's $50/month.

looks at Tmobile ($30/month + $.10 / minute over 100 minutes, unlimited texts, 5GB fast data) or Metro PCS ($50/month unlimited text and minutes, I forget how much fast network), the extra couple hundred dollars for a mid level smart phone (Nexus 5, iphone 5c for example) vs low end computer is well worth it and the same monthly cost.

That's assuming that all one needs a computer for is to look things up on the internet and have an email address, if someone needs a computer to write, or some such (for example they have school aged children) it obviously isn't a substitute.

You could argue library, but the advantage of having ready access to the internet is pretty big vs having to take a half day trip to get the access, and plenty of the working poor are capable of figuring this out and making a decision.