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2013: an Ominous Year For Warnings and Predictions
dcblogs writes "This year may be remembered for its striking number of reports and warning of calamitous events. The National Intelligence Council released its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds report that included a number of dire possibilities ahead, including the prospect of a catastrophic solar storm, on par with the 1859 Carrington Event. Historical records suggest a return period of 50 years for a repeat of the Quebec-level storm that knocked out the power for 6 million in 1989, and 150 years for very extreme storms, such as the Carrington Event, according to Lloyd's, in a report this year. Scientists at the Idaho National Laboratory recently demonstrated in tests that 'geomagnetic disturbances have the power to disrupt and possibly destroy electrical transformers, the backbone of our nation's utility grid.' This was also the year the average daily level of CO2 reached a concentration above 400 parts per million. In a recent National Academies report this year, 'Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises,' scientists recommend creation of a global early warning system to alert mankind to abrupt climate changes. A recent paper in Nature, Abrupt rise of new machine ecology beyond human response time, said financial trading systems are driving transaction times down to the speed of light, and 'the quickest that someone can notice potential danger and physically react, is approximately 1 second.'"
How are we going to harness tech and knowledge to create a better world for our children and grand-children?
Is it really an improvement to have machines such as the ShapeOko: http://www.shapeoko.com/ rather than teaching children how to use a set of carving gouges, chisels, saws, &c.?
Is it inevitable that we will see the banning of commercial fishing as commercial hunting was out-lawed during our grand-parents' day?
What technologies or organizations are there which offer options for making the world a better place?
- http://opensourceecology.org/ --- and their ``global village construction kit are one bright light --- arguably the ShapeOko has a place in that though.
- http://www.heifer.org/ --- teach a man to fish and all that
Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow.
Time to put on the sack-cloth and roll around in the dirt.
Ted Danson's prediction that all U.S. cities will be completely uninhabitable by 1980 because Reagan was president throughout the 1970's
Wait, what?
Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
More fun: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/22/failed-mirth-earth-day-predictions/
http://reason.com/archives/2000/05/01/earth-day-then-and-now
Here's a joke:
Q: What's the difference between a Bible-Thumper who predicts the Rapture and an Environmentalist who predicts a religious Eco-Apocalypse?
A: There are actually two differences: The Bible-Thumper actually has the decency to predict a firm date, and then admits that he was wrong when the rapture didn't occur.
AntiFA: An abbreviation for Anti First Amendment.
The sky ius falling! H. Penny
09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B - D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0 45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
Billons were spent between 2003 and 2010 to deny climate change (pdf) and probably even more has been used for that goal in the last 3 years. In any case, is more money that was ever used to measure climate change, to detect dangerous asteroids, and prevent the spreading of pandemic diseases.
Maybe science should stop doing warnings and studies and let things happens with no preparations from our side. We deserve it.
Your weird obession with denying the overwhelming evidence we're destroying the environment aside, I was referring to your statement that Reagan was President in the 70s.
Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty is unraveling pretty quickly as a result of the US cooperation with India. Now China is helping Pakistan http://www.newsweek.com/china-commits-65-billion-pakistani-nuclear-project-225076 Regional nuclear was is becoming more likely.
Get with the program: Everything bad that has ever occurred in the 20th century is due to Reagan and Reagan alone. Don't let the corporatist media fool you into thinking that anyone other than Reagan was running the show in the 20th century. DON'T BE A SHEEPLE.
Oh, BTW, Reagan was also so stupid that he couldn't tie his own shoes.
AntiFA: An abbreviation for Anti First Amendment.
for a repeat of the Quebec-level storm that knocked out the power for 6 million in 1989
I was there. And it was really, really creepy. From my apartment building I could see the electrical arcing from the power station way on the other side of town. The lights went out everywhere, and then the Aurora Borealis started lighting up the sky - something that rarely happens at that lattitude (Montreal). It was - surreal.
Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
Citation please?
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
even MORE accurate than ALGORE's 100% accurate prediction that the entire polar ice cap has permanently melted and all polar bears are dead.
Polar bears are quite intelligent animals, and don't listen to Al Gore, and don't do what he tells them to do.
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
Everything bad that has ever occurred in the 20th century is due to Reagan and Reagan alone.
Oh, it wasn't so bad. Back when Reagan was President, "sleeping with the President" meant taking a nap during cabinet meetings. Clinton gave it spanking new meaning . . .
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
sigh, Slashdot used to have enough intelligent readers who would moderate such stupidity down where it belongs.
to err is human, to forgive is divine, to forget is... umm...
Yep, Hyperbole is a force which harnesses the innate fears of the masses. But the fact hyperbole falls short doesn't make me less sad about the extinctions of tigers, elephants and great apes, etc. When I see people snickering that polar bears aren't extinct yet, it just makes me sadder. I get truly aggravated by green bumper stickers which discredit the unimpeachable thesis that extinctions of other species are caused by our species at a rate surpassed only by volcanoes, meteors and comets.
Gently reply
You mean +5 funny satire? The sad truth is that there are plenty of "enlightened" people who post all the "correct" beliefs spoonfed to them over at HuffPo who basically believe that post at face value.
AntiFA: An abbreviation for Anti First Amendment.
It's always cute when denialists think they're somehow different from antivaxers and creationists.
The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
Well, look at Chicago, for example.
Most large cities are nice for rich folks and a kind of living hell for the poor.
I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
"Oh, BTW, Reagan was also so stupid that he couldn't tie his own shoes." I think we'd need a citation for that... however, given his early onset Alzheimer during his presidency, it's plausible.
"Everything bad that has ever occurred in the 20th century is due to Reagan and Reagan alone." I think you're not really giving credit to many other Republicans who came after and expanded his policies. Both Bushes are prime examples... also, the enablers, Rove, McCain, Gingrich and the whacko Koch Tea Party. There's lots of people who can take credit for destroying our democracy.
I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
These predictions are all 100% accurate, just like Ted Danson's prediction that all U.S. cities will be completely uninhabitable by 1980 because Reagan was president throughout the 1970's and are even MORE accurate than ALGORE's 100% accurate prediction that the entire polar ice cap has permanently melted and all polar bears are dead.
Which specific predictions are you talking about? Nobody brought up Ted Danson, so I fail to see his relevance unless you are making this argument: if Ted Danson's predictions aren't accurate, then nobody's can be.
In any case it seems to me that the summary and linked article is kind of sloppy, almost as if it were designed to provoke this kind of silly strawman response.
For example, the notion that the power grid might be vulnerable to a geomagnetic storm the size of the 1859 event isn't a prediction. It's merely an assessment of vulnerability to a rare but possible event (e.g., a 14+m tsunami hitting Japan). A large geomagnetic storm is a possibility that should be taken into account, not an event to put on the calendar.
Likewise, nobody is suggesting that there's anything special about the 400ppm CO2 figure, other than that it is a round figure. It's common sense to look for climate impact, not because we've hit some "magic" number, but that CO2 levels are higher than they've been at any time in the past three million years. This is especially so because the slope of the CO2 concentration graph shows no sign of topping out.
Keep in mind there's no such thing as a "natural disaster". There are only natural events that catch us unprepared. There's nothing inherently disastrous about flooding in Bengladesh, except that economics and politics forces people to live in the flood plain. Likewise there's nothing about a world that's two or three degrees warmer that makes it uninhabitable by humans, but the changes involved along the way will be *perceived* as catastrophic. For example models predict a drier western US. That doesn't mean that one day it will stop raining, it only means that rainy years will be less common and drought years more common. For all we know we'll have a rainy year in 2014, but it still makes sense to plan for the day when the Colorado River won't be able to supply all the water cities in the west require from it (Los Angeles, San Diego, Denver, Phoenix, Tucson, Salt Lake City, and others). The disaster won't be lack of water, it will be lack of preparedness.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
My comment was about Reagan being President in the 70s. Which he wasn't.
Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
Like every other year before it.
systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
I went to view your reply and handily posted at the bottom of the page was this quote:
"Facts are stupid things." -- President Ronald Reagan (a blooper from his speeach (sic) at the '88 GOP convention)
Thank you, Slashdot.
I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
Errr, Reagan was elected in November of 1980, and I - for one - never heard Al Gore predict anything like this for 2013. 2035, maybe, but - let's try to be just a tiny bit accurate, OK?
You forgot Clinton... what a great Republican he was to help create the lending bubble.
Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
I'm pretty sure they are different; by definition, they believe in different things. But to people like you, who are incapable of sustaining a logical debate and thus must rest on the ad hominem, there is no difference.
Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
The beliefs are different; the thought processes are exactly the same. But then, I don't expect someone who can't tell the difference between an ad hominem argument and a simple description to understand that.
The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
Sub-prime lending was low (and even declining) until 2003 then increased dramatically and peaked in 2006 ending with the crash starting in July 2007 when Bear Stearns funds folded... I believe that this is Junior Bush's reign.
I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
That's pretty funny since the warmest years in the instrument record are 2005 and 2010 and the oceans are continuing to absorb energy right on schedule. Also, November 2013 was the warmest ever recorded globally. You can keep living with your delusions for a while yet but reality will catch up to them eventually.
Bingo!
Maybe even more intelligent than the guy you're quoting.
or, just lighten up Francis.
Get with the program: Everything bad that has ever occurred in the 20th century is due to Reagan and Reagan alone. Don't let the corporatist media fool you into thinking that anyone other than Reagan was running the show in the 20th century. DON'T BE A SHEEPLE.
Oh, BTW, Reagan was also so stupid that he couldn't tie his own shoes.
They fooled you. Reagan was a puppet, an actor hired to play a part.
Bill Clinton was the real evil behind America for the last 100 years!
Be seeing you...
2014 will be different though.
Nope, I predict that 2014 will get even more ominous predictions then this one.
Be seeing you...
But no commensurate disasters.. Oh we've had bad weather.. but it's been more like the us being the frog being boiled alive. We've adapted to these record tornados, floods etc, where they don't faze us enough...
The point behind the Ted Danson and Al Gore references is that right wingers these days have selected themselves down to only those who have no ability to interpret data for themselves, and make decisions by defining themselves as good true Americans, identifying the political and media figures who are also good true Americans and therefore trustworthy, and repeating the opinions they here from these trustworthy sources; any disagreeing ideas are obviously from bad people who hate America. This is so ingrained in them that they can't conceive of any other decision making process; nobody could be looking at the data and deciding that it demonstrates climate change. Therefore, these guys figure the way to argue with evil liberals is to tear down the obvious sources of their evil liberal opinions. If they can make Al Gore look unreliable, then all those AGW nutsv will just have to change their minds.
Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
You're arguing facts with a right winger?
Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.