Slashdot Mirror
A Rebuttal To Charles Stross About Bitcoin
New submitter buddha379 writes "Over the holidays we discussed a story from SF author Charles Stross called 'Why I Want Bitcoin to Die in a Fire,' just as Bitcoin's price collapsed on news of the Chinese government's cautious approach to the fledgling internet currency. Well known economist Paul Krugman quoted the piece in a NY Times blog post called 'Bitcoin is Evil'. Now, with U.S. regulators reaffirming their hands off approach, U.S. companies embracing it and prices surging again, Bitcoin Magazine returns with a rebuttal called 'Why Charles Stross Doesn't Know a Thing about Bitcoin.' The article notes that like many other popular pieces, Stross' story seems to 'completely miss the point on why Bitcoin is a revolutionary concept.'"
http://slashdot.org/index2.pl?fhfilter=bitcoin
Over the last few months, we've been averaging a little more than 1 Bitcoin story every 2 days. Please - please, stop accepting every submission that has the word Bitcoin in it. At this point, I'd almost like them to start covering the 2016 Presidential Election. Enough.
So what? Why does the price of bitcoin even matter? Bitcoins strength lies in its ability to be used as a payment processing network - and at a fraction of the cost of traditional payment networks (visa, mastercard, paypal, SWIFT, etc).
Everyone is obsessed with the price of bitcoin (and therefore comparing it to a ponzi scheme because of its price) and treating it as a speculative investment scheme or get rich quick scheme. This is actually very detrimental to bitcoin.
But no. Bitcoins power lies in using it as a payment processing network not its price. It does need some more price stability, however, so this crazy speculation needs to stop.
You can tell how powerful someone is by the magnitude of the crime they can commit and be able to get away with.
No. The power that Bitcoin may or may not have is not at all related to using it as a payment processing network.
People obsess over Bitcoin's price (in dollars, yuan, whatever) because a Bitcoin only has value if people agree it's worth an exchange for goods and/or services, and can reasonably expect to exchange a received Bitcoin for other goods and services.
Right now if I get 100 dollars, or 100 euro, or 100 yuan, or 100 yen, in payment for some services I render or product I sell, I can reasonably expect to go down the street and exchange that currency for hookers (services) and/or blow (goods), within a reasonable timeframe (say 1-5 years in the future.) Right now if I get 100 Bitcoin, I might be able to buy Michael Jordan's $16 million mansion in Chicago in 1-5 years - but it's equally likely that I won't be able to exchange them for anything in 1-5 years.
Most government-backed currencies (with the recent notable exception of the Zimbabwe dollar and several other currencies over the last 50 years) pass this test. Bitcoin, as of yet, does not. Many people would have to choose to use Bitcoin over a government-backed currency (think 60-80% of the population in your local country - in the US, that would be around 200-230 million.) In order to get that many people to switch, there would have to be a significant compelling reason for them to hold their wealth in Bitcoin instead of the government-backed currency. I have yet to see a compelling reason to switch. Not only that, there are high barriers to overcome yet: security, convenience of exchange, and relative durability all spring to mind as specific examples.
Given the above, coupled with the fact that the Bitcoin exchange rate is being manipulated by speculators, and the number of knock-off alternative currencies floating around, why would any rational person think about holding their wealth in Bitcoin at any given moment?
From TFA:
Bitcoin is more of a hybrid system than a true deflationary system. The gold standard is considered deflationary and Bitcoin is often seen as the digital equivalent of gold. Gold has a limited supply, so it is scarce, just like a digital currency. But real gold can only be subdivided so far. It can only be chopped up so far before it’s nothing but dust. Bitcoin has no such limitations. Theoretically, it can be subdivided into fractions of a coin almost indefinitely, growing as needed with people’s demands. Its current limitation is eight decimal places. Even with only 21 million Bitcoins, that’s still 2000 trillion of the smallest unit. The protocol is designed to be upgradeable, so if we ever need to divide it further we can.
The problem with a deflationary system is not one of divisibility. The problem with a deflationary system is that the value of a given amount of currency is basically guaranteed to increase over time, as the total amount of possible currency has a hard limit--by design, in Bitcoin's case. Unless human civilization starts becoming less valuable as a whole (which is BAD), this is basically inevitable.
That you can chop your Bitcoins up into Nanobitcoins doesn't change the fact that the currency will simply continue to increase in real value. That's like saying you can make a ten-ton boulder less heavy by crushing it into pebbles.
That this is advanced as a serious counterargument to deflation should tell you everything you need to know about the author(s) of this piece.
Obliteracy: Words with explosions
Wrong. Bitcoins' strength lies in the starbursts in the eyes of it's biggest proponents, who will gladly and patiently explain to you how they'll reform the monetary system, end poverty and make them fabulously wealthy.
Nothing is stronger than a True Believer, especially when they are neo-libertarians on a mission from Ayn.
You are welcome on my lawn.
> Once the last coins are mined, what happens?
Miners also get transaction fees included in the block, so they still have incentive to search for block hashes.
> how do you set fee levels such that people will validate little transactions as well as big ones?
Fees are *user defined*. If you are in a hurry, slap a big fee on it. If you can wait, put a small fee on it. The bitcoin software allows zero-fee transactions if you meet some conditions, and some miners will include zero fee transactions in a block if there is room. In the long run, many small transactions will move "off chain". For example, Coinbase processes bitcoin transactions for merchants, accepting BTC payments on their behalf and depositing local currency to their bank account. Conversely they sell BTC to individuals and pull money from bank accounts to pay for it. When a Coinbase user uses their online wallet to pay a Coinbase merchant, that can be all internal to Coinbase, and never reach the Block Chain. Eventually such processors will arrange to settle with each other in bulk transactions, gathering up many little ones and posting it as one big transaction on the block chain. That both avoids bloating the block chain, and makes small transactions easier to process.
> the value over which some country's national labs or universities turn on their supercomputers and mine almost everything
Custom chips (ASICs) that do nothing but the particular calculation for bitcoin mining are 100 times more efficient than GPU's, and 1000's of times more efficient than general CPUs. Supercomputers are useless for bitcoin mining. The world's top 500 supercomputers combined process 250 million GFLOPS ( http://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/ ). The Bitcoin Network at the moment is running at 78 billion GFLOPs, which is over 300 times faster. Custom hardware and monetary incentive wins big time. The downside is the ASICs are absolutely useless for any other calculation, because it is hardwired into the chip.
In the situation you're describing, all you're getting rid of is SWIFT. Banks processing Bitcoin payments in your situation can still create Bitcoin money through fractional reserve banking. Basically same as the gold system, but Bit-gold. There is nothing really innovative if you use Bitcoin that way.
If retail transactions are actually done on the Bitcoin network however, things get a bit more interesting, but the Bitcoin network will never scale to those transaction volumes.
:. Ultimate Control Dedicated/VM Servers
But is Bitcoin payment processing really that cheap?
Disclaimer: I started mining Bitcoins using the official client with CPUs. However, I don't really buy all of this blue-sky "to the moon" Bitcoin hype. For me it's more of a cool concept to test and mess around with.
Although the Bitcoin concept is revolutionary - if you use it as a payment network - as you can get rid of banking and payment processing industries, with such a peer-to-peer architecture, you have scalability issues that limit the amount of transactions that can be processed. Aside from the elephant-in-the-room technical limits (with the current 1MB blocksize, Bitcoin can process 10tx/s max. The VISA network can process a max of 25000tx/s) , you also have the question of why using Bitcoins is any better than current methods for the customer or merchant.
Fully decentralized peer-to-peer filesharing was hot back in the day because there was no digital content available on the net. It was also very slow on the completely decentralized systems. Now that the content industries have caught on, most people prefer to use those offerings (Youtube, Netflix, Spotify, etc.), due to the convenience and speed of those services.
With Bitcoin, it is the other way around. We have a very well developed retail financial services sector. You can pay people and businesses easily through many different means. The payment processors charges a comparatively small fee for commercial transactions - usually around 3%, and gets lower as volumes increase. Customer don't see this at all as credit card fees are paid by the merchant. From a customers point of view, why would I pay in Bitcoins, if I can much more protection by paying with a credit card? If you don't have any bitcoins, you will have to do a fiat-bitcoin conversion and then the merchant does a bitcoin-fiat conversion back for stabilty? That kills the values proposition of low rates. The spread for the two conversion will already be close to or over the 3% you pay your current payment processor. Not to mention the hassle. You can introduce a processor like Coinbase to optimize the process (and also increase transaction performance by keeping local transactions off-net), but then you've just introduced a middleman that will also charge you fees.
Wiring money overseas will cost customers a bigger fee, but this fee is usually fixed, so batch transfers are usually done. Furthermore, for people with frequent Forex needs, you can open an account with a dedicated Forex company that will give you much better rates and you can probably save on some fees with them as well as they have many local bank accounts in different countries accepting and sending money.
So all-in-all no, I don't think it's all smooth sailing for Bitcoin and once people wake up to the limitation of this particular and novel implementation or decentralized digital currency, it will be better for everybody involved. We will start asking the right questions (eg. is if possible at all to create a decentralized crypto-currency network with similar performance to commercial payment processing networks) and maybe incorporate some of the better ideas from Bitcoins to more practical applications.
:. Ultimate Control Dedicated/VM Servers