Threatened Pandemics and Laboratory Escapes: Self-fulfilling Prophecies

Lasrick (2629253) writes "Martin Furmanski, a medical doctor and medical historian, writes of the laboratory escapes of high-consequence pathogens that have occurred in recent decades (including several instances of smallpox!). The article explores 'gain of function" experiments-- experiments in which researchers manipulate dangerous pathogens to increase communicability among humans, and whether the benefit we see from those experiments outweighs the incredible risk. 'Many other laboratory escapes of high-consequence pathogens have occurred, resulting in transmission beyond laboratory personnel. Ironically, these laboratories were working with pathogens to prevent the very outbreaks they ultimately caused. For that reason, the tragic consequences have been called "self-fulfilling prophecies.''"

Comments

A dozen primates

[Warbothong]

Bruce Willis agrees.

Better Idea

[maz2331]

Wouldn't it make more sense to locate these labs in an incredibly isolated area like an island in the middle of the ocean or the Moon? Someplace that CAN be quarantined 100% in the event of a mishap?

Re:Better Idea

[RobinH]

I don't think you'll have a lot of top-notch research scientists applying for those jobs. Just like it's hard to attract doctors to rural areas, it's hard to attract the majority of people away from population centers, especially if you're looking for the best and brightest.

Re:Better Idea

[neilo_1701D]

An island is hardly isolated; something airborne could possibly make it to land or be carried by migratory birds.

The moon is an interesting idea; however consider the consequences of a rocket explosion during takeoff. Or, even more horrifying, consider the consequence of rocket failure and the payload crashing on to a populated area.

Re:Better Idea

[neilo_1701D]

As a counterpoint to this argument, consider the X-Planes of the 50's and 60's; these were all done precisely that way: by attracting the best and brightest to remote locations, cut off from population centers and given a remit to do the best they could. Think the Bell-X1, for example, or Lookheed's A-12 (which became the SR-71).

Re:Better Idea

[interkin3tic]

Well, if you want all possible funds going towards logistical problems rather than actual research on the intended subject area, sure, we could try that. I'll note that nothing is 100% sure: in the middle of the ocean, you could still have people stealing pathogens and releasing them for terrorism.

BSL4 labs are no joke already. We already spend a lot on the BSL4 facilities themselves, 1.2 billion in 2003 for example. The safety measures inside are considerable:

When dealing with biological hazards at this level the use of a positive pressure personnel suit, with a segregated air supply, is mandatory. The entrance and exit of a level four biolab will contain multiple showers, a vacuum room, an ultraviolet light room, and other safety precautions designed to destroy all traces of the biohazard. Multiple airlocks are employed and are electronically secured to prevent both doors opening at the same time. All air and water service going to and coming from a biosafety level 4 (or P4) lab will undergo similar decontamination procedures to eliminate the possibility of an accidental release.

wiki

Diseases that are out there in the wild, it seems stupid to suggest there's more of a risk from studying it than dealing with it if it happens. Smallpox, which has been eliminated in the wild and that we have a vaccine for, you could definitely make the case, however there would still be smallpox sources out there., it could re-emerge. There is no antiviral drug approved for smallpox. If we get wind that someone is making a smallpox bomb, or if it re-emerges naturally, we'd probably want to start testing cidofovir or some other drugs ASAP. And sticking all our labs dealing with it in the middle of the ocean is a good way to make sure that's as slow as possible.

Re:Better Idea

[CastrTroy]

Why not use robotics to work with the samples remotely? Put a laboratory in a remote place, heavily guarded, but don't require scientists to be physically present to do their work. This is probably the only way something like this could make sense on the moon. But then again, the transmission time to the moon, could make robotics tricky if you required real time control.

Re:Better Idea

[Marxist Hacker 42]

I think this place may be adequate:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atacama_Desert

Nothing survives there. In 200 million years, no form of bacteria has been able to evolve to survive in the conditions there. You'd have to use pressurized buildings and carefully controlled climate though.

Re:Better Idea

[Megol]

You are just wrong. Do you know of any class 4 labs that have any failure? The one I know of is placed where there can be no earthquakes, there can be no flooding, there are at least two power backups (batteries + generator). IIRC it also had a layered construction so that any improbable leak from the solid concrete "bunker" will not contaminate ground water. Oh yeah, it is also placed under ground with several security checks required to enter.

BTW I've been in another high security bunker when power failed - had to wait until the security doors was opened manually from the outside via a hydraulic system. Took some time, good no one in the group was claustrophobic.

Re:Better Idea

[FatdogHaiku]

As a counterpoint to this argument, consider the X-Planes of the 50's and 60's; these were all done precisely that way: by attracting the best and brightest to remote locations, cut off from population centers and given a remit to do the best they could. Think the Bell-X1, for example, or Lookheed's A-12 (which became the SR-71).

Many of the people involved were in the military and had no say in where they were posted. Qualified employees of military hardware contractors would also be hard pressed to refuse a job on a top secret project... and if they did it's a small pool of people and word gets around if you are not a team player. If you are a bad fit at Lockheed then GD, Hughes, Northrop, Raytheon, et al., would also question your viability. In the end I doubt many people had to be "attracted", they were just sent.

Re:Better Idea

[cusco]

The Atacama is a weird place. Other deserts have cacti and bugs and such. The Atacama has nothing. The only sign of life is an occasional mummified sea bird laying on the surface, with no indication whether it died a month ago or a century ago. Rock fragments that split and fall off lay in a corona around the parent because they never wash away in the rain. There is a slight crust on the top of the sand, like a snow crust, since the sand particles have lain together undisturbed for so long they've bonded together. I'm sure that if I were to cross the Paracas Peninsula today I would probably still see my tracks from 1987, partly filled in by dust but still visible.

It's very strange to be on a bus driving through this dead moonscape, and then drop into an irrigated river valley with rice paddies and shrimp farms. Then back up the other side of the valley, over the crest of the hill, and you're back on the moon.

Captain Trips!!

[neilo_1701D]

This was the basis for a Stephen King story in 1978, "The Stand".

Also "The Hot Zone" was a non-fictional account of an Ebola outbreak from a lab.

Re:Captain Trips!!

[CanHasDIY]

This was the basis for a Stephen King story in 1978, "The Stand".

Been a while since I read that one - did he actually go into detail about the origin of the plague, or just leave it at "plague killed most everyone?"

Considering the source, I wouldn't be surprised if he described not only the origin of the plague, but it's shape, texture, coloration, as well as the design of the lab it escaped from, the type of lighting there, what sort of fabric the scientists wore...

Re:Offtopic - April 1st joke?

[antdude]

Yeah, it was annoying. Also, it was HTML5 media player so it wasn't blocked like Flashblock, Mozilla's addon on demand player, etc.

Dear new Slashdot

[GoodNewsJimDotCom]

Don't link audio in the comments.

Re:Level 4 Containment

[geekoid]

I remember hearing the they contracted Bigfoot to do the work, but he contracted out to the Grays.