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Bookies Predict the Future of Tech

Posted by timothy on from the dead-eye-or-snake-eyes dept.

First time accepted submitter machineghost (622031) writes "It's one thing to make predictions about the future of tech; that happens all the time on Slashdot. But it's quite a different thing to put money on the line to back up those predictions, which is exactly what this British bookie has done. Think you know whether Google Glass will beat the iPhone, or whether we'll be ready to go to Mars and back by 2020? Now's your chance to capitalize on those predictions!" Or you could, y'know, invest money in at least some of them, and thereby increase their chances of succeeding.

10 of 50 comments (clear)

  1. But do you want it? by HiThere · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Just because you are convinced a particular technology is going to succeed doesn't mean that you want it to do so. Betting can, thus, be better than investing.

    --

    I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    1. Re:But do you want it? by lucm · · Score: 3, Informative

      You can short the loser side and get an immensely bigger payout if you are right. Options are pennies on the dollar compared to a bet or actual shares.

      And in any event, unless you buy in at the IPO, you don't "help" a company or technology by buying their stock since the said stock is owned by some other dude and the sale does not bring a single more dollar to the company; if anything there is administrative overhead for them. The only marginal impact you may have is that by buying or selling you have a tiny influence over the stock price, which may please or displease other shareholders, who can reward or punish executives accordingly.

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      lucm, indeed.
    2. Re:But do you want it? by mysidia · · Score: 3, Insightful

      you don't "help" a company or technology by buying their stock since the said stock is owned by some other dude and the sale does not bring a single more dollar to the company

      This is not quite true. Most companies dilute their stock regularly, to compensate management and founders with stock or option grants.

      The collection of buyers of those shares set the price for the stock -- which is ultimately being used to provide the company's equity financing.

      Now it's true if you bought a share of stock for $1000.... well it's not $1000 that goes directly or indirectly to the company.

      But you are trading places with someone who ultimately up the chain bought into their offering.

      In the event the buying volume ran out... the stock price could easily fall by a few %. Even a $0.01 price decrease is significant.

      So it's not that you aren' "giving" to the company --- it's just that the relative proportions of what you are giving are probably very very small, for a multi-billion$$ company.

    3. Re:But do you want it? by Opportunist · · Score: 2

      You have a stock exchange. It's almost like placing a bet.

      The cynic in me would say that's also the reason why real betting is disallowed. I mean, would you allow a competitor to exist if you controlled the law?

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  2. Not the future of tech by Iamthecheese · · Score: 2

    This isn't the future of tech so much as the odds of specific companies doing specific things. It may be a useful platform for hedging stock purchases but to say it's about the future of technology is silly. Look at the beginning of the era of personal computers, 1980... These bets are like saying "IBM will sell over 200,000 PC's in the year 2000". How many PC's IBM sold had a very small effect on total PC sales. Whether or not Google has 75% global land coverage in 6 years the important question is whether any company will. Whether Amazon is delivering mongoloads of stuff by drone the question is how much stuff will be delivered by anyone. The questions posed on the linked site are trivial except to the extent you're betting on stocks.

    --
    If video games influenced behavior the Pac Man generation would be eating pills and running away from their problems.
  3. Re:we already have that and do it every day by Adriax · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This is less rigged and better regulated.

    --
    I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it!
  4. Guys, 2020 is just sixe years from now by rasmusbr · · Score: 2

    SpaceX is an awesome company, but the only chance of them beginning to colonize Mars within six years is if aliens land on Earth and hand over the keys to their spacecraft to Elon Musk.

    The bet would be much more interesting if the deadline was 2034 (or even 2024, although that would be an incredibly long shot).

  5. Re:Predicting is easy, but not what people expect by lucm · · Score: 2

    You should post a screencast of you typing your comment in WordPerfect, with a small Rhodes electric piano music playing in the background. This would be a big hit with people who miss the series "Doogie Howser, MD".

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    lucm, indeed.
  6. Re:we already have that and do it every day by AHuxley · · Score: 2

    Re AC Citation needed. about the "This is less rigged and better regulated."
    "The Vampire Squid Strikes Again: The Mega Banks' Most Devious Scam Yet" (Feb 12, 2014)
    http://www.rollingstone.com/po...
    Everything Is Rigged: The Biggest Price-Fixing Scandal Ever (April 25, 2013)
    http://www.rollingstone.com/po...
    an easy understand insight into the aspect of the average person having a equal go.

    --
    Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
  7. Intrade by witherstaff · · Score: 2

    Nothing new, Intrade would allow you to bet on anything. I know there are a few places doing similar things.