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Why Tesla Really Needs a Gigafactory
Hodejo1 (1252120) writes "Tesla has already put over 25,000 cars on the road with more to come and, presumably, most will still be running well past the 8-year battery warranty. What would happen if it is time to replace the battery pack on an old Model S or X and the cost is $25K? Simple, it would destroy the resale value of said cars, which would negatively affect the lease value of new Tesla automobiles. That's a big part of the real reason why Tesla is building its own battery factory. They not only need to ensure enough supply for new cars, but they have to dramatically bring down the price of the replacement batteries low enough so owners of otherwise perfectly running old Teslas don't just junk them. The Tesla Roadster was not a mass produced vehicle, so the cost of replacing its battery is $40K. The economies of scale of a gigafactory alone will drop battery costs dramatically. Heavy research could drop it further over the next decade or so."
I think more than a few of the "big" car companies have shifted focus (back?) to hydrogen fuel cells. In the near future at least, the whole recharging "issue" is what bothers the big guys.
Very few Tesla owners are going to drive their $70 - 100,000 car across the country, take it to the Grand Tetons, do a tour or great Civil War historical sites in the South.
But people that buy cars from Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota... They use their cars for things other than tooling around town from wine bar to chic noshing establishment.
Sure, Tesla now has a cross-country "Super Charge" network, but Americans are impatient, and 30 minutes is too long. The liklyhood of breaking the boundaries that prevent faster charging in the near future are slim.
"Back in the day" when a "road trip" was an adventure, people would have had no problem with a 30 minute super charge, they would have plugged in and had a picnic lunch. Think "Airstream Culture". Those were the days when travel was exciting, now people just want to get the fuck where the are going and plug in to the nearest Wi-Fi.
So maybe the Big Guys have a point with hydrogen power cells that in reality are no more dangerous than 20 gallons of vaporized gas hitting a flame - if you're in an accident that punctures the tank and causes an explosion, your gone either way.
Random thoughts...
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By "many" you mean "about three", and they're all within 200 yards of Google HQ, where you find the kind of people who'd spend thirty bucks on an ethically sourced sustainable cress sandwich.
I'm not going to say that an electron is an electron, and there are probably trade-offs to be made in designing for, say, peak power versus overall efficiency. But there are plenty of battery powered vehicles out there already, and I remain to be convinced that the Tesla needs something that isn't already there.
From Steve Jobs' will:
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."