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Asteroid Impacts Bigger Risk Than Thought

Posted by Unknown on from the just-build-space-lasers dept.

Rambo Tribble (1273454) writes "The B612 Foundation, a U.S.-based nuclear test monitoring group, has disclosed that their acoustic sensors show asteroid impacts to be much more common than previously thought. Between 2000 and 2013 their infrasound system detected 26 major explosions due to asteroid strikes. The impacts were gauged at energies of 1 to 600 kilotons, compared to 45 kilotons for 1945 Hiroshima bomb."

4 of 172 comments (clear)

  1. 1-600 kilotons by Arancaytar · · Score: 5, Informative

    8/25/2000 (1-10 kilotons) NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
    4/23/2001 (1-10 kilotons) NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
    3/9/2002 (1-10 kilotons) NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
    8/9/2006 (1-10 kilotons) INDIAN OCEAN
    9/2/2006 (1-10 kilotons) INDIAN OCEAN
    10/2/2006 (1-10 kilotons) ARABIAN SEA
    12/9/2006 (10-20 kilotons) EGYPT
    9/22/2007 (1-10 kilotons) INDIAN OCEAN
    12/26/2007 (1-10 kilotons) SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
    10/7/2008 (1-10 kilotons) SUDAN
    10/8/2009 (>20 kilotons) SOUTH SULAWESI, INDONESIA
    9/3/2010 (10-20 kilotons) SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
    12/25/2010 (1-10 kilotons) TASMAN SEA
    4/22/2012 (1-10 kilotons) CALIFORNIA, USA
    2/15/2013 (>20 kilotons) CHELYABINSK, OBLAST, RUSSIA
    4/21/2013 (1-10 kilotons) SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA
    4/30/2013 (10-20 kilotons) NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN

    yyeeeah, those are technically all between 1-600 kilotons.

    Also, between 1 kiloton and 600 gigatons.

  2. Re:Am I reading this right by MozeeToby · · Score: 4, Informative

    About 3% of the planets land area is considered "urban". Taking into account the oceans that makes for right around 1% of the total surface area of the planet. That means that any given year there's about a 2% chance of an asteroid explosion happening over a major population area. That means a 1/3 chance of a significant (greater than 1 kiloton) explosion over an urban area over a 50 year time span. That's not crazy high, and most of those will occur at high altitudes, but it's certainly not once in 5000 years.

  3. Wrong Number on Little Boy by Shakrai · · Score: 4, Informative

    Little Boy clocked in at ~15 kilotons, not 45 kilotons per TFS. Fat Man was ~21kilotons, though it was dropped off target and ended up doing less damage than Little Boy.

    --
    I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
    We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
  4. Re:Am I reading this right by ThreeKelvin · · Score: 4, Informative

    Your math is off. If your numbers are correct, the risk of having at least one meteor over an urban area during those 50 years is:

    P(N>1) = 1-P(N=0) = 1-(1-0.3*0.03)^100 = 60%