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NRC Human Spaceflight Report Says NASA Strategy Can't Get Humans To Mars

MarkWhittington (1084047) writes 'The National Research Council issued its report on the future of space exploration. The report stated that the "horizon goal" for any program of space exploration in the near term (i.e. the next two decades) is a Mars surface expedition. It also stated that the current NASA program, which includes a mission that would snag an asteroid, put it in lunar orbit, and visit it with astronauts is inadequate to meet that goal.

The report gave two reasons for its critique of the current NASA program. First the asteroid redirect mission would not create and test technologies necessary to conduct a crewed Mars mission. Second, NASA projects essentially flat budgets for the foreseeable future. Any space exploration program worthy of the name will cost considerably more money, with five percent increases in NASA funding for a number of years.'

27 of 206 comments (clear)

  1. Sorry... by Bruce+Perens · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It doesn't work to do this with a democratic government. We need a monarchy :-(

    It seems to me that SpaceX is on the path to a solution that might be affordable by a single administration, though.

    1. Re:Sorry... by The+New+Guy+2.0 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There's no such thing as a Physics Congress... the laws of physics are unrepealable!

    2. Re:Sorry... by savuporo · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So lets see. This is an NRC report that ONLY considered using SLS as the launch vehicle, and concluded that you cannot get to Mars with that, something has to be done differently.

      How about _trying_ something different then for a change, stop trying to build redundant launch vehicles, we already have plenty, and actually invest in enabling technologies that DO get us to Mars.
      Like, putting spacecraft together from modules like was done with ISS and other stations before that - except without involving costly human ops. How about refuelling the spacecraft on orbit. How about doing research on partial-g environments, and launching a centrifuge. How about sending some rats en route to Mars to study different radiation shielding approach effectiveness. The list is endless. Actually, NRC PRODUCED all the enabling technology roadmaps, they are available here :
      http://www.nasa.gov/offices/oc...
      How about actually fricking following these roadmaps ( SLS is NOT in there ) and getting some stuff done ? Advanced radioisotope stirling generator that was outlined as the CRUCIAL enabling technology piece for future exploration ? Cancelled ! Funds are required to build a monster rocket to nowhere instead ...

      But, if you keep doing the same thing over and over, no reason to expect a different result. Kill the waste, and start investing in future.

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    3. Re:Sorry... by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It doesn't work to do this with a democratic government. We need a monarchy :-(

      Well, we're getting close ... one party wants to amend the Constitution so that it can ban the other's speech.

    4. Re:Sorry... by murdocj · · Score: 2

      The Chinese. Right. Because they have rovers on Mars... uh... because they have orbiters around Saturn... uh... because they have probes in interstellar space... uh... because they have space telescopes... uh... because they have a mission to Pluto... uh...

      Try again.

    5. Re:Sorry... by sillybilly · · Score: 2

      Or we need to include NASA in the military budget, and assuming outer space is gonna get divided up into smallscale Star Trek-like micro quadrants (alpha quadrant, beta quadrant) by whoever occupies it first and sticks a flag down with a rotating space station, with some minimum distance rule by these things, so conquest of areas close to Earth as space territories is important if they are more valuable than the ones farther away, even if there is a lot of room up there. But before anything else comes the Moon, and I say whatever country can go up there and stick a flagpole down and "claim it", they can get it as national territory. You could have something like the United States of America, and Puerto Rico and Sectors 3,5,31,15 on the Moon, and quadrants alpha(all), beta 4, gamma 3. But, indeed, such long titles sound better when appended to monarch's names, such as the oldtime Habsburgs, Emperor of Holy Roman Empire, prince of Bohemia, etc., prince of Lunar sectors 3, 5, 31, 15. Once you show new territory to Monarch's, they are greedy and wanna conquer it, should they have enough science and military power to do so.

    6. Re:Sorry... by captainpanic · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Also, they have a central government capable of making big decisions and capable of running large technical projects.
      They may only have a little rover on the Moon, and very few (if any) space probes that are outside the earth's gravity well, but they can totally claim that they can make a decision, and then commit huge efforts to it. Look at their high speed railways. They have overtaken Europe (all of it combined) already.

      If the Chinese are going for it, they really are going for it... unlike Europe or the US where the decisions are taken by a committee, which eventually will reach some lame compromise to do it only for 50% and only within a set of criteria which must support the almighty Economy, because heaven forsake if we ever waste some money - all the while blowing away money on management and bureaucratic inefficiency.

    7. Re:Sorry... by Gothmolly · · Score: 2

      Seriously? SpaceX on the first post? Can we stop fellating Elon Musk for at least 15 minutes?

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  2. Well... by oldhack · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think it's most people's impression that NASA is just going through the motion, making empty noises wrt Mars human exploration. There simply is no viable plan nor adequate budget to come up with a viable plan.

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    1. Re:Well... by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2

      Yeah, at this point, we'll NEVER learn ANYTHING about Mars!

      http://www.space.com/12404-mar...

      Thanks, Obama!

      This is 100% irrelevant to the point that was being made: long ago Obama publicly directed NASA to cease any significant efforts toward manned missions to Mars. (Which was the subject under discussion here: human exploration.)

      Yes, thanks, Obama! Indeed. /sarcasm

  3. Why go to another gravity well? by ubergeek2009 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There's no reason to go to the bottom of another gravity well. We should be travelling to, learn from, and eventually exploit the asteroids. It makes more sense for the long term viability of the human race.

    1. Re:Why go to another gravity well? by CRCulver · · Score: 2

      Why go anywhere else at all? As the pace of technology accelerates, it may well be that the future of the human race is staying put right here, moving into a virtual reality instead of expanding outward through the cosmos. Defense against asteroids could be automated, and while the sun would eventually expand into a red giant and engulf the Earth, we still have a few billion years, so there's no rush.

      It is curious that this possibility is rarely considered in nerd circles, as it has been proposed by science-fiction writers. In his future history starting with Harvest of Stars , the late Poul Anderson foresaw much of the human race and its AI successors content to remain on Earth and turn their attention to mathematical explorations. Vernor Vinge too speculated in his early musings on the Singularity that it could involve a civilization moving into a computer mind buried deep underneath the planet's surface instead of exploring space.

    2. Re:Why go to another gravity well? by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 2

      Don't worry if we wait long enough an asteroid or two will come to us. :)

    3. Re:Why go to another gravity well? by flyingsquid · · Score: 2

      Because we need resources, and we can get those resource from asteroids.

      Let's do the math. Lets say we re can re-equip the Curiosity rover and send it to an asteroid, asteroid 1981 Midas, to mine metal. We luck out, and after scraping off some cometary debris, it turns out that 1981 Midas is SOLID GOLD! Just we assumed it would be, based on the name. The rover then initiates its grizzled 1849 gold prospector protocol and jumps up and down whooping and yelling like crazy. Now it starts mining. How long before it turns a profit, in our scenario- which is at best very unrealistic but doesn't actually violate any laws of physics? The Curiosity rover cost about 2.5 billion dollars. Assuming our prospector rover costs the same, and assuming a gold price of $1250 / pound, it will need to mine two million pounds of gold- a thousand tons, a thousand times its own weight- to break even. That's ignoring the fact that mining metals is far beyond the capabilities of current space probes. That's ignoring that we have no easy way to get a thousand tons of gold back to earth. That's ignoring the fact that 2 million pounds is roughly equivalent to the entire world gold production, so you're going to depress the price and have to mine even more to break even, depressing the price further, putting the price of gold into a downward spiral.

      Even a back-of-the-envelope calculation tells us that to mine anything from space, either (a) the cost of getting things to orbit and moving things through the solar system has to come down by orders of magnitude, (b) the price of the stuff being mined has to be very, very high- we're talking about gold, platinum, or Unobtanium, or (c) both. Anything you want for an asteroid, you can get cheaper right here on earth, because you don't need to travel to space and back. Dig deeper mines. Go to some godforsaken place like Alaska or Afghanistan. Develop undersea mining. And even if some substance, like gold, ever did become scarce on earth, it would be cheaper to develop substitutes or technologies that didn't depend on gold, or to improve recycling of resources, than to go into space for gold. Another way of looking at things: to send something into space requires an expensive machine sitting on top of an expensive rocket, supported by a small army of scientists, technicians, and aerospace contractors. Whatever you bring back has to be more valuable than everything you expended getting there. Right now, there's nothing in the known universe whose economic cost will justify the expense of going out and getting it.

  4. NRC by Fallen+Kell · · Score: 2

    Am I the only one that saw NRC and was wondering why in the world was the Nuclear Regulator Commission talking about human spaceflight?

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  5. Snagging an asteroid is cooler anyway! by Dr.+Spork · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Seriously, forget Mars. It's like Utah, but cold, and even more boring. We know Mars.

    Now, rearranging big chunks of our solar system to get our grubby hand on some sweet sweet platinum, that's the sort of crazy shit that our parents hoped we'd be doing by now. In any case, that's what we should be doing, imo.

  6. Re:Just give the NASA budget to Elon Musk by Kardos · · Score: 2

    SpaceX doesn't have the R&D hurdle that NASA had to achieve LEO. SpaceX first to mars? That seems unlikely. Perhaps if we gave them a sustained budget comparable to mid-60s NASA levels for a couple decades. Or, we could just fund NASA, they are quite competent.

  7. Late-breaking news: PATHWAYS TO VICTORY! by Tackhead · · Score: 4, Funny

    It doesn't work to do this with a democratic government. We need a monarchy :-(

    Or perhaps a font of sage wisdom? You know, like a Council? Composed of wise people, you know, like one's Elders? Something any sentient species ought to be able to figure out. Speaking of which, I feel another press release coming on...

    K'Breel, Speaker for the Council, addresses the publication of the new report thusly:

    "WE HAVE TRIUMPHED! Our skilled operatives from the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Propaganda; Planetary Research Council have successfully infiltrated the blueworlders' technological and informational systems. One notable document, Pathways to Exploration makes clear the disarray in which the blueworlders' long-term invasion plans lie, drawing on the history of meat-controlled spaceflight to justify future programs in organic space exploitation. Although the report promotes the invasion of our world as the horizon goal for the program, it takes into account funding levels necessary to maintain a robust tempo of execution, current research and exploration projects and the time/resources needed to continue them, and intertribal cooperation that would be required to further oppress the citizens of our fair red world."

    "And its conclusion? Although the mechanized threat remains, and we salute those still fighting pitched battles with the two active land-based invaders, Pathways to Exploration makes it clear that it is not possible for the blueworlders' organic-based self-replicators to invade our world, at least not without a sustained commitment to funding at a higher level than their own tribal leaders are currently providing."

    When an intern from the defense engineering board suggested that improving the capabilities of the blueworlders' EDL systems, radshielding, and propulsion and power systems were ultimately matters of engineering and not physics, and could ultimately be addressed if the tribals of the blue world ever get it into their oxygen-addled brains to work together to achieve a common goal (as, the intern suggested, the way any sentient species does), K'Breel had the intern's gelsacs addled by immersing them in a suitably-merciful quantity of liquid oxygen.

    Thus spake K'Breel, Speaker for the Council of Elders, Committee on Native Spaceflight; Arenautics and Defense Engineering Board; Defense Studies Board; Division of Blueworlder Social and Physical Sciences; Committee on Gelsacular Statistics.

  8. Maybe they'll get some traction... by confused+one · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'm glad the National Research Council has published this... maybe now it will get some traction. Having said that, it does not take a rocket scientist to see that the program is underfunded and will not be able to meet any of its goals. Frankly, this is true of not just NASA, but science in general. Too many in Congress talk about the importance of STEM; but, when push comes to shove are unwilling to fund R&D and large scale engineering programs.

  9. Ok, maybe not the whole human ... by Krishnoid · · Score: 2

    Maybe they could just get a donkey to Mars?

  10. Currently there are too many distractions by mrflash818 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I do not think humans will get into expanding our civilization past Earth's atmosphere until there is a single global government. Currently the nation-states divert too many resources against each other (arms, trade wars), that instead could be used into expanding us beyond Earth.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K...

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    1. Re:Currently there are too many distractions by LifesABeach · · Score: 2

      The "Space Race" between the USSR, and USA would be a difinitive choke point to your logic. But a world government would be useful for Parking tickets.

    2. Re:Currently there are too many distractions by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Ah, yes, one world government. Because there isn't nearly enough tyranny on this planet already. Surely, a global government would concentrate resources on space and advancing the cause of humanity instead of large-scale theft for their own tribe and armed response to anyone who disagreed.

      --
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  11. Why should we care? by SoftwareArtist · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Why is sending humans to Mars supposed to be such a great thing? It's incredibly expensive, incredibly dangerous, and doesn't accomplish much of anything useful. Once you've sent them, the next trip will be almost as expensive as the first one.

    I'm much more interested in building up a meaningful, sustainable space program. That means building up an industrial base in space. We need to be able to manufacture things in space out of raw materials that were mined in space. That's the only way that human space travel will ever be economically sustainable. So that asteroid mission sounds like exactly the right approach to be taking.

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  12. Who said we should go to Mars? by fma · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Setting up shop at a Lagrange point is a whole lot more interesting and likely profitable. Unless you really want little green men.

    --
    F=ma
  13. If only ... by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 2

    If only we can divert the amount of money that is allocated to NSA for NASA ...

    If only we do not have so many brainfucks in Washington D.C. ...

    If only ...

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    1. Re:If only ... by Captain+Hook · · Score: 2

      The number of brainfucks in Washington could be turned to our advantage.

      We only need to introduce a single letter typo into a funding bill and for the brainfucks to not notice.

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