Slashdot Mirror
Are US Hybrid Sales Peaking Already?
cartechboy (2660665) writes The Toyota Prius is pretty darn popular, especially in California. One might think that hybrid sales are on the rise as gas prices continue to fluctuate, but it seems hybrid sales in the U.S. might be peaking. Researchers at IHS Automotive found that U.S. hybrid sales haven't kept pace with the rest of the market. In the automotive world, conventional wisdom states that adding a model to a brand or segment will increase sales--but that hasn't happened with hybrids. The number of hybrid offerings has almost doubled from 24 in 2009 to 47 in 2014--but U.S. hybrid sales haven't dramatically increased. In fact, hybrid market share actually declined from 2009 to 2010, and then again from 2013 to 2014. So if consumers aren't buying hybrids, what are they buying? It seems some hybrid early adopters are now switching to plug-in hybrids or electric cars stating that these models are just nicer to drive.
Are they peaking because nobody wants them, or because nobody wants to make them?
The number of new-car buyers is relatively inelastic. What you're seeing is the number of buyers that are willing to pay a premium for a hybrid over a vehicle with a conventional transmission.
Some buyers of hybrids actually want 100% electric cars. The hybrid was settling. Now that there are some 100% electrics, those buyers won't buy another hybrid.
Some buyers can only afford the cheapest car or only want to afford the cheapest car with the most fuel economy, and often that's a subcompact with a small four-cylinder engine and highway differential gearing, and in many instances that car gets as good fuel economy as a hybrid of of the next size-class up.
Lastly, hybrids often are equipped with more options or luxury options, which pushes up the price.
If you want hybrids to sell more, make them cheaper to buy, and sell them based on their fuel economy as the feature, not simply that they're a hybrid. That'll help attract buyers that want to avoid the dreaded "H word", and could get subcompact economy buyers to consider hybrids.
I'd personally like an all-electric, but I don't want a goofy looking car in the process. I want something like a modern Dart or 200 with a full-electric drivertrain, like the setup used in the Fiat 500e. But since Marchionnie doesn't even want to sell the 500e and is only doing so because California's laws require it, I doubt we'll see a Dart-electric or 200e anytime soon.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
Except it means that while the people who were buying hybrids are now buying pure-electric vehicles, the people who weren't buying hybrids, still aren't buying hybrids. That means that the number of people who stopped buying ordinary gas vehicles has peaked.
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
That's what I was thinking. Hybrids often don't get good enough gas mileage to warrant the extra cost. Now with more diesels hitting the market, you can get good mileage and still have good power.
Then there's folks like me who wouldn't be interested in a hybrid, but would jump into an electric car in a heartbeat. What can I say, I like fast cars. And electrics get you efficiency and torque. What's not to like (except charging times)?
"What the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public." -Ray Zalinsky (Tommy Boy)
btw, If you're complaint about the Prius appearance - what's the drag coefficient of your car? Is it as good as my 10 year old Prius? 'Cause that's why it looks like it does - it's part of it's design elegance.
It's also why the Prius would get about 40mpg even if it had no hybrid features. If Toyota sold that car, they'd really corner the market, as it would have a better ROI than the hybrid Prius, and wouldn't have any risk about battery replacement (which isn't always covered by warranty).