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Blueprints For Taming the Climate Crisis

mdsolar sends this story from the NY Times: Here's what your future will look like if we are to have a shot at preventing devastating climate change. Within about 15 years every new car sold in the United States will be electric. ... Up to 60 percent of power might come from nuclear sources. And coal's footprint will shrink drastically, perhaps even disappear from the power supply. This course, created by a team of energy experts, was unveiled on Tuesday in a report for the United Nations (PDF) that explores the technological paths available for the world's 15 main economies to both maintain reasonable rates of growth and cut their carbon emissions enough by 2050 to prevent climatic havoc. It offers a sobering conclusion: We might be able to pull it off. But it will take an overhaul of the way we use energy, and a huge investment in the development and deployment of new energy technologies. Significantly, it calls for an entirely different approach to international diplomacy on the issue of how to combat climate change.

23 of 389 comments (clear)

  1. Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    I look forward to the enlightened, reasonable debate to follow. Please chain down your chairs and pop some popcorn.

    1. Re:Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! by X0563511 · · Score: 3, Informative

      If we didn't rear so many of them, the mess we're in might not be quite as bad as it is.

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    2. Re:Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! by vtcodger · · Score: 3, Insightful

      A reasonable debate between groups of airheads who have not the slightest idea what they are talking about? That'll be interesting.

      Consider that on the one side we have a revealed religion that depends on global climate models that embody all they think they know about climate. The GCMs really do not seem to work. They clearly run way too hot. So that causes a frantic effort to identify what is wrong with the models and fix it? Of course not. The response is to make stuff up, throw excrement, and yell insults at anyone who suggests that maybe there is a need to put a foundation under the "climate science" superstructure.

      And there are skeptics who really don't have a theory of their own other than the obvious, and perhaps trivial contention that climate alarmists are ignorant, ill behaved, whack jobs. Never mind that their own behavior frequently is less than exemplary.

      And neither side seems to have any conception of the problems entailed in delivering an adequate supply of essentials and luxuries to 10 billion human beings later in this century. Much less any willingness to work at developing realistic solutions to the numerous problems that will be encountered. On the one hand we have a bunch of "green" deus ex machina solutions that probably are going to work poorly when they work at all. On the other there is a belief in the improbable theory that God and an unregulated free market will provide abundance for all without any effort or planning.

      Anybody seen any signs of adult behavior in this circus?

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    3. Re:Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Are there really more methane-producing animals than there would be if there were no humans? Cows, buffaloes, deer, any other farting animals?

      Most cow methane is not farted, it is burped. Bison have a similar digestive system to cattle, and produce similar amounts of methane. Deer and goats are browsers rather than grazers, have very different digestive systems, and produce little methane. Cattle and sheep and being bred to burp less, and strains of gut bacteria are also being modified to generate less methane. Food supplements may also help, mostly by encouraging the "right" gut bacteria.

      Quibbling about whether it is our "fault" that animals burp is not really important. If the methane burping/farting can be reduced at reasonable economic cost, then it doesn't really matter how much the bison would have burped.

      Disclaimer: I am a vegetarian, so it is not my fault in any case.

    4. Re:Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! by GiordyS · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Global warming is not hard science. It's based on model predictions which have failed. It has not warmed in 17 years. While CO2 very likely has a heating effect, the models assumed an outrageous climate sensitivity of 3-4 degrees. They are saying that for every degree added by CO2, the earth warms an additional 3-4 degrees because it is hyper-sensitive to CO2. That's complete nonsense, it's unproven, and the latest climate sensitivity estimates are much lower.

      Here I am supporting a solution that you support as well, yet you personally attack me simply because my opinion is different from yours. Such rude behaviour will only diminish your credibility.

    5. Re:Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! by GiordyS · · Score: 4, Informative

      You are misinformed. Here is an article from the journal Nature: "Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation." Scientists are trying to "piece together" an explanation as to why the climate model predictions have failed? This does not sound like settled science to me. Check the data-sets for yourself. It's a plain fact: global surface temperatures show no statistically significant global warming for the last 17 years.

    6. Re:Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Informative
      Jaws was a great movie, however it was just a fucking movie.

      Mosquitoes kill around one million people a year worldwide.
      Domestic dogs kill over 3000 people a year worldwide (over 50,000 if you count rabies).
      A kick to the head by a cow or horse kills about 40 people a year in the US alone.
      ALL species of sharks combined have killed an average of 4.2 people a year worldwide over the last decade.

      Too bad they didn't feed the sharks consservtionist[sic] brains.

      Too bad you feed your brain with fear rather than facts.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    7. Re:Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Precisely! The cow fart thing has been deliberately overblown by vested interests (ie: evil environmentalists want to take away your hamburger!!!!). The fact of the matter is that today's cow fart is tomorrow's cow food. Of course if we could stop cows farting and burping we could reduce our overall impact on climate but the real climate related problem not just with with cows but with agriculture in general is land use, ie: flattening forests and scrub land, draining wetlands, etc, to make way for pasture, shrimp farms, etc.

      At the end of the day there aren't too many cows or pigs on the planet, there are too many people. However according to said vested interests uttering the simple fact that overpopulation is the root cause of the current environmental collapse somehow means that I want to start exterminating humans en-mass? - Not at all, I just happen to be concerned that collectively we appear to be behaving with all the forethought of a jar of fermenting yeast and as a consequence my three grand kids may suffer the same fate if we fail to reverse that trend.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  2. I live in Montana. I'm looking forward to it. by vinn · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I live in Montana and I'm rather looking forward to global warming. This place is gonna be even more amazing when it gets warmer. I might even have to buy a summer home in the Yukon.

    On a slightly more serious note, as Winston Churchill once said, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."

    --
    ----- obSig
    1. Re:I live in Montana. I'm looking forward to it. by i+kan+reed · · Score: 3, Informative

      Citing a proven liar, ex TV weatherman's (who has less formal meteorological education than I have) wordpress blog.

      Just saying. Oh, and paid shill. Let's not forget that he gets paid money to maintain a specific position.

    2. Re:I live in Montana. I'm looking forward to it. by i+kan+reed · · Score: 5, Informative

      Why does this guy have so many dedicated fans?

      You're the guys who have this whole fictionalized "al gore obsession" where you pretend there's a cult of personality. You don't actually need to have one over Watt. He's just one shithead. Let it go.

      Here's your Liar cite promised that a new examination was neutral and he'd base his views on that.

      Immediately rejected it when it showed the scientific consensus. He's a liar. Established.

      Shilling established

      Now will you PLEASE stop defending this scum?

    3. Re:I live in Montana. I'm looking forward to it. by geekoid · · Score: 5, Informative

      that website has been debunked with scioence so many time, it's not even funny anymore. He doesn't even know what a 'log' is, mathematically speaking.

      paid shill:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A...

      The Heartland Institute published Watts' preliminary report on weather station data, titled Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?.[12] Watts has been featured as a speaker at Heartland Institute's International Conference on Climate Change, for which he acknowledges receiving payment.[55]

      bottom line: His science is wrong, he misrepresents data so bad I don't think he really understand it. He never offers any data to show that the science behind AGW(which leads to GCC) is wrong.

      IT's pretty simple science; which is why you never here anyone talk about actual science,. but create nonsense, ad homs and cherry pick.

      You want to look at the industry that makes the most money from spreading denier lies? it would be the media.
      The media makes a shit ton of money off this false debate.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    4. Re:I live in Montana. I'm looking forward to it. by KeensMustard · · Score: 3, Informative

      Why does this guy have so many dedicated fans?

      The reason is there is virtually no-one else. Judith Curry, albeit better trained, is just a rhetorical shell over a person who actually thinks the climate is warming, she's useless to that cause. Roy Spencer is under a cloud (after the 'lensing' incident), Monkton is a clown , Richard Muller changed his mind and now accepts the consensus opinion, as (to a large extent) has Bjorn Lomberg.

      Only the weatherman blogger fights on, bravely upheld by his salary from the Heartland institute.

  3. Or by sexconker · · Score: 3, Insightful

    How about we just use nuclear power for most cases because it's more efficient, safer, etc.?
    How about we just use electric cars for most cases because they're simpler, more efficient, etc.?
    How about we just stop using coal because it's fucking terrible all around?

    Why do we need a climate change bullshit bogey man to get politicians to stop blocking natural progress?

    1. Re:Or by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You mean 'falsifiable': when a scientist publishes a hypothesis, the standard procedure is to describe what observations might support that hypothesis and which could call it into question.

      Climate deniers claim: I can't prove it's false, so it's not falsifiable. Ergo it's not science.

      --
      Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
  4. Re:DGW Dinsaurogenic Global Warming - crisis of ti by i+kan+reed · · Score: 5, Informative

    Did you bother to note the rather important fact that none of our modern crop foods were alive during that time period. Adaptation of plant and animal life to major geologic changes doesn't happen in a century.

    The problem we face isn't one of extinction of life on earth, but the inviability of meta-stable ecosystems we and our economies rely on.

  5. Cellphones and laptops will save us all. by gurps_npc · · Score: 3, Informative
    The real problem is not energy generation, but energy storage. So research into better batteries (mainly fuels by laptops and cellphones) can save us.

    Because the real benefit of the fossil fuels is the high density of the stored energy.

    Give me the technology to build a battery that can power an electric car for 500 miles, and ...

    Electric cars can now work for 99% of the population - all running on power they store overnight/while at work.

    Solar can now store enough to last not only through the night but also through a cloudy day.

    Wind based energies can now store enough to get through some calm days

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
  6. Re:DGW Dinsaurogenic Global Warming - crisis of ti by i+kan+reed · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Let's just pretend for a moment the answer to that question isn't yes

    That wasn't even the point being made. It's the temperatures that are the threat to modern forms of plant, not CO2 concentration. Any farmer will tell you about the importance of climate to growing a particular crop.

  7. As someone who is hoping for nuclear power ... by jphamlore · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Fifteen years for a dramatic ramp-up of nuclear power anywhere outside of China?! Not possible. I believe the United States long ago lost the ability to manufacture key components to even make a nuclear reactor and its containment vessel.

  8. Need to make SIMPLE changes. by WindBourne · · Score: 3, Insightful

    We need to do several things in the US to help ourselves, as well as push other nations.
    We would be better off stopping subsidies on solar, and allow wind to expire in 2 years. Instead, we should now focus those subsidies on nuclear power (our own), along with electricity storage.
    Then require that all new construction below 5-6 stories will have on-site AE that will equal or exceed its HVAC usage.

    In addition, we need to put a tax on all consumed goods (including those shipped from overseas), based on the MAX CO2 that went into make it. The tax should start low and raise every 6-12 months. This will give time to all nations and states to make long-term choices.
    Basically, the tax is applied to all goods, unless you register where it and its parts come from. Then if you get the parts from nations/states where the CO2 is lowest, you get lower taxes.
    To make sure of the CO2, rather than the wild estimates that we have, we use the OCO2 which will show emissions production, along with movement, around the world.
    Finally, to normalize it, we use $ GDP / tonne of CO2. The higher the $GDP, the better.

    The above is all that is needed to force us to change, and give us time. Not just America, but all nations since America is the world's largest importer.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  9. Germany gets 2.3% by raymorris · · Score: 3, Informative

    Germany gets 2.3% of it's power from solar electric.

    Not even for a moment did they get half their power from solar. The headline was wrong/,misleading times two.
    More like 6%, unfortunately. That's nice and all, that when the sun is shining really bright, for five minutes you can get a significant amount of power from solar.

    Then, within three hours, it's no longer 10AM-2PM and solar energy drops dramatically. (Our eyes see brightness roughly on a logarithmic scale, so what we perceive to be not quite as bright as bright is actually 90% less energy). For example, the moon looks to be maybe 5% as bright as the sun. Actually, the sun is 400,000 times brighter.

    So yeah, solar is a great way to REDUCE the demand on your base sources during lunch time. Kind of like regenerative braking REDUCES the demand on the engine. Neither is, or ever can be, a primary energy source.

  10. wrong. by geekoid · · Score: 5, Insightful

    the longer we wait, the more expensive it becomes.
    If energy complains and religious fundies where pushing a false debate with lies, we would have been making small changes for 20 years.

    Switching to cleaner technologies will not bankrupt America, don't be stupid.

    China and India are also putting money into clean energies.

    IF America would stop listening to denier and start a big project, it would BOOST our economy, and drive new technologies developed by american companies.
    Remember, big project do not literally burn money. Changing the grid to something 21st century? Yeah, that would cost a lot/. which goes to American workers, who then buy things and everyone pays taxes. The circle continues.

    Spending money to develop small Solar furnace project, say 5MW, on farms mean workers making money cheaper at cleaner energy.

    spending the billions on have a 10K sqr miles solar farm moves money through the economy, provides cleaner energy.

    The idea the moving to cleaner energy will bankrupt America is complete nonsense.

    If 8 years ago people actually starting being rational about the science and started actining, the burst bubble would have had a much SMALLER impact.

    It's funny., developing a pipeline the will provide a 100 jobs for a short time is good for the economy, but switching to a clean energy that will create many thousands of long term jobs is some how bad for the economy.

    And this doesn't even get into the fact that it means less dependence on other countries.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  11. Re:One simple rule ... by mdsolar · · Score: 3, Informative

    There is an omission in the summary, that is a build out by 2050. But, their fig. 8 does have substantially more nuclear power in 2020 than in 2010 and that seems quite unrealistic.