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Amazon's Ambitious Bets Pile Up, and Its Losses Swell

New submitter shirleymarone sends word that investors are becoming impatient with Amazon's willingness to absorb short-term losses for theoretical long-term gains. The company brought in over $19 billion in revenue last quarter, but reported a net loss of $126 million. The company warned of even greater losses this quarter. Amazon officials exude a serene if vague confidence. "We're not trying to optimize for short-term profits," Thomas J. Szkutak, the chief financial officer, said in a conference call. "We're investing on behalf of customers and share owners," he said. "We're fortunate to have these opportunities." But even the analysts, who are generally enthusiastic about the company and its global ambitions, are asking slightly more pointed questions these days. For all these investments, one analyst asked Mr. Szkutak, why are sales not increasing even faster? His answer: Just wait. ... Amazon, which is based in Seattle, long ago transcended its roots as a simple retailer. In recent weeks it introduced Zocalo, a document storage and sharing service that grew out of its fast-growing web services division. It began a program to allow readers to consume as many e-books as they want for a set monthly fee. And it is starting to ship its long-awaited entry in the smartphone sweepstakes. The phone, the result of years of development by thousands of Amazon programmers and designers, is meeting some resistance from reviewers.

46 of 168 comments (clear)

  1. surpising by LduN · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Wow look at that... a company that (at least a little bit) cares about the customers at the end, not penny-pinching to make investors happy (for now).

    1. Re:surpising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Wow look at that... a company that (at least a little bit) cares about the customers at the end, not penny-pinching to make greedy short-term investors happy (for now).

      FTFY

      Many of us investors do prefer to hold stock in companies that look like they're going to be around for a long, long time.

    2. Re:surpising by wisnoskij · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Umm... Well, to be clear. They are spending money to develop an iron grip on the industry in the long run. They are willing to lose money, not to be fair to customers, but to develope possibly the strongest monopoly that every has existed, and if left up to Amazon ever will exist.

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    3. Re:surpising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Amazon will only seem to care about customers until they drive out all competitors. Then they will act like any other monopoly does.

    4. Re:surpising by Raven42rac · · Score: 4, Insightful

      They've been doing this for close to 20 years, you think that would be plenty of time to actually make money.

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    5. Re:surpising by segedunum · · Score: 4, Interesting

      They don't care about customers. Not making a profit is a ruse that many companies pull to avoid tax and be creative with accounting.

    6. Re:surpising by Charliemopps · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They've been doing this for close to 20 years, you think that would be plenty of time to actually make money.

      This is the internet... Hype = Profit

    7. Re:surpising by msauve · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They are making money, just not by selling goods and services - if you bought AMZN back in 1998, you'd have a greater than 6400% profit now.

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    8. Re:surpising by TheLink · · Score: 2

      If it was Japan, China etc doing the same thing they'd be charged with "dumping": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

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    9. Re:surpising by afidel · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Lol, they're less than 1.7% of the retail market, a quarter the size of Walmart and only twice the size of the flailing Sears. Heck, as a percentage of the market they're significantly smaller than the old Sears catalog business used to be.

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    10. Re: surpising by Karlt1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Amazon went public in 1997. How long do long term investors have to wait for consistent profitability?

    11. Re:surpising by MozeeToby · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's nice. Now for a thought. Let's imagine Amazon runs a script and raises all their prices, every single one of them, by 1% Would anyone notice? Would anyone care? Is 1% even enough to justify looking elsewhere for a product? They'd still be cheapest on 90% of things, why would anyone bother?

      Guess what, they just boosted their profits by $700,000,000. Ok, lets say some people do shop elsewhere, so call it $600,000,000. Not just their revenues, their actual profits. And investors are running away

    12. Re:surpising by trepanne · · Score: 2

      Yes, this.

      AMZN's game plan is to transform retail by exploiting network effects, economies of scale, lower cost structure, and the ability to shunt costs off to others. They're investing heavily to create a dominating position that will be unassailable by new etrants - see Warren Buffett's comments about economic moats.

      They are deliberately running their operations close to break-even from an accrual accounting point of view... their $126M loss sounds large, but it's not very material given their $20B of revenue over the same period. These losses (from low prices) are a crucial part of killing competition and transforming the retail ecosystem permanently. Instead they're focused on keeping enough positive cash flow that they generate enough internal funding to fuel their strategy without continuing to raise significant funding from sales of equity or debt. You need to focus on AMZN's statements of cash flow

      2014q2 operating cash flow was $862M - seven times the "swelling losses" making headlines. This didn't quite fund their purchases of property/plant/equipment which were $1,290M... but these kinds of cash sources & uses can be quite lumpy over the course of a single quarter; they maintain a very healthy warchest in corporate treasury as a shock absorber.

      That's the game plan. Bezos is very good at it. The investors are on board... foregoing the bird in the hand to reap many more birds from the bush in the feature is what investing is all about.

      I have no interest in owning the stock, but that's what those who do are looking at.

    13. Re:surpising by Salgat · · Score: 2

      You don't need a profit to benefit your investors. As long as your company grows in value, all those who own a share in the company see their own value also increase. Amazon is likely only around because of their long term strategy, which has afforded them the ability to remain relevant through fast shipping, large selection, and their media presence.

    14. Re:surpising by bigpat · · Score: 2

      They don't care about customers. Not making a profit is a ruse that many companies pull to avoid tax and be creative with accounting.

      Bingo! I was looking to see if anyone else made this comment. As long as Amazon isn't just adding fat to the organization, but is actually reinvesting in growth which will otherwise be profitable, then not making a taxable profit is the best thing an American company could do with its money. Especially if they expect corporate tax relief in the future.

    15. Re:surpising by LordLimecat · · Score: 2

      How are they going to make the strongest monopoly ever? More stores than ever before are online now. I can literally order everything I need and have it shipped to me, and never touch amazon. Lowes, Giant Foods, clothing stores, Ali Baba, Ebay, all have online stores.

      The barrier to entry is so absurdly low that I dont think anyone needs to worry about Amazon's monopoly, at least in the shopping sector.

      And the barrier to entry for cloud services is pretty low too-- all you need is space at a datacenter (which can be had for relatively cheap) and you can offer a cloud platform.

    16. Re:surpising by istartedi · · Score: 3, Funny

      And the farmer cares about his pigs so he doesn't butcher them until they get nice and fat.

      Honey, don't log on. That copy of To Serve Man just arrived. It's a cookbook!

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    17. Re: surpising by Frobnicator · · Score: 5, Interesting

      How long do long term investors have to wait for consistent profitability?

      Math time... $126M loss / $19B revenue = 0.66%, less than one percent loss for a quarter. The company is worth about $140B, so the quarter's drop is less than a tenth of a percent, meaning absorbing a the loss is a tiny decrease in a large bucket. In contrast, the skittish investors yesterday cost the company about $12B compared to the $126M business loss. The skittish investors who cause huge overnight drops like this create opportunities.

      We're not talking about a company that is hemorrhaging money. It isn't a company plagued by mismanagement. It is a company that since their first day built a track record of tinkering with models. That is all Amazon has ever done. They have the resources to continue operating when they discover unprofitable ones. It takes money to make money, and many tests and changes cost time and money. Yes, some investors refuse to see the long term and demand a profit every single quarter. Other investors see this as an opportunity to buy or to hold.

      Last night they took a 10% drop because short-term investors are skittish. Today you can buy it at a 10% discount; so thanks skittish investors!

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    18. Re:surpising by Alomex · · Score: 2

      Let's imagine Amazon runs a script and raises all their prices, every single one of them, by 1% Would anyone notice? Would anyone care?

      Yes, as every one with retailing experience can tell you it's a cutthroat business with profit margins in the 1-3% range, so a 1% change is huge.

  2. Avoiding Amazon Web Services? by FearTheDonut · · Score: 3, Interesting

    As a software engineer who is often asked to consider "the cloud," at what point should things like poor company performance impact software design decisions? It's easy to say not to use the cloud, but the cost savings for some make it irresistible. I suppose at some point AWS might go away due to a CEO change, corporate shift, etc., but I have a feeling that, with all of the consumer services using AWS, it will be considered "too big to fail," and be required to stay up (and, therefore, I won't have any reason to consider AMZN's performance as a software design concern.


    Anyone have thoughts on this?

    1. Re:Avoiding Amazon Web Services? by FearTheDonut · · Score: 5, Funny

      Besides poor punctuation, missing end parenthesis, and way too many commas.

    2. Re:Avoiding Amazon Web Services? by netsavior · · Score: 2

      In my opinion AWS is the most mature and the most flexible of the "big enough to matter" cloud providers. I don't foresee them stopping this service any time soon, but if they did, the chances that some other provider would provide a "turnkey" migration from AWZ to their service are very very good.

      Not much will need to be changed if you use some other provider...

      Just wrap the hell out of your S3 specific code for when thee next trend in "CEO Beat" magazine is "Self Hosting - How to cut your cloud budget to zero!"

    3. Re:Avoiding Amazon Web Services? by FearTheDonut · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Great. I get marked a "Troll" for trolling my own post..

    4. Re:Avoiding Amazon Web Services? by afidel · · Score: 2

      AWS started as a way to gain revenue from the spare capacity they had for cyber monday, but it's now ~200x the size of Amazon's actual needs and is its own revenue and profit center. If a new CEO wanted to at this point he could spin it off into a separate company with contracts to host services for Amazon. I'm honestly not sure what it would gain you other than access to a pile of capital to use elsewhere, but for the time being Amazon doesn't seem to be hurting for access to capital.

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    5. Re:Avoiding Amazon Web Services? by mlts · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I think AWS is the primary brand for cloud services, with Azure right on its heels, then other providers (Rackspace, etc.)

      Amazon has some unique services that nobody else has. Glacier comes to mind for long term storage [1]. There are other services they provide which can be useful.

      Amazon is not going anywhere... the shareholders may be unhappy right now... but it isn't like Amazon's market is drying up anytime soon. They are the only big company which can fight Wal-Mart and win on price alone. [2] If Amazon so chose, they could actually wage a battle on every front Apple is making money on, and actually make headway. Very few companies can do this.

      Even if Amazon "failed", the cloud part would be spun off to a different entity. If not, because of all the critical data on AWS... Amazon almost certainly would receive a bailout, just like the car makers did.

      [1]: Glacier is not going to replace a normal offsite volume anytime soon. The cost for uploading and storing is very reasonable. However, you do pay for accessing the data. If you use this for backups (I use it as the media of absolute last resort), it can be a useful tool.

      [2]: This isn't a good thing with the race to the bottom, but a notable point.

    6. Re:Avoiding Amazon Web Services? by sootman · · Score: 2

      Could have used a <strong> tag that was never closed and some its/it's confusion. Maybe an apostrophe before the "s" at the end of a plural noun. Otherwise, solid post. Would read again.

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  3. Re:This is how business should be done by FearTheDonut · · Score: 2

    Yes, I agree with this. But, at some point, investors need to get a return on their investment: it's what they asked for and it is required by law. The have never paid a dividend (as far as I can tell), and so their stock price is the only real way to get a return on the investment. At what point does "avoiding short-term profits for long term gains" become a losing bet? When does "long term" happen? That's what investors want to know.

  4. .7% by wisnoskij · · Score: 4, Insightful

    That is not a loss, that is breaking even.

    Yes, between the profits that they could be making, and them breaking even, they are "losing" money in some senses. But in terms of real world "losses" , they are not swelling or piling up, they are just spending their money as fast as it is coming in; And at the end of the year breaking even (within a percentage of a 1 percent).

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    1. Re:.7% by west · · Score: 2

      Given the opportunity cost of the money an investor spent on buying Amazon stock, it's pretty much effectively a loss.

      Heaven help Amazon if its investors ever start demanding actual market returns. Luckily, it may never happen. By now, every investor has got to realize that Amazon's profits will never justify their stock price. Yell that the profits aren't high enough, and all you're doing is yelling that "the Emperor has no clothes", when you're invested in the Emperor.

      Far better to praise Amazon's moves and sell it even higher to the next investor.

    2. Re:.7% by macromorgan · · Score: 2

      Breaking even for them is more along the lines of a 7% profit. Anything below that is a loss. If Amazon makes 0.7% profit investing in itself or makes 7% investing in the market in general (like an S&P 500 index fund which averages year to year around 7%), 0.7% represents a loss of 6.3% not a profit of 0.7%.

  5. I will invest in that. by tekrat · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Any company willing to tell it's investors "screw you", because they are looking long-term instead of focusing only on quarterly gains, that's a company I'm willing to invest in.

    It's a sad state of affairs in the USA that almost every public company, without question only looks as far as their next quarterly report, and no further down the road. This is why all these businesses are run by idiots that can't even tell you what their company even *does*, because they are so focused on manipulating the stock price and their personal bonuses.

    One reason the Japanese kicked our asses in the 1980's is that they were looking at 10-year plans while the USA looked only to the next quarter. Now the Chinese are doing the same, with long-term strategies, and we continue to have not learned our lessons.

    So, if Amazon is looking long-term, then they are better managed than 99% of USA businesses. That's a company I can believe in. And I'll invest in that.

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    1. Re:I will invest in that. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Considering Amazon has had maybe 5 profitable quarters in 20 years, I'd say they most definitely aren't looking long term. Amazon is a skunk, always has been. People like you are just too fucking stupid to realize it and hand your money over to the clown Bezos.

    2. Re:I will invest in that. by Sockatume · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Twenty years without turning a meaningful profit isn't a clever part of a long-term strategy, it's an entire ongoing business model. Even if Amazon wanted to turn the switch and start making money hand over fist somehow, it would take them decades to transform the kind of business they're in.

      Amazon, as it exists now, will never be a wise investment.

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    3. Re:I will invest in that. by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 2

      But amazon has been telling "screw you" to investors ever since it went public in 1998. How long is their long term plan? The only reason investors are tolerating this is because the stock price has gone up as apparently there is no shortage of people who think that huge profits are just around the corner.

      It's not quite that simple - there are profits at Amazon - they are just in certain divisions that are then funding the money-losing divisions.

      Amazon takes a profitable business (remember when they sold BOOKS?) and makes it profitable, but takes those profits to invest in something crazy (like NOT BOOKS, or Kindle, or Prime) and then those divisions get profitable and the cycle repeats.

      If Amazon ever wanted to stop growing as a company it could kill off the non-profitable divisions and show a dividend in short order. This is why the stock has value. Perhaps too much, but the entire market is in a bubble, so it's hard to dice which part of the stock price is which. In some ways stock prices are relative with an absurd floor.

      Investors who have no appetite for such companies can - :gasp: - invest in other companies.

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    4. Re:I will invest in that. by alexander_686 · · Score: 2

      One reason the Japanese kicked our asses in the 1980's is that they were looking at 10-year plans ...

      It is also one of the reasons why Japan has stagnated for the past 15 years. They kept plowing profits back into failing "zombie" companies. Japan would have been much better if they had returned some of their profits to their investors so the investors could invest in the next new shinning thing. Instead the Japanese conglomerates kept everything to themselves. One could argue that South Korea's chaebol are worse.

      The answer, of course, is about balance.

  6. Bullshit by sociocapitalist · · Score: 2

    These almost certainly aren't real loses, just tax loses. The profits have all just been shifted offshore as the big multinationals do now.

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  7. surpising by slashdice · · Score: 5, Interesting

    And the farmer cares about his pigs so he doesn't butcher them until they get nice and fat.

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  8. Re:I'm doing my best to keep them afloat by CrankyFool · · Score: 5, Funny

    Probably because, we expect, that Slashdot readers are generally comfortable enough with elementary math to be able to either multiply $1300 by 3 ($3900) or 4 ($5200), or has easy access to a calculator.

  9. Re:This is how business should be done by wisnoskij · · Score: 2

    Yes, and stock price is not cemented to profits.... Stock climbs as the influence of the company climbs. FB is a famous company that never made any profits, or even showed any ability to ever produce profits, that still had a tremendously good stock evolution. Or you could just look at Amazon's Stock Price, to see that it has been climbing and climbing and climbing, making their investors money (over the last 4 years alone it has gone up to 5 times its starting value).

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  10. 23% revenue growth! by timeOday · · Score: 5, Informative

    Amazon's revenue grew 23% over the same quarter last year. If the company were not growing AND not profiting, that would be bad. But as large as Amazon's revenues now are, to still be growing that fast is very impressive, and proves they could start taking profits at any moment simply by pocketing more revenue instead of re-investing.

    1. Re:23% revenue growth! by Typical+Slashdotter · · Score: 2

      ...they could start taking profits at any moment simply by pocketing more revenue instead of re-investing.

      Accounting tip: infrastructure investment doesn't show up in a profit and loss statement. It is only relevant for cash flow, and I don't think anyone accuses Amazon of managing cash poorly. Amazon isn't profitable because their sale prices are so close to the costs of the goods they sell. They can't stop any of these losses because they can't sell anything without first buying it from someone else. The only ways for them to increase profitability of their retail business are to raise prices (which they can maybe do) or to cut their costs for each item (which are probably pretty close to as low as possible already).

    2. Re:23% revenue growth! by timeOday · · Score: 2
      I would like to understand this. The article says that losses for the next quarter are expected to be larger: "Mr. Szkutak listed some of the reasons: Amazon Web Services is in a price-cutting war with Google and others. Six new warehouses have opened. And the company will spend $100 million on new content to put on those phones and Kindles."

      The warehouses, at least, are quintessential infrastructure investment. You are saying Szkutak is incorrect in asserting they cut into short-term profits?

    3. Re:23% revenue growth! by jbengt · · Score: 2

      Accounting tip: infrastructure investment doesn't show up in a profit and loss statement.

      Actually it does show up there, but it's amortized over several years/decades.

  11. Re:I'm doing my best to keep them afloat by wisnoskij · · Score: 2

    Actually it was referring to the reason behind purchasing 1300 ebooks.

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  12. Re:I'm doing my best to keep them afloat by dohnut · · Score: 2

    “I was in Nashville, Tennessee last year. After the show I went to a Waffle House. I'm not proud of it, I was hungry. And I'm alone, I'm eating and I'm reading a book, right? Waitress walks over to me: 'Hey, whatcha readin' for?' Isn't that the weirdest fuckin' question you've ever heard? Not what am I reading, but what am I reading FOR? Well, goddamnit, ya stumped me! Why do I read? Well . . . hmmm...I dunno...I guess I read for a lot of reasons and the main one is so I don't end up being a fuckin' waffle waitress.” -- Bill Hicks

    But seriously, why? Why buy from Amazon or why buy at all (i.e. pirate)? Or is it why buy 1300 books? I know several people that can easily read an entire (200-300 page) book in just a few hours. One of them reads at least one book per day -- this is in addition to having a life. I'll never read 1300 books but they will have no problem doing it.

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    Stupider like a fox! - H.S.
  13. Re:No... by alexander_686 · · Score: 2

    Amazon has been booking profits since 2002.

    The issue is that Amazon's return on investments has been low, lower than the S&P 500 as a whole. They have been pursing market share instead of short term profits. They have been investing in new risky business areas. Stockholders currently share Bezos's bullish predictions that short term sacrifice is worth the risky long game. It has worked for Berkshire Hathaway but not so well for Sony. At some point it is going to need to become a more normal company.