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Finland's Nuclear Plant Start Delayed Again

mdsolar writes with news about further delays to Finland's Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor. "Areva-Siemens, the consortium building Finland's biggest nuclear reactor, said on Monday the start date of the much delayed project will be pushed back to late 2018 — almost a decade later than originally planned. Areva-Siemens blamed disagreements with its client Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) over the plant's automation system, the latest blow for a project that has been hit by repeated delays, soaring costs and disputes. "The delays are because the planning of the plant has taken needlessly long," Jouni Silvennoinen, TVO's project head, told Reuters on Monday. "We haven't examined the supplier's detailed schedules yet, but our preliminary view is that we could do better (than 2018)."

130 comments

  1. Oh dear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    It'll never be finnished.

    1. Re:Oh dear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, we Finns have never heard that joke before. Never!

    2. Re:Oh dear by 6Yankee · · Score: 1

      I use that one all the time. If you have a problem with that, you can Suomi.

    3. Re:Oh dear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It'll be finnished one day. But what Areva didn't expect when they signed the delivery deal, was the amount of scrutiny from Finnish nuclear regulatory officials.

      There has been countless construction errors made during the construction of the nuclear plant and fixing them to meet the tight standards has cost Areva big time.

    4. Re:Oh dear by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > But what Areva didn't expect when they signed the delivery deal, was
      > the amount of scrutiny from Finnish nuclear regulatory officials.
      [snip]
      > There has been countless construction errors made during the construction

      So you're saying it's being delayed because they were *caught*.

      Oh, that instils great confidence.

    5. Re:Oh dear by GeekWithAKnife · · Score: 1


      *looks up at you*

      Everything that has a beginning, has an end.

      *Looks back down*

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    6. Re:Oh dear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Oh, that instils great confidence."

      Depends on the "errors", if they're cutting corners the definitely should be forced to fix them. However I have seen (at least in residential/commercial) some inspectors who will fail people on the most innocuous things, I doubt it is much different for nuclear. If they're being failed for a lack of an emergency release valve on a high pressure line or an emergency lighting system with no backup power great, if they're being failed for having a model 493A door nob on an emergency exit instead of a model 493C then that's different.

    7. Re:Oh dear by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > if they're being failed for having a model 493A door nob on an emergency exit instead of a model 493C then that's different.

      No, you're wrong. It is precisely this sort of thing that causes airliners to crash. Someone puts on knob 493A because it looks just like knob 493C and it works just fine. And it continues to until routine maintenance comes up. So that person, who has no idea the part was changed, uses maintenance procedure A on knob B, because there's no way it could be a 493A. And then the aircraft falls out of the sky.

      All complex machines are like this, you use the specified parts, or you don't build it.

    8. Re:Oh dear by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      You don't know what you are talking about. Anything that's a safety issue should be a part of the specification and would reject a part that is unsafe. The real truth is that the two parts are probably absolutely identical except for some trivial detail. It is a terrible example anyway, the nuclear regulators are notoriously bureaucratic and a lot of these 'safety' issues are likely to be purely paper trails. People who haven't come across EU bureaucracy have no idea, a document I came across last year - a 400 page specification on how to fill in a form written in labyrinthine legalese, with 20 pages just on boasting on how they have improved the simplicity of the paperwork verses the previous version. And that was for something a lot simpler than nuclear regulation.

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  2. Indeed... by courcoul · · Score: 1

    Unless it is a fast breeder or similar that can "burn" plutonium, by the time they get around to getting the fuel, there won't be much uranium left on sale, or suppliers willing to sell it.

    1. Re:Indeed... by dbIII · · Score: 3, Informative

      While civilian nuclear has been in decline over the past few decades there's not likely to be any shortage of suppliers of uranium. In one large mine for example, Roxby Downs, it's really just a side product of copper, silver and gold which would be mined anyway if there wasn't uranium in that ore.

    2. Re:Indeed... by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Unless it is a fast breeder or similar that can "burn" plutonium, by the time they get around to getting the fuel, there won't be much uranium left on sale, or suppliers willing to sell it.

      There is a glut of uranium on the market, with prices for yellowcake falling by more than 50% since Fukushima.

    3. Re:Indeed... by vux984 · · Score: 1

      Yes. A glut of unranium putting uranium producers out of business, closing mines, etc. The glut today may well lead to a shortage a few years out from now.

    4. Re:Indeed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unless it is a fast breeder or similar that can "burn" plutonium, by the time they get around to getting the fuel, there won't be much uranium left on sale, or suppliers willing to sell it.

      Huh? Fenno-Scandinavia have huge amounts of uranium in the ground, to the extent that the background radiation there is three times that of most other places.
      There haven't been a need to mine the uranium and once the Chernobyl incident happened it put a stop to any plans to start mining. (There still are a few defunct mines from more than a century ago when uranium was used in glass for decorative purposes.)
      If Finland really needs uranium they can just dig it up. Heck, if they might even be able to extract enough uranium from the drinking water to power the nation.
      Ironically the radioactive materials aren't filtered from the water since you would then end up with concentrated radioactive material that is legally problematic to handle.

    5. Re:Indeed... by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Informative

      Yes. A glut of unranium putting uranium producers out of business, closing mines, etc. The glut today may well lead to a shortage a few years out from now.

      No, because as soon as prices recover, the mines will reopen. There is enough uranium stockpiled to cover the transition. If prices ever go back to where they were in 2010, it will be cost effective to extract uranium from seawater, where the supply is almost limitless. At current consumption rates, we will not run out of relatively cheap uranium for thousands of years. There are plenty of reasonable arguments against nuclear energy, but "we are running out of fuel" is not one of them.

    6. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      This is quite not true. Resource availability is largely dictated by the price you're willing to pay for it - in typical scenarios a doubling of the price expands viable resources 10-fold. Moreover, even today's reactors are "breeders" in a sense, they just don't make 100% of their fuel (breeding ratio is typically somewhere around 0.3). There are some quite interesting businesses working towards "converter" or "burner" molten-salt reactors based on a combined thorium/uranium cycle which trades the breeding ratio for a massively simplified core design, single-fluid approach (plumbing problem gone), no need for in-line salt reprocessing (no more complex in-situ nuclear chemistry) and much better proliferation resistance (since it's running on LEU with no Pa separation). It also maintains the most attractive aspects of molten-salt, such as very high burnup, high temperature, a compact core, full passive safety, FP off-gassing and no need for fuel fabrication. You do need to periodically add in some 20% LEU fissile makeup to compensate for the '< 1' breeding ratio (<5% LEU when running with no Thorium), but it's still about 6x less than conventional light-water and the simplifications in the design are enormous. The design's main proponent, David LeBlanc, estimates that such a reactor would have fuel costs on the order of $0.1c/kWh and that even if the price of Uranium rose to $500/kg (4-5x what it's now), it'd still only be $0.2c/kWh and at that price we'd have essentially unlimited Uranium supplies (the world's oceans contain thousands upon thousands of years worth of Uranium recoverable at only $300-$400/kg).

    7. Re:Indeed... by aliquis · · Score: 1

      .. and if we do we can run on thorium for .. longer.

    8. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      be cost effective to extract uranium from seawater,

      Two things about that. #1 It is horribly expensive at over 15 to 30x the cost of current uranium. #2 The extraction process requires absurd amounts of oil based 'net' to extract the atoms of uranium.

      Nuclear is already an expensive method of electricity production. Saying that this method of extraction is 'cost effective' is highly misleading. in 2010 Uranium prices spiked, the ocean extraction process would still have been over 7 times more expensive, not to mention there are only prototypes and estimates of cost at this point. Some of the estimates have put the cost of extraction at well over 100x current uranium cost.

      The most advanced materials, which can be reused several times, can draw between three and four milligrams of uranium per gram of plastic each time theyâ(TM)re used, says Costas Tsouris, a researcher at Oak Ridge National Laboratory who is working on that system.

      http://www.technologyreview.co...

      Uranium obtained using the traditional process today would cost between $1,000 and $2,000 per kilogramâ"about 10 to 20 times the current market price, says Schneider. (The price of uranium did rise to around $300 per kilogram as recently as 2007, however.) The new process could cut that cost significantly.

      Current price is around $31 per pound ($68 a kilo).
      http://www.mining.com/chart-ur...

      A sharp spike in uranium prices in 2007 had many people scared in terms of the sustainability of the nuclear industry, [at $100 per lb]

      So if the nuclear industry is unsustainable with mined uranium then it is completely unsustainable with ocean extracted uranium, which realistically costs around 20 times as much.

      How's that nuclear waste problem coming along? Perhaps the mafia can help.

      Just make sure that nuclear waste doesn't leak. Oops.
      Radiation leaks force transfer of nuclear waste from New ...
      Nuclear waste leaking at Hanford site in Washington, again ...
      After $40 Billion , America's Biggest Nuclear Dump Is Still ...
      Radiation leak at nuclear waste dump raises questions ...
      Ocean disposal of radioactive waste - Wikipedia, the free ...
      Thousands of radioactive waste barrels rusting ...
      Japan Times: Now 400 tons a day of toxic water is estimated ...

      Because nuclear accidents stopped happening after Chernobyl right? Nope. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...

      But hey, todays new breed of super-human won't make the same mistakes as those past

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    9. Re: Indeed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Or we could run the world on the hot air of thorium enthusiasts, forever.

    10. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      Nuclear generated electricity is expensive.
      Thorium nuclear generated electricity is even more expensive due to the reactor design needing to be more robust.

      Uranium recoverable at only $300-$400/kg.

      Citation needed, the articles I've read claimed $1000 to $2000 per kilo.
      http://www.technologyreview.co...

      If these new designs are so great then why does the nuclear industry keep going with the old designs?

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    11. Re:Indeed... by mdsolar · · Score: 2

      The number of reactors peaked in 2002 http://www.worldnuclearreport.... but the power produced peaked in 2006 http://www.worldnuclearreport.... so a few decades may be too long to count for a decline. Market share has declined for a while now, but that does not influence the rate of uranium consumption.

    12. Re: Indeed... by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > Or we could run the world on the hot air of thorium enthusiasts, forever.

      Just collect them together and sit them down under a horizontal wind turbine.

    13. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      In 2013, investment advisers Morningstar, Inc. concluded that, in developed countries, "reactors are not a viable source of new power".[12] Even in developed nations where they make economic sense, they are not feasible because of nuclear's "enormous costs, political and popular opposition, and regulatory uncertainty".[12] This view echoes the statement of former Exelon CEO John Rowe, who said in 2012 that new nuclear plants in the US "don't make any sense right now" and won't be economically viable in the foreseeable future, because of low natural gas prices in the American market.[13] John Quiggin, an economics professor, says that the main problem with the nuclear option is that it is not economically viable. Former NRC member Peter Bradford and Professor Ian Lowe have recently made similar statements.[14][15] However, nuclear supporters continue to champion reactors, often with proposed new but largely untested designs, as a source of new power.[12][14][16][17][18][19][20]

      Economics of nuclear power plants - Wikipedia

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    14. Re:Indeed... by nojayuk · · Score: 2

      The Olympic Dam copper, uranium and gold mine in south Australia is installing an experimental acid leach facility to process their spoil to extract residual uranium and copper.

      "Olympic Dam currently produces close to 4000 tU3O8 per year and around 180,000 tonnes of copper. The planned [acid leach] expansion could lift annual uranium production to around 19,000 tonnes U3O8 and boost annual copper production by up to 515,000 tonnes." (From World Nuclear News)

      The uranium market spot price has been depressed for a few years in part due to the "Megatons to Megawatts" project which put a lot of excess Russian weapons-grade uranium into the fuel pipeline, effectively subsidised by the US government as part of its non-proliferation efforts. Now that this project is complete it's expected the minehead price will rise again and mining operations are looking to expand their production now that it is expected to be more profitable in the near future.

    15. Re:Indeed... by MachineShedFred · · Score: 1

      I'm sure that the mining companies dynamite the entrances to the mine just as soon as they decide it's no longer profitable, and only mine Uranium and nothing else.

      No, actually they just leave a hole in the ground that they can come back to any time they want to, or continue mining all the other ore in the same dirt, and just keep the Uranium around for when it's needed.

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    16. Re:Indeed... by GarethIwanFairclough · · Score: 1

      If these new designs are so great then why does the nuclear industry keep going with the old designs?

      Politics dude, politics.

    17. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      Nuclear generated electricity is expensive.

      Depends on type, project and installation. The utilities building them seem quite content to keep going, as they see them being competitive with current baseload sources.

      Thorium nuclear generated electricity is even more expensive due to the reactor design needing to be more robust.

      Actually, in most Thorium molten-salt designs, the reactor is a lot less robust (in terms of raw materials, at least), because molten-salt isn't pressurized, so there's no need for a big heavy pressure vessel and an enormous containment building around it. But it really depends on the exact design you are talking about - perhaps clarify and we can have a more informed discussion. In any case, I'd contend your blanket statement of "Thorium nuclear generated electricity is even more expensive". That claim requires access to broad knowledge of the cost structure of Thorium power reactor designs and as far as I know, those aren't available yet.

      Citation needed, the articles I've read claimed $1000 to $2000 per kilo.

      You are correct, *at present* it is indeed pretty high (which would mean we'd just favor mining). The cost reduction into the $300/kg category would require some advances in the material properties of the absorbent used: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi...
      So consider ~$1500/kg the top-end estimate should uranium mining become completely unviable (we've again got thousands upon thousands of years of mineable Uranium at $500/kg, so I'm hopeful the absorbent properties can be sorted by then; or indeed we might finally crack fusion - that'd be the coolest of all prospects). In any case, thanks for the heads up on the present-day costs.

      If these new designs are so great then why does the nuclear industry keep going with the old designs?

      A few points to this:
      1) Give them some time, they are slowly coming along. Anything nuclear is needs to be approached very carefully. If all goes well, we should see the pilot plants coming online in the early 2020s.
      2) By and large the new nuclear construction projects are building Gen III units such as the AP1000, EPR, ABWR and VVER-1200, all of which have much improved on the light-water concept (though they aren't strictly revolutionary - well, perhaps the AP1000 is a bit closer to being a significant departure). 3) There is, in fact, one pilot Gen IV plant already built and about to be commissioned (the Beloyarsk 4 unit), running a BN-800 reactor, a pool-type liquid sodium-cooled fast breeder. I don't think it's the best design, but it's a step in the right direction. It will be a proving ground and a learning platform for their mass-production units (BN-1200). We'll have to wait and see.

    18. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      Cost dude cost. Nuclear is very expensive these days, decommissioning costs are far far higher than initial estimates.

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    19. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      Ah, Wikipedia, that ever reliable source of unbiased and completely objective analysis on matters of significant nuance.

    20. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      operating costs for 61 nuclear sites in 2012. The average came to $44/MWh

      Add to that construction costs, decommissioning costs and nuclear fuel reprocessing / storage costs and you've got one very expensive method of producing electricity.

      http://www.world-nuclear.org/i...

      Why aren't there more nuclear fuel reprocessing plants? Because it's horrendously expensive.
      http://belfercenter.ksg.harvar...

      Cost of building maintaining, removing new Wind farms?
      Less than $36.5 per MWh
      Wind Technologies Market Report

      With the numerous ways of matching and storing wind energy,nuclear can not compete

      Wind power is continuously getting cheaper, solar power is continuously getting cheaper and there is good reason for that to continue. Storage technologies are also getting cheaper. Solar is set to become the 2nd cheapest form of energy, after Wind.
      http://cleantechnica.com/2014/...

      http://i1.wp.com/cleantechnica...

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    21. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      Ah, don't like the message, attack the messenger. (note the number of sources).

      I did the math on the amount of subsidies the UK govt idiots are offering EDF, it amounted to a stinking £36 billion just for the kWh price subsidy.

      Le prix fixe - billions of pounds in subsidies on UK consumer energy bills

      At £16bn and a decade to build, Hinkleyâ(TM)s up-front costs are too high to be viable without government support. The main subsidy is the 'contract for differenceâ(TM), guaranteeing EDFâ(TM)s revenues at a 'strike priceâ(TM) of £92.50 for every megawatt hour of power Hinkley generates over a 35-year contract.

      When the market price is lower, EDF receives a âoetop-upâ paid for on all UK consumer energy bills. If the market price is higher, EDF pays back the difference. The certainty should help reduce EDFâ(TM)s borrowing costs; CF Partners say EDF can now bank on £83bn of revenue, in 'real termsâ(TM), undiscounted.

      How much is subsidy depends on the power price but CF Partners estimates in 2023 the âoetop-upâ will be £700m or £7 a household.

      Mr Davey says the impact on bills will be âoenegligibleâ but officials estimate the âoetop-upsâ could have a total 'net present valueâ(TM) of £3.5bn to £9bn, using a 3.5pc discount rate. If EDF builds Sizewell too, the Hinkley subsidy will fall to £89.50 as some of the initial design costs will be paid for through the Sizewell subsidy instead.

      The contract guarantees the Hinkley price will be raised to protect EDF from windfall taxes or other law changes. EDF says it will bear the risk of cost over-runs but if Hinkley is cheaper than expected it will share the gain with consumers. The price can also be adjusted if operating costs rise or fall.

      So, the govt has offered at least 15.35c per kWh for 35 years on top of other subsidies. You tell me, is that cheap?

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    22. Re:Indeed... by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      Not when coupled with inflation properly.

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    23. Re:Indeed... by GarethIwanFairclough · · Score: 1

      Cost dude cost. Nuclear is very expensive these days, decommissioning costs are far far higher than initial estimates.

      Why did the costs go up? I think it was political interference and artificial price inflation. Why did the costs for renewables (aka unreliables) go down? Subsidies. Political interference.

      From what I've seen and heard, the only obstacles to nuclear energy have been man made. Rather than any truly insurmountable physical challenges that couldn't be engineered around, it's always been blocked by those with a vested interest in ensuring the failure of nuclear fission.

      Just out of interest, why are you so anti-nuke? What makes you feel that it shouldn't succeed?

    24. Re: Indeed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or just chuck them into the spinning blades. Either one works for me.

    25. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      Costs for renewables went down because of scientific and industrial/technological advances and yes political foresight helped. As for the subsidies, those won't be needed any longer, both wind and solar and viable without subsidy now.

      As for "Why did the costs go up? I think it was political interference and artificial price inflation."

      I don't feel the need to debate baseless assertions / guesses.

      Why am I 'anti-nuke'? See 2nd half #47805367

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    26. Re:Indeed... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Your parent was mot anti nuke, he stated a fact.
      Also your claim renewables would be unreliable is wrong, the correct term is 'undispatchable', which is also only limited true.

      (Yeah, now you will start yelling about mo wind and no sun, hint: we all know the sun is not shining at night, and all but you know: we don't need it at night as energy demand is less than half of the daytime demand. Now you shout 'but what about no wind' ... look on a weather map, or educate your self how 'wind is created' then you realize quickly: it is impossible that a country like Germany has "no wind", the same is true for every country that is bigger, and for many that are smaller)

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    27. Re:Indeed... by bobbied · · Score: 1

      Costs for renewables went down because of scientific and industrial/technological advances and yes political foresight helped. As for the subsidies, those won't be needed any longer, both wind and solar and viable without subsidy now.

      Wind is close to viable, but still requires subsidies to get on par with Natural Gas (in the USA). Solar, hasn't a prayer of being viable in the near future. It generally runs 4 times the cost of Natural Gas (again in the USA).

      You are wrong on both counts (in the USA), unless you define "viable" to mean something other than what most people think it means.. In other countries, Wind is at parity or better given the available options open to them (they lack the NG resources of the US), but this is not true in the USA yet, and I see no future scenarios where the costs of Natural Gas goes up and wind comes down enough to be at parity. Not to mention that Wind power suffers from one important problem, it only works when the wind blows, which is not all the time, so you have to build a fossil fueled plant to cover the load anyway.... Solar is so far out of the cost range it's not even funny. Even in the best conditions, solar is not a cost effective solution, even outside the USA. Solar's application is really for remote, off grid, low load use. It's not viable as a way to generate electricity on an industrial scale.

      I don't always trust Wikipedia, but they have a fine article on this topic you should read. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

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    28. Re:Indeed... by careysub · · Score: 1

      Your post would be considerably more persuasive if you showed the price of uranium at which it became "unsustainable", and if you didn't throw out a random "well over 100x current cost" figure when your linked source only documented a 10-20 times cost using older technologies now being superseded described in the article. (Your provide no analysis to show that the even the 2007 price spike made nuclear power "unsustainable" - proof by unsupported assertion does not work)

      At $130/kg the cost of uranium mining comprises a cost of 0.32 cents per kwh. So at $1000/kg this cost rises to 2.5 cents per kwh. The additional 2.2 cents is less than the estimated cost difference between advanced nuclear and more expensive future solar PV power, which I suspect you believe to be viable (I do). So the fearsome $1000/kg price still leaves nuclear power cheaper than solar. If more advanced technologies cut the cost (the normal pattern of things), and the topic of the Technology Review, this differential gets cut as well. A better article on seawater uranium extraction indicates that technologies under development should cost $300/kg, a price that drops the differential to only 0.42 cents per kwh, and making it a very minor component of nuclear power cost

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    29. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      So I guess this never happened:
      http://cleantechnica.com/2014/...

      Why would I want to read information that is many years out of date when the cost of solar PV has been dropping by 40% per annum and has every reason to continue dropping. The EIA predictions are absurd to say the least. That page is pretty bad.

      Even if all technological advances in solar panels stopped, the price of solar PV would drop further because most of the solar PV factories are being built right now, once the investment that put those factories in place is paid off, the price of solar PV will fall further.

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    30. Re:Indeed... by sjames · · Score: 1

      Decommissioning costs are driven up by politics. For example by treating things that are mildly radioactive for a few years post shutdown as if they are still nuclear waste years after the last decay.

    31. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      All so wrong, the cost of solar panels has dropped 80% since 2008, the Wikipedia page is irrelevant due to the numbers being completely out of date and hence wrong.

      The cost of solar panels has been dropping by about 40% per annum, that is set to continue.

      Solar is cheaper than nuclear RIGHT NOW, any increase in the cost of uranium puts nuclear power further out of reach.

      Just the generating cost of nuclear is 4.4c per kWh, the construction and decommissioning costs are a huge amount on top of that. There is also the storage cost of nuclear waste that has been spiraling upwards.

      And the cost of nuclear reprocessing? Very expensive:
      http://belfercenter.ksg.harvar...

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    32. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      If you removed the ITC (a federal tax credit for solar), the cost would probably be about 8c/kWh. Still, that's not bad. Austin Energy's 30-year LCOE estimate for natural gas was 7c/kWh, while the estimate for coal clocked in at 10c/kWh and the estimate for nuclear at 13c/kWh.
      Only wind - 2.8c/kWh to 3.8c/kWh - was lower.

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    33. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      Add to that construction costs decommissioning costs and nuclear fuel reprocessing / storage costs

      Oh my, reading comprehension fail: "The NEI presented figures from the Electric Utility Cost Group on generating costs comprising fuel, capital and operating costs for 61 nuclear sites in 2012.". Fuel costs typically include a fee that is set aside for decommissioning & storage (at least they do in the US - that's what paid for Yucca Mountain), and "construction costs" are a subset of capital costs. So $44/MWh is indeed the full figure.

      Why aren't there more nuclear fuel reprocessing plants? Because it's horrendously expensive.

      Of course it's expensive and everybody knows it's expensive, because of the oxide fuel and the complexity of the aqueous process. The prospects of cheap reprocessing are by cheaper processes such as pyroprocessing, or even getting rid of it altogether (TWR). If you're hoping for me to take the side of PUREX, then you're wrong, I don't think it's a good process.

      Cost of building maintaining, removing new Wind farms? Less than $36.5 per MWh

      Care to actually quote how you derived this number from the linked report? It doesn't appear in there, so you must have arrived at it by some other means. The closest I could find is mentioned on page 55 where they quote operating costs of EDPR at around $24/kWh for US installations, which seems about right. This does not factor in capital costs, only operating ones ("supplies and services, which includes O&M costs ($14.7/MWh); personnel costs ($3.7/MWh); and other operating costs, which mainly includes operating taxes, leases, and rents ($5.2/MWh).") or site cleanup after decommissioning (by my guess it's going to be pretty low, but remains to be seen). It also depends on long-term dependability of the mechanics of the wind turbine, mainly the gearbox, which remains to be seen (there is some wonkiness there, but not much).
      It also does not include any cost of intermittency, which is going to become significant above about 20-30% of supply (even in Germany wind & solar only account for ~15%, the rest being "hard" renewables like hydro (maxed out) and biomass (problems with land use due to energy crop farming)).
      The costs of wind power have also already pretty much leveled out because scaled up component production has been implemented and there's few learning curve benefits to be reaped going forward. A wind turbine is a dead simple system that hasn't substantially changed in 20-30 years. I happen to think that there is good reason to believe current wind turbine designs won't scale well beyond ~10MW because of a simple square-cube law that dictates that for every doubling of rotor diameter, you get a quadrupling of power produced (that's your income) and an octupling of the torque on the gearbox (that's your cost) - heavier gearbox, heavier dome, heavier tower, costlier tower. Moreover, increasing wages are also going to limit the reduction potential. Wind turbines are simply enormously labor intensive, so at some point, the cost of labor is going start to drive the cost of the system. In fact, the report you linked seems to show indications of this when you look at the graph on page 49 for years 2004 - 2009. I don't think all of that growth was natural, certainly there was room to combat it via some larger turbines with better $/kW economies, however, at least to some degree, labor costs were driving that, and they'll begin to do so again once wages in the US start to pick up again. Only time will tell, though.

      With the numerous ways of matching and storing wind energy

      Such as what ways? Oh right, you mean like running fossil fuel plants and emitting CO2. Like how Germany added ~18% of renewables from 2003 and only had a ~9% reduction in CO2 per capita (and kWh per capita stayed pretty much flat

    34. Re:Indeed... by bobbied · · Score: 1

      So I guess this never happened: http://cleantechnica.com/2014/...

      Yea, that website doesn't have a dog in this hunt now does it.. The US Department of Energy's numbers are flat wrong then? In the USA, I don't think so.

      Look, you can believe what you want and come up with links to "prove" your view, but if you are choosing to ignore the data provided by the US Department of Energy, you are going to have to endure the scorn you richly deserve. I'm not saying the government data is correct in all cases, only that the department of Energy is about as close as you can get to an unbiased opinion, at least for the costs of energy production in the USA.

      PV Solar is not a viable solution and another 40% cost drop is not in the future. The DOE says that PV Solar is at least 4 times more expensive. This isn't going to change all that much for various reasons, chief of which is that it will only work when the sun shines. The sun never shines at night and during the day it can be hit and miss, which contributes to a "availability factor" of about 25% (in sunny areas) or much less (in cloudy areas). Try as you might, you cannot fix that with technology. Don't start down the path to thinking that we can just store excess then use it when we need it later, that drives the "cost" of solar up by another factor of 4 (or more) due to conversion losses, and makes your position logically even worse.

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    35. Re: Indeed... by jd2112 · · Score: 1

      I have been advocating construction off wind turbines around Washington D.C for years for the same reason.

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    36. Re:Indeed... by vux984 · · Score: 1

      No, because as soon as prices recover, the mines will reopen.

      Of course they will. But but there will be a lag time.

    37. Re:Indeed... by vux984 · · Score: 1

      No, actually they just leave a hole in the ground that they can come back to any time they want to

      And all the equipment parked next to it, fueled up, maintained and ready to go. And the miners, and management are just sitting there too on unemployment just waiting for the call to go back to work.

      No. Restarting a closed mine is less work than starting a new one, but its still a big project and it takes time.

      Consider the situation of mining REEs in the USA. There is no shortage of them here, but the mines were all closed due to price depression, and China had a virtual monopoly on them.

      The Mountain Pass mine in California for example, was one of the large REE mines in the USA which closed in 2002. In 2007 thru 2009 China tightened its grip on REEs, and they decided to reopen it. The project cost around half a billion. It took a year to get permits*, and 2 more to resume operations on a "start-up basis" (well below "full production").

      Does that sound like "come back to any time they want to" to you?

      * - re Permits: And this was in a HIGHLY favorable political climate where the defense industry manufacturing supply chains were concerned about the nearly complete reliance on China and backing the need to open the mine.

      Mines aren't popular with environmentalists, uranium mines even less so. I'd expect it to be extra time consuming and challenging to open one, or reopen one especially without an overriding "its for national security" argument expediting the process.

    38. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      So I guess this never happened: http://cleantechnica.com/2014/...

      Yea, that website doesn't have a dog in this hunt now does it.. The US Department of Energy's numbers are flat wrong then? In the USA, I don't think so."

      Don't like the message so moan about the messenger eh. That 5c / kWh is a signed 20 year deal. Does it matter who is reporting that deal?

      Did I say the sun shines at night? A lot of energy is used for air conditioning in the US, what better way to supply the energy needed with solar PV.

      Like it or not, solar is a lot cheaper than you seem to think it is, the US DOE figures are clearly out of date.

      "The DOE says that PV Solar is at least 4 times more expensive"

      Where do they say that, take a look at the date the figure is referring to.

      another 40% cost drop is not in the future

      Perhaps you'd like to back that up with reasoning. I have solid reason to believe the price will drop - there are a lot of solar PV factories being built right now globally, when the investment for the factories is paid off, the price of solar will fall, that also goes for the factories built over the last decade. So, there is a lot of competition, constant improvements in solar PV manufacture and efficiency. That is why the price of solar panels will continue to fall - like it has over the last 3+ decades, from about $75 per KW to 0.75 per KW.

      If you don't believe me, do your homework, google solar PV prices plummet.

      http://costofsolar.com/managem...

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    39. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      Such as what ways? Oh right, you mean like running fossil fuel plants and emitting CO2

      No, like Hydro, pumped hydro, wave power, tidal schemes, solar thermal, solar PV, compressed air storage, biowaste energy, battery storage etc.

      Cheap gas and oil won't be around for long, coal is the only real fossil fuel problem.

      There is currently enough Uranium reserve to continue to power the nuclear industry at it 10% of global energy rate for 200 years. So if every country were to go nuclear like France, how long would that last?

      Renewables are the only long term solution.

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    40. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      No, like Hydro, pumped hydro, wave power, tidal schemes, solar thermal, solar PV, compressed air storage, biowaste energy, battery storage etc.

      Hydro: already maxed out in the west. Pumped hydro: calculate the scale involved, it ain't pretty. Wave power is so expensive it's not funny, as is solar thermal. Solar PV is intermittent - see linked graph again, it won't cut it. CAES has some potential, but is as yet much more expensive than pumped hydro. Biowaste accounts for a drop in the bucket - there's simply not enough of it. Batteries are horribly expensive at grid scale and environmentally very damaging (Ever seen a lithium mine? Or maybe you prefer lead-acid? And Vanadium redox is still more expensive than pumped hydro). You forgot to mention flywheels.
      The point is, you need to understand the problem quantitatively. Run some calculations on the system cost and scale and post them - it's a sobering experience. And don't forget to include the developing world, they want power too, you know.

      Cheap gas and oil won't be around for long, coal is the only real fossil fuel problem.

      So CO2 emissions from gas and fracking are a-OK? You do realize that natural gas still emits around 50% of the CO2 per unit of energy, not to mention that any small methane leak is also a serious source of GHGs, right?

      There is currently enough Uranium reserve to continue to power the nuclear industry at it 10% of global energy rate for 200 years. So if every country were to go nuclear like France, how long would that last?

      This is grossly oversimplifying. First you need to understand the relationship between cost and recoverable resources. In general, double the cost, you increase recoverable resources 10-fold. Even using today's nuclear power designs (which I'm not a big fan of, but consider them a necessary evil on the way to better designs), the fuel cost is only about 10% of the TCO of the plant (the rest being construction, O&M and decommissioning), so if you double their raw fuel cost, their LCOE grows only very modestly (a good chunk of their fuel cost is also enrichment and fabrication). So if you accept, say, a 5% increase in their LCOE, you'd have enough Uranium to power all of the world for another 200-300 years. Now you might say that's not enough for fusion to come along, so read on.
      The real prospect, is for new reactor designs that either breed fuel from fertile uranium (of which there is approx. 100x as much as directly fissile uranium) or use the existing stock a lot more efficient (e.g. the denatured molten-salt, not a breeder, but a lot simpler than the LFTR being hyped around the net). Breeders are not paper reactors, they exist and are operating. They have their challenges, but give a significant improvement. The molten-salt ones pile a bunch of very attractive safety on top.
      Should we *only* do nuclear and not invest in renewables like wind, solar, geothermal and tidal? Absolutely not! We should do all of these! Use what's appropriate where it's appropriate. Iceland is a geothermal bomb, so nuclear there is stupid. Arizona has lots of solar, with a little improvement in salt storage, that could pan out. And where nothing else works really exceptionally well (like central Europe :D), use a mix of nuclear, hydro and whatever else you can lay your hands on.

    41. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      Nearly all nuclear reactors are over 20 years old and about half are over 30.

      Capital costs represent between 60 and 75 percent of the cost of a nuclear plant,

      Re Nuclear capital costs, the simple fact is US nuclear plants capital costs are already paid. In 25 years the energy from Wind and solar being installed today will likely be a lot cheaper than 44 per MWh. (Turbines are expected to last over 40 years, solar PV loses about 12-20% of it's efficiency over 25 years.)

      I should have known better than to quote the worldnuclear site, no doubt they are leaving costs out. Every other site states nuclear costs about 10c/kWh. In the UK the govt are offering EDF over 15c for every kWh. The Govt site states current wind energy here costs 5 to 6.6c per kWh.

      How many more Hanfords, Fukushimas and Chernobyls are there going to be be we realise we are no good at managing nuclear power?

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    42. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      Let me put it another way.

      On one side you have the intermittant supplies:
      Wind, solar, wave, tidal.

      On the other side you have matching supplies which you ramp up as necessary:
      Geothermal, Solar thermal, Hydro, Biogas.

      And for short term peaking demand, you also use storage such as Pumped Hydro, battery, compressed air, flywheel, etc.

      I think pumped hydro is a hugely underused resource, all you need is a (small) lake next to a hill, the rest is engineering, see:
      Dinorwig Power Station - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

      Whilst some of these technologies are not cheap, this would change if we invested a fraction of what we have put into nuclear and fossil fuels

      Solar PV has gone from $76 per w to $0.74 per watt of capacity and that price will continue to fall.

      Some countries are already proving that 100% renewable is possible, it simply requires effort.

      Uranium is finite, nuclear reprocessing is prohibitively expensive:
      http://belfercenter.ksg.harvar...

      So if Uranium is 10% of TCO and reprocessed Uranium costs over 10x as much then nuclear would end up costing well over 20c per kWh would it not.

      Sooner or later we will have to go 100% renewable, why wait, why not invest in renewables whilst is easy to do, if we leave it until it's too late the shit will hit the fan.

      Nuclear power is a short term solution which causes long term problems.

      If humans were capable of handling nuclear power without cocking it up regularly then I would support it, but they are not.

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    43. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      Capital costs represent between 60 and 75 percent of the cost of a nuclear plant

      You know that sounds about right. If we take the high estimate (75%) to be for a reactor operating for a relatively short 40 years at a cap factor of 0.8, a 1 GW unit with a levelized purchase price of $9 billion would cost $32/MWh, so adjusted to 100% this comes to roughly $42/MWh. The remaining 25% is fuel, O&M and decommissioning costs. Of course this significantly depends on what deal you get on the unit and unfortunately real reactor purchase prices are a closely guarded secret of the manufacturers. Prices can range from the sensible (Unit 1 costing about $3B in inflation-adjusted present day dollars and Units 2&3 being constructed for about $4.5B a pop) all the way to the downright insane (honestly the idiots who approved this project ought to have their heads examined, if AP1000s can be had in the US for over twice as cheap, as can be VVER-1200s and ABWRs).

      Re Nuclear capital costs, the simple fact is US nuclear plants capital costs are already paid.

      In 25 years the energy from Wind and solar being installed today will likely be a lot cheaper than 44 per MWh. (Turbines are expected to last over 40 years, solar PV loses about 12-20% of it's efficiency over 25 years.)

      Well, that remains to be seen. Current wind installation prices are getting close to leveling out. The future will show more.

      no doubt they are leaving costs out. Every other site states nuclear costs about 10c/kWh.

      The $44/MWh is for existing operating plants, whereas $10c/kWh is for new builds and takes into account things such as uncertainties in licensing, delays and a host of other potentialities for cost-rising elements. Financial prognosis is a black art.

      In the UK the govt are offering EDF over 15c for every kWh.

      I agree that Hinkley Point C should have been sent down the drain, the single most expensive power plant on the face of planet. For that matter, Areva's EPR is turning out to be a massively overpriced unit, at least the way it's being built outside of China. My guess is they're probably trying to save Areva from the massively overpriced fiasco that is Olkilouto 3 (the cost overruns there are largely being absorbed by Areva), in order to preserve what little nuclear industry is left in Europe. Don't know the details of the deal, but personally I'd tear the idiots at Areva a new one.

      The Govt site states current wind energy here costs 5 to 6.6c per kWh.

      That's because it doesn't include the cost of providing zero-CO2 storage and current investment confidence is high. Add the storage and Hinkley Point C will seem cheap. Of course that cost doesn't materialize until wind gets fairly high in the generator percentages, so it'll take a while for it to materialize.

      How many more Hanfords, Fukushimas and Chernobyls are there going to be be we realise we are no good at managing nuclear power?

      Hanford was a military weapons production installation, not a power plant. Don't be dishonest in including it in these.
      As for Fukushima - we'll see how new plant designs do. Had they been running an ABWR or even an AP1000 at Fukushima, dick all would have happened (and that's mostly what did happen, but thanks to mass hysteria it got blown wildly out of proportion; never mind the 20000 tsunami-drowned suckers, NUCULAR ACCIDENT!!111!). Oh and Chernobyl was just a criminally bad design in an almost completely unregulated and curtained state-controlled industry. By that logic you could try and paint the nuclear power industry with the legacy of nuclear weapons. Oh wait, you already did (Hanford). Well, never mind then. ;)

    44. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      So if Uranium is 10% of TCO and reprocessed Uranium costs over 10x as much then nuclear would end up costing well over 20c per kWh would it not.

      Not necessarily. Fuel costs consist of several components, for Uranium it's mining, refining (yellowcake production), enrichment and fuel fabrication. It depends on the breakdown and efficiency of use that dictates price contribution to operation, so it'd probably far less (I've heard estimates where a 5x price hike on raw uranium would only result in about a 2x bump on the fuel price). What you also neglected to consider is that at around 3-5x current mining price, we'd probably have tens of thousands of viable reserves, so the 10x is quite a high margin. Lastly there's the usage efficiency. The LWR once-through cycle is pretty inefficient. With higher burnup or higher breeding ratios (all reactors breed some fuel, just typical LWRs don't do it much), all of which are achievable in modern reactors, the cost goes down. Or we could use fast breeders for which the only cost is the initial fissile load - after that they run on depleted uranium, of which there is a heck of a lot (100x more than fissile).

      Sooner or later we will have to go 100% renewable, why wait, why not invest in renewables whilst is easy to do, if we leave it until it's too late the shit will hit the fan.

      Well, the "sooner or later" might in fact be quite a ways away. Regardless, I broadly agree with you, but there's no need to rush things or exclude one path over another. I'd like to see us invest in anything and everything that reduces CO2 emissions - that's the real pressing issue - be it renewables, nuclear, carbon sequestration or burning dung for power, for that matter. R&D being currently invested in all of these is currently peanuts.

      Nuclear power is a short term solution which causes long term problems.

      It doesn't have to. We have ways to burn down the waste to short-term stuff. We just have to use it.

      If humans were capable of handling nuclear power without cocking it up regularly then I would support it, but they are not.

      That's a bit of a pessimistic way to look at it. We've had a pretty good half century, generated shitloads of zero-CO2 energy with it and only managed to cock it up a few times (and while each of these was serious, they pale in comparison to the number of deaths you see in, say, transportation, every year). Don't you not think the cavemen that discovered fire have not burned themselves quite often and wanted to throw away that dangerous thing? But their curiosity prevailed and we today couldn't imagine life without it. "Nuclear fire" is kinda similar, we're new to it (we didn't even know atoms could fission before 1938 - the TV is older than that), learning and making mistakes, but ultimately I'm an optimist and largely believe in the ingenuity of humanity to master a wonderful new power source and use it for good.

    45. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      It boggles the mind that you can say "dick all would have happened (and that's mostly what did happen" regarding Fukushima. It's clear that the vast majority of the population of japan do not agree with you.

      Nuclear can do no wrong in your eyes. Are you aware that Fukushima is leaking at least 400 tonnes of highly radioactive water every day and it could be over 1000 tonnes a day, the ice wall the tried failed.

      If wind costs 3c per kWh and nuclear costs 10c per kwh, what is the cost difference for 1GW of generation over 40 years? Answer over $24 billion. So how much storage could be built for $24 billion? Enough to store enough to produce 1GW for quite a long time I'd bet.

      (3c for wind because current PPAs are averaging 2.5c and the subsidy is 2.2c for the first ten years)

      If Hoover dam was built as pumped hydro, could they not install 5x as many turbines... or 10x or 20x or 100x? What would the capacity be? (It initially cost $1 billion taking inflation into account.)

      Hoover dam capacity: 352,000km3
      Dinorwig capacity is only 0.007km3 but is still useful as a 1.8GW pumped hydro station (which is profitable)

      We haven't even started to store energy on a large scale because we cheat by digging a very finite amount of fossil and nuclear fuels out of the ground. I think stored energy could match renewables and still produce cheaper electricity in the long run.

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    46. Re:Indeed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "As for Fukushima - we'll see how new plant designs do. Had they been running an ABWR or even an AP1000 at Fukushima, dick all would have happened"

      The First Law of nuclear power: It will all be okay next time.

      "(and that's mostly what did happen, but thanks to mass hysteria it got blown wildly out of proportion; never mind the 20000 tsunami-drowned suckers, NUCULAR ACCIDENT!!111!)."

      The second law of nuclear power: Land has no value, especially in densely populated countries like Japan.

    47. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      It boggles the mind that you can say "dick all would have happened (and that's mostly what did happen" regarding Fukushima. It's clear that the vast majority of the population of japan do not agree with you.

      And 78% of the US population believes in angels. Popular vote does not determine reality. Moreover, your reading comprehension needs work again, as had you not cut my sentence off there and torn it out of context, you'd see that I was comparing it to the tsunami that drowned nearly 20000 people.
      It is estimated that, assuming linear dose response, ultimately ~200 excess cancer deaths will result from Fukushima over the coming years, most of them in Japan. Are those inconsequential? Of course not. But keep it in context - on that day alone 20000 people drowned, millions have been displaced, their homes gone and vast tracts of shoreline and coastal cities and associated infrastructure have been utterly destroyed. If you look at it honestly, you have to conclude that living in a coastal city in Japan is vastly more dangerous than the occasional nuclear accident. But people aren't rational beings and the media know fear sells news, so guess which story you heard on TV?

      Nuclear can do no wrong in your eyes. Are you aware that Fukushima is leaking at least 400 tonnes of highly radioactive water every day and it could be over 1000 tonnes a day, the ice wall the tried failed.

      Care to elaborate on what "highly radioactive" is? We have ways to measure that. Also, where did you get that crazy figure. I couldn't find it anywhere on any reputable news source, only on some fear mongering blogs. Besides, while certainly not something to be dismissed as inconsequential, leaks of this nature into the ocean get diluted down beyond background levels pretty quickly.
      Anyways, stop frequenting crazy conspiracy blogs and listening to professional nutjobs like Helen Caldicott or Arnie Gundersen, it'll rot your mind. Read some research on radiation effects and you'll see that it's far less problematic in the big picture than the media would like to make you believe.

      (3c for wind because current PPAs are averaging 2.5c and the subsidy is 2.2c for the first ten years)

      You're comparing current electricity sales prices for wind with LCOE for new nuclear power plants. Good job on comparing apples to oranges.

      Hoover dam capacity: 352,000km3

      Uh oh, massive reading fail on your part. The Wikipedia page actually says "28,537,000 acreft (35.200 km3)" - that's thirty-five-point-two cubic kilometers, so right out of the door you're wrong by 4 orders of magnitude - quite an achievement, and it only gets worse from here. In order to be able to use, say, 10% of the reservoir's capacity for energy storage (which is a big ask, considering it's been at ~2/3 capacity since the 90s due to droughts and extensive water use by the population), you need another reservoir (or set of reservoirs) of at least 10% the volume at a suitable lower position close to the dam. The nearest possible suitable reservoir is lake Mohave, unfortunately it's 50km downstream, so that ain't gonna happen. But let's imagine you find some way to blast the mountains right beyond the dam apart to create a nice little reservoir at 100m height difference (the dam itself is ~200m tall, but the water reaches all the way to its bottom and it's not always full, so we'll split the baby and use 100m average water height to simplify the calculation). So how much does that give you?
      3.5 x 10^9 m^3 x 100m x 9.81m/s^2 x 0.75 (roundtrip efficiency) ~= 2.575 TWh
      That'll give you the power to back up the US power supply for around 4 hours, or countries the size of Germany for about 2 days. Your goal is ~14 days, so you're still about an order of magnitude short. And that's using the largest water reservoir in America.

      Dinorwig

    48. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      http://enenews.com/japan-times...

      Note that Tepco itself has admitted that 300 tons of highly radioactive water is leaking.

      "so to provide 2-week long backup"
      I don't see any need to do that, I never suggested that. Just make up some crazy math why don't you.

      The point is 0.007km3 is absolutely miniscule compared with hundred of massively larger reservoirs around the world which rand from hundres to thousands of km3 which givens them huge pumped hydro potential.

      "spend it on buying Westinghouse AP1000 reactors (which cost ~£4.25 billion a pop if you look at the Vogtle 3&4 project), build about 30 of them"

      That would cost a lot more than £450 billion, at the rate our stupid gov't wants to pay for nuclear power the subsidies for the electricity would cost us over a trillion, no thanks.

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    49. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      I don't see any need to do that, I never suggested that. Just make up some crazy math why don't you.

      Oh sure, there's no such thing as a month-long wind lull (by which of course I mean time of very low production). Oh wait, just ignore June.

      Note that Tepco itself has admitted that 300 tons of highly radioactive water is leaking.

      Your reading needs work again: "Hirose stressed that Tepco does not believe all 400 tons of the water entering the sea is contaminated."
      Contrast with what you said: "Are you aware that Fukushima is leaking at least 400 tonnes of highly radioactive water every day." Your link doesn't say it's all contaminated, or that it's "highly radioactive" (which I asked you to substantiate with figures again, and of course you can't).

      The point is 0.007km3 is absolutely miniscule compared with hundred of massively larger reservoirs around the world which rand from hundres to thousands of km3 which givens them huge pumped hydro potential.

      Go ahead, make the investment pitch and start building. Or you might for a second consider that people smarter than you have thought about this and came to a different conclusion, which is why you're not seeing the projects springing up like mushrooms after rain. Why do you think is that?

      That would cost a lot more than £450 billion

      Bold prediction, considering that's what a utility building the pilot deployment (= expensive) in the US is paying (where median household income is even higher than in the UK). Moreover, when you buy identical products in bulk, you get volume discounts and volume production benefits - that's pretty normal, even in nuclear power. Even using the hugely overpriced £17B Hinkley Point C, you'd still get ~40GW worth of power onto the grid (supplanting all fossil fuel sources) out of a total of 26 reactors. I don't think Hinkley Point C is a good deal for the good people of the UK and I think the government seriously dropped the ball there, but don't try and extrapolate one government's failure on price negotiation on one project to a whole global industry. If the government were serious, set policy so that industry would be reassured that they won't get whacked over the head by undue regulatory burdens down the line and not limit the selection process for political reasons (it has to be European or nothing!), you'd see utilities even in the UK being able to get much better deals, as others already get in other countries.

    50. Re:Indeed... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      You seem to have reduced renewables to just wind and assumed that I think the country should be powered 100% by wind, That is incorrect.

      Tepco lie habitually. Their own statements show they don't know what's going on. http://www.theguardian.com/wor...

      Politicians smart? They are only smart about lining their own pockets.

      Hinkley point will get tens of billions in subsidies at the guaranteed rate of £92.5/MWh - roughly double what will be paid for gas, coal, wind etc.

      If renewables are so unobtainable why are Scotland aiming for 100% renewable by 2020 after having beat their goal of 31% renewable by 2011 set in only 2007.
      http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-sco...

      Portugal hit 58% renewable electricity in 2013 and in January of this year renewables supplied 91% of their electricity.
      Iceland is 100% renewable electricity, and much of their heating is renewable.
      Norway is 99% renewable electricity.
      Germany hit over 30% renewable electricity for last year and has peaked at 74% of renewable electricity.

      Renewable energy provides 21.7% of electricity generation worldwide as of 2013
      Renewables trend: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

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    51. Re:Indeed... by brambus · · Score: 1

      You seem to have reduced renewables to just wind and assumed that I think the country should be powered 100% by wind, That is incorrect.

      I'm not, but I'm looking at the cheapest renewable. There is some hard (dispatchable), but highly limited renewables, like hydro and biomass. These can make some contribution, but it's rather small. If you look at the fastest growing ones, it's wind & solar.

      Tepco lie habitually. Their own statements show they don't know what's going on.

      Them not knowing doesn't mean you can just make stuff up and fill in the gaps with whatever you like. The linked article is still over a year old and could indicate a temporary condition. Moreover, it's notably light on radioactivity figures for the contaminated water. When you have a look at an article on the guardian which mentions at least some quantitative measurements, it says "quantities of radioactive caesium-134 and -137 in locally caught fish have fallen to levels close to the government-set safe limit of 100 becquerels per kilogram", while noting that it's "scant consolation". I don't know about other people, but knowing that the level of contamination is falling is indication that the situation is definitely improving. And 100Bq of Cs137 (by far the more active of the two) corresponds to concentrations of 0.22 picograms per kg of water (or less than 1 part in one quadrillion), that's pretty close to the detection threshold of the measurement hardware (which is very low) and means you really don't need to be worried at all. There's shitloads of other much more toxic stuff in much larger concentrations in that water that has nothing to do with radiation - honestly, think about the danger rationally.

      Hinkley point will get tens of billions in subsidies at the guaranteed rate of £92.5/MWh - roughly double what will be paid for gas, coal, wind etc.

      And I don't agree with that. Did you read what I wrote? I said Hinkley Point C was a bad deal.

      If renewables are so unobtainable why are Scotland aiming for 100% renewable by 2020 after having beat their goal of 31% renewable by 2011 set in only 2007.

      Because you don't understand how the accounting there works. They look at generation, divide by consumption and declare victory. But last I looked, Scotland isn't an island somewhere in the Pacific. In fact a significant amount of that will be pushed south and reimported from fossil fuel generation later when the wind isn't blowing. But since the overall generation divided by their rather limited population (and thus limited consumption) is high, they can declare "100% victory!" Unfortunately, in the big picture, they are hardly making a difference: http://www.gridwatch.templar.c... <- study these graphs, they're not made up. Portugal is probably the same story with Spain, but I'd have look it up (TBH, I'm not familiar with their grid, I know the UK's and Germany's and I've also studied German renewable growth vs CO2 trends - they won't make their 2050 commitment if they continue at the way they've been going since 2004. In fact, by my estimation after they have expanded to 100% renewables in 2055, they'll still be at 40% of 1990 CO2 levels. Can share the raw data, if you like.).

      Iceland is 100% renewable electricity, and much of their heating is renewable.
      Norway is 99% renewable electricity.

      These two are extremely out of the ordinary examples. Both have very low population densities (Norway 1 order of magnitude less than the UK, Iceland 2 orders of magnitude) and both have specific geographies. Iceland is a highly active volcanic island, so it has ample geothermal resources (and I acknowledged that). Norway has lots of water flows, so it has plenty of hydroelectric resources (and I ackn

    52. Re:Indeed... by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      "Consider the situation of mining REEs in the USA. There is no shortage of them here, but the mines were all closed due to price depression"

      The price depression was because US miners had to deal with toxic extraction byproducts and ensure a mildly radioactive material wasn't allowed to enter the biosphere, whilst chinese producers didn't have to worry about the environment.

      Now the chinese miners do have to worry, with tougher environmental protection rules being enacted and enforfced.

        That radioactive substance? Thorium.

      There is enough thorium _already_ mined and sitting in mine tailings to meet current world power demands for a few decades, if not centuries.

      Given that it takes 250 tonnes of mined uranium (1% U235) to produce 143 tonnes of fuel grade uranium (3% U235) and the end result is 142 tonnes of nuclear waste, the thought of mining 1 tonne of thorium, to go straight into the fuel cycle and the end product is ~15kg of nuclear waste (yes really) to get the same amount of electricity out (probably more as LFTRs run hotter, which translates to better thermodynamic efficiency) with a system which is intrinisicaly safe on the nuclear side (no steam explosions, metal fires or meltdowns), It's no wonder thorium is attractive. That it can burn down uranium plant "nuclear waste" is an added bonus (a thorium plant needs U233 or other source to get started, but once running it transmutes thorium to plutonium and U233, then uses those).

      As a nice bonus we wouldn't need to worry about helium or xenon supplies. Just bottle what comes off and let it sit a few years to stop cooking.

      Am I a thorium nut? Probably - but the current crop of nukes are all flawed and most of them are inherently dangerous designs which shouldn't have been let out of the lab, let alone used on Submarines or in commercial applications.

      FWIW: The level of radioactives in Fukishima's groundwater is close to or slightly below the background levels in seawater anyway and there are places in europe where you'll receive higher doses than anything around Chernobyl or Fukushima just sitting on a rockpile (Granite is radioactive). Nuclear scaremongering has meant that we're afraid of all that "artificial" radiation, but live in places like Denver and jump in aircraft without giving a second thought to our exposure levels. (as an aside, there have been _no_ radiation attributable germ cell mutations discovered at Hiroshima or Nagasaki despite intensive studies since 1946 and the cancer rate in both is 1% higher than background levels. There _are_ mutations and cancer rates well above the norm in places like Love Canal or Minamata Bay (or downwind of oil/coal/gas burning plants)

      Given the chemcial processes (and waste) which go into making solar PV, I suspect the antinuke environmentalist faction are barking up the wrong trees. when they raise those bogeymen.

      FWIW2: radiation exposure isn't cumulative. As with CO2 emissions, problems occur when the damage rate exceeds the repair rate, which means there's a threshold of exposure below which it simply doesn't matter, and even after a largish dose, as long as healing processes are allowed to do their thing, exposure can resume. If radiation was as dangerous as the scaremongers make out, the average expectancy of airline pilots and cabin crew would be 40-50.

    53. Re:Indeed... by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      "Thorium nuclear generated electricity is even more expensive due to the reactor design needing to be more robust."

      Pardon?

      Thorium LFTR cycles don't run at high pressure and aren't subject to high pressure water/steam corrosion.

      Flouride corrosion is an issue, but it's easier to mitigate than water (Water's not called the universal solvent for nothing)

      http://info.ornl.gov/sites/pub...

      "By cladding an ASME Type III structural alloy (Alloy 617 or Alloy 800H) with a corrosion resistant layer (perhaps Hastelloy-N modified with 1.5% Niobium) you can provide the high temperature strength and corrosion resistance that advanced high performance LFTRs will require."

      That problem has been solved for decades.

      The USA nuclear industry keeps going with old designs for the most part because

      1: that's all they're allowed to go with.
      2: There haven't been any new nuclear plants online to speak of since TMI (none of the "new builds" are online yet and those were almost all started over 30 years ago in any case. TMI effectively put a halt to any unfinished systems, midbuild)
      3: Accountants don't like R&D. They'd far rather run with something that works but is dangerous than something which is "untested" but is a lot safer.
      4: LTFRs don't produce much weapons-grade plutonium (way down on conventional plants), which the US govt didn't like because it means the "waste" can't be mined for bombs - this is why the USA shut down LFTR research in 1972

      Since the 1970s, All the R&D for alternative commercial designs has occurred in other parts of the world. Tinkering with water/steam pressure isn't new technology, nor is setting things up so that the the reactors can passively SCRAM. It's just better engineering. The fact remains that pressurised reactor systems are intrinsically dangerous, as are sodium cooled plants. Lead based systems work but are still based on fuel rods and have proven fairly unreliable in service.

      The only serious issue with LFTRs has turned out to be long-term (30 year) storage of cold salts and only because nobody bothered removing the "hot stuff" when the test program finished in 1969. Once the issue was realised and the radioactives extracted, the salts have been stable and no longer require periodic melting/flowing to extract gas buildups.

    54. Re:Indeed... by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      An interesting statistic is that nuclear protest has indirectly killed some 5 to 10 million people by promoting the burning of fossil fuels especially coal.
      That puts nuclear protest at historically some 100 to 1000 times more dangerous than nuclear power.
      For nuclear power to kill as many as nuclear protest we would need a Chernobyl about every year....

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
    55. Re:Indeed... by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      "Why did the costs go up? I think it was political interference and artificial price inflation"

      Very much this - and extremely exacting standards.

      If coal plants had to comply to the same radioactive emission standards as nuke plants, they'd all be closed down tomorrow.

  3. Nuclear is dead on Earth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And banned in space. So, when the last nuclear plant closes, it will be gone. And this will happen on the day some new weapon development obsoletes the nukes.

    1. Re:Nuclear is dead on Earth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And banned in space. So, when the last nuclear plant closes, it will be gone. And this will happen on the day some new weapon development obsoletes the nukes.

      I find that rather meaningless, the US at any rate has this habit of ignoring any bans/laws it finds 'inconvenient' to what it wants to do.

    2. Re:Nuclear is dead on Earth by gl4ss · · Score: 2

      yeah because Finland is TOTALLY gunning for the new reactor for use with nuclear bombs and not for having cheap power to power the steel industry or anything like that...

      some people... some people.. PHEAR THE FINNISH NUCLEAR THREAT!!!

      *) disclaimer, Finland, if given some realistic incentive, could make a bomb in a few years, partially due to before mentioned expertise in steel and other high technology needed to accomplish such a feat. so you better fear it! and since Finland is not in NATO it's obviously a ROGUE STATE and since it's not allied with Russia either it's a double rogue state! homebase of the SPECTRE!

      --
      world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
    3. Re:Nuclear is dead on Earth by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      Wait a sec. Finland isn't aligned with either NATO/US/Western Europe, or with Russia?

      That means Finland is a Third World Country.

      This must be fixed. Someone think of the children.

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    4. Re:Nuclear is dead on Earth by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      The definition of 'third world' you use is no longer in use since 30 or 40 years. I for my part only learned recently that indeed at some point in time it was First = NATO, Second = WP, third = the rest (which makes no sense at all, ad you simply can call them NATO, WP, and 'neutral' then ... ) I'm still wondering if someone invented that definition 'backward' and it never was true.
      As I learned in in school: first world = highly industrialized, second world = medium industrialized and mainly agrarian, third world = very poor, no industrialization, starving and fourth world = stone age/prehistoric underdeveloped, no industry and lots of starvation. (I went to school from 1973 till 1987, so it definitely was no 'before and after the cold war' definition)

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    5. Re:Nuclear is dead on Earth by bobbied · · Score: 1

      And banned in space.

      Not exactly. It's only banned in ORBIT, not in space overall. The reasons for this is fairly logical. Objects in orbit tend to come back down. Having a hunk of radioactive material randomly dropping onto the earth is generally not a good idea. So, we've logically agreed not to fly such stuff where it might come back to haunt us.

      Deep space and interplanetary missions though routinely fly with nuclear power. The latest Mars rover is such a mission. It is also powering the two Pioneer missions and a great number of other missions since then. The risks of doing this are limited in two ways. First, launch accidents will result in debris falling into known areas, so we can mitigate these risks by placing the launch paths over less populated areas and ocean. Second, the components of the reactor really are not that dangerous until after they have been used, so we generally don't start up the reactors until we know the craft is operating normally and not likely to return to earth.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    6. Re:Nuclear is dead on Earth by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      I graduated in 1989 myself. I don't remember learning the definition of first/second/third world in school itself. But it may have been one of my history teachers. He covered many topics outside of the textbook, so could have mentioned it.

      But I think I mainly just learned it from political discussions on websites/forums and talk radio back in the 90s.

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    7. Re:Nuclear is dead on Earth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "no longer in use" doesn't mean wrong. The GP is technically correct, and technically is the best kind of correct.

  4. Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    What happend here is that Areva wanted the deal at any cost, so they agreed to build their prototype reactor cheap with Finnish safety standars (which are very high). the problems started in early stages when they could not produce complete plans to Finnish authorities as their plans were not even finished yet. When Areva got their plans ready they where already a few years late, it was thn discovered that the fail-safe/automation system were not separated well enough, many single-points of failure were discovered and caused further delays as they needed to fix the plans so that the systems fail-safe are autonomus from main systems.

    Areva is trying to turn this on TVO (the buyer) by saying the delayes were caused by them not getting the approvals in time, when in reality Areva did not provide complete plans ever when they requested. Abosulte disaster prject and design from Arevas side.

    1. Re:Arevas failure by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      You'd think expectations for "the plant's automation system" would be pinned down before the contracts were signed, let alone before construction started.

      The Wikipedia article leaves the impression that the actual problem has been shoddy workmanship and poor project management.

      FWIW, In my experience with small-time contractors in the petrochemical industry (back in the day), common practice was bid an untenable price and make the profit by finding or "finding" problems that had to be fixed at great expense, and with little ability for the buyer to bargain on the price. (And sometimes the findings are real; I have seen the blueprints showing a foundation with an 8' radius for a tower with a 10' radius, the problem not discovered until the crane tried to lower the tower onto the bolts in the foundation.)

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    2. Re:Arevas failure by polar+red · · Score: 1

      the actual problem has been shoddy workmanship and poor project management.

      This should be the main focus of distrust in nuclear power; an din my humble opinion the reason why we we shouldn't ever build nuclear power plants ever again.

      --
      Yes, I'm left. You have a problem with that?
    3. Re:Arevas failure by brambus · · Score: 1

      Honestly, this is the worst defeatist attitude I can imagine. "We are bad at building stuff, so we shouldn't build stuff." How come the Chinese are building these very same reactors on-time and on-budget? We in the west need to get off our collective lazy asses and start making stuff with our hands again.

    4. Re:Arevas failure by polar+red · · Score: 1

      I take it you haven't had much experience with building contractors yet ? or managers ?

      --
      Yes, I'm left. You have a problem with that?
    5. Re:Arevas failure by polar+red · · Score: 1

      and it isn't the building part which we are bad at, it's the managing, planning, ... part we are bad at. I truly wonder if those chines reactors are up to specs, are all millions of parts completely on spec (or are there sub-par components ?)

      --
      Yes, I'm left. You have a problem with that?
    6. Re:Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nuclear power plants are just glorified steam engines. It's just a few core components that needs to be completely on spec, for most of it sub-par components will work just as fine as the finest polished turd you can find.

    7. Re:Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      like the reactor vats with cracks just discovered in a 20 yr old belgian reactor, which is installed in dozens others around the world ?

    8. Re:Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You do not build a nuclear reactor with off-spec components in the first place. The tolerances and quality assurance are rigorous. Additionally, China has top-notch expertise on building various things so they have the skill to get it spot on.

    9. Re: Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Apparently they got it âoeat any cost,â though.

    10. Re:Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You do not build a nuclear reactor with off-spec components in the first place.

      (repeat) You don't have experience with building contractors do you?

    11. Re:Arevas failure by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      ISTM that Homo economicus is almost incapable of resisting the urge to cut corners in the design, construction, operation, and inspection of nuclear power plants. (And in non-nuclear projects as well, though few have the destructive potential of Cherynobyl.)

      I wish the whole world was on nuclear powar, but our species simply isn't mature enough to "drink responsibly" when it comes to such things. And with the past few decades' huge increase in pressure to cut corners in order to maximize short-term profit, I suspect things will get worse before they get better.

      As for the Chinese... have they hit on a better approach than capitalism, or are they practicing the Soviet-style corner-cutting that gave us Chernyobyl?

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    12. Re:Arevas failure by anorlunda · · Score: 1

      I worked on a competing bid for this plant from a Swedish supplier that had a track record of completing nuclear plants ahead of schedule and under budget. After loosing thst bid, the nuclear department of that company was shut down.

      The same company and the Finns were also set to sign the contract for a downtown district heating nuke for Helsinki. It would have been a major success for nuclear technology. The day before the signing press conference, Chernobyl happened.

      My point is that the process of bidding and bid evaluation on high priced projects is so burdened by politics, marketing hype, and luck that we might as well just flip a coin. It happens all the time that the contract is awarded to someone who can't fulfill it, while more capable suppliers are sidelined.

    13. Re:Arevas failure by siddesu · · Score: 1

      Chinese aren't building the very same reactors on-time and on-budget. The Taishan NPP your article is talking about is already two years behind the original schedule -- it was supposed to go online in 2013, but it won't at least until 2015. If that's the last word.

    14. Re:Arevas failure by brambus · · Score: 1

      ISTM that Homo economicus is almost incapable of resisting the urge to cut corners in the design, construction, operation, and inspection of nuclear power plants. (And in non-nuclear projects as well, though few have the destructive potential of Cherynobyl.)

      Which is why we need a strong state-sponsored regulatory body which keeps the industry in check. There is of course a balance to be struck between overregulation and letting the industry run wild, where we encourage societal progress while keeping whacky ideas at bay. Most of all, we need a good open and transparent process. And finally we should help the population maintain a level-headed approach to danger assessment. Radiation is nothing to mess with for sure, but the actual destructive impact of even extremely messed up situations (such as Chernobyl) is vastly overblown by quite unfounded fears. By the logic that people will cut corners to save a buck we shouldn't be building hydroelectricity, since every so often a dam bursts and drowns people, or some piping failure kills them or the water flow destroys large tracts of land.

      And with the past few decades' huge increase in pressure to cut corners in order to maximize short-term profit, I suspect things will get worse before they get better.

      Not necessarily, as modern digital simulation and modeling technology allows us to see in exquisite detail what reactor designers of old could only guess at. For all intents and purposes, it is night and day different and has the potential to transform the nuclear industry same as any other it has touched.

      As for the Chinese... have they hit on a better approach than capitalism, or are they practicing the Soviet-style corner-cutting that gave us Chernyobyl?

      No, but they have very strict project and schedule control and the can-do spirit that we've lost in the hippie 70s, which is why they're able to execute on the project much more efficiently. As for your insinuation that they might be doing "Soviet-style corner-cutting", the project at Taishan is 30% co-owned by Électricité de France, which is acutely aware that problems in China will cast a very negative light on them back home.

    15. Re:Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      so often a dam bursts and drowns people

      but that's the worst that can happen to a hydroelectric dam. a nuclear reactor can become a http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D... spreading radioactive material in the complete food chain.

    16. Re:Arevas failure by gl4ss · · Score: 1

      look man they had NOT DESIGNED the damn automation system by the time it was originally supposed to go online! they had plenty of time to design it but for some reason fucked up or didn't do it. plenty of time before 2008 that is.

      that they fucked up many parts of the construction was another delay, possibly why they didn't finish the automation because they knew the construction was going slower than expected and maybe they didn't finish the construction on time because they knew the automation wasn't finished.. friggin frenchies.

      Anyhow, Areva was also on the hook for paying for delays but I don't know how that has worked out, but that's what was on the finnish press some I think five+ years ago.

      the fuckup by TVO was buying from these fuckups in the first place... now they're lucky if Areva doesn't go bankrupt before delivery.

      --
      world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
    17. Re:Arevas failure by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      There are more problems that just the constructor at play. Finnish requirements have changed during the process, and local sourcing that was required by Fins has had a series of issues as well as the issues you mentioned.

      It been quite some time since a green field nuclear build has started, particularly with a new design. They are large and complex projects, and the ability to build them efficiently has to be re-established. There are a several units being constructed around the globe and we will see a variety of results. There were challenges when the first round of plants were built as well, and those units completed have proven to be stalwarts of generation for the last half century.

    18. Re:Arevas failure by brambus · · Score: 1

      Fukushima put quite a kink in any new construction in China, as there was a construction approval halt for near-sea reactors from April to at least October in 2011 (and Taishan is what you might call close to the sea) - half a year delay can easily get you some delay in onlining. You also need to keep in mind that 46 months was the planned construction time, not when it enters commercial service. With first concrete being poured in October 2009, construction should have been complete in about autumn 2013, but adding the half- to one-year delay due to Fukushima, we'd expect it to complete construction some time in 2014. And according to the WNN article I linked, startup should indeed happen this year and commissioning into commercial service, next year (you need to train people, run safety drills, test out all the maintenance and refueling equipment and failsafes, etc. - that takes some time after construction).
      So if you consider the ripple that Fukushima sent into the world of nuclear reactor construction projects, Taishan is indeed roughly on schedule. I guess if you wanted to split hairs and talk about plus or minus a few months, sure, but I don't see it as much of a problem, especially when you compare it to the monumental management disaster that is Olkiluoto 3.

    19. Re:Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      that we've lost in the hippie 70s, whi

      right : cost cutting and other profit gaining strategies are hippie inventions

    20. Re:Arevas failure by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > How come the Chinese are building these very same reactors on-time and on-budget

      Do you actually believe that? Really? When *every* other reactor out there is over-budget and over-time, you really think that China has magically figured all of this out? Either you believe the Chinese are smarter than all of us put together, or there's something fishy going on.

      Let me illustrate what really goes on here, with an example I am most familiar with (and even then, only in passing), Qinshan Phase III's CANDU6's. AECL, while they still existed, proudly boasted that they were completed "Completed under budget and ahead of schedule":

      http://www.candu.com/en/home/news/mediareleases/Celebrating10yearsofCANDUTechnologyinChina.aspx

      Except that for one thing, "on budget" required the Canadian taxpayer to provide China with over $1.5 billion in interest-free loans. Why we should need to do that, when China has all of our money already from all of us buying Salad Shooters, is open to interpretation. That interpretation is "we paid them to take this white elephant off our hands". Secondly, this was during a period when the Yuan was clearly devalued by about 50% or more, meaning that the project was actually on or over budget if you use a reasonable exchange rate. Oh, and then there's the part where we leased them the heavy water basically for free, instead of selling it which would have broken the budget ($200/kg, 1,000,000 kg required).

      Then there's the on-time part. To make that work, Cabinet met in 1996 to completely revoke the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act for this project. Normally there would have to be a Canadian assessment of the project as well as meeting any Chinese regulations. There were apparently = few of the later (it was an existing site), so the Canadian one might delay construction. So they just didn't do it. Actual construction was apparently delayed several times, and it was only by re-definining the project start date that it was completed "on time".

      And what did we get for all of this? Well the Chinese aren't building any more for their own use. In spite of AECL continually pointing to them and saying how happy they are with CANDU, all future builds use US technology. Meanwhile, CAEA gets to sell the tech anywhere it wants. Win win!

      I want my $45 back.

    21. Re:Arevas failure by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > My point is that the process of bidding and bid evaluation on high priced projects is so burdened by politics,
      > marketing hype, and luck that we might as well just flip a coin

      One of the problems for nuclear, the other being the cost of concrete these days, is the long time lines. The longer the time line, the more chances you have for "shit happens" that kills the project.

      In Germany you can go from paperwork to PV panels spinning the meter in two weeks. This greatly increases the chance that it actually happens. So when you scratch your head and wonder why all this low-density intermittent power is being built out - that.

    22. Re:Arevas failure by siddesu · · Score: 1

      You also need to keep in mind that 46 months was the planned construction time, not when it enters commercial service.

      Original Taishan NPP plan schedule called for entering commercial service in 2013, full stop.

      So if you consider the ripple that Fukushima sent into the world of nuclear reactor construction projects, Taishan is indeed roughly on schedule.

      Yes, if you don't consider the delays, any project will be 'roughly on schedule'.

    23. Re:Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's because China is completely free from corruption I think.

    24. Re:Arevas failure by brambus · · Score: 1

      Original Taishan NPP plan schedule called for entering commercial service in 2013, full stop.

      Then that estimate was quite simply wrong. There's no way in hell that October 2009 + 4 years means you start commercial service in 2013. My guess is it was a neat little fairy tale told to reporters to keep up a nice face, while the project managers knew well that 2014 was more probable.

      Yes, if you don't consider the delays, any project will be 'roughly on schedule'.

      You can't honestly say that externally imposed unscheduled delays are to be blamed on the project's management. For example, blaming bad weather for not making your offshore wind farm construction schedules. Large projects can have unforeseen complications and first of their kind projects especially so. Cut the guys some slack, both the nuclear and wind ones, they've got a tough job. Design and manufacturing faults, though, (also mentioned in the linked article) are correct to blame on the project.

    25. Re:Arevas failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Did the slide kit for selling that thing include a case study of the amazing success of heating Farsta with nuclear power (before that little incident)?

    26. Re:Arevas failure by brambus · · Score: 1

      Except that for one thing, "on budget" required the Canadian taxpayer to provide China with over $1.5 billion in interest-free loans.

      This is actually pretty common practice on large-scale projects that are going to benefit the local economy. The US, for example, gives out billions of dollars yearly in low-interest loans so that foreign entities purchase US-made goods (see http://www.exim.gov/). Canada might have considered its sale to China to be of such strategic importance that it even went for an interest-free loan. So don't try and portray it as "the Canadian taxpayer" not getting their money's worth - overall, the Canadian economy most probably benefitted from it and that might warrant some investment from the exporting country.

      Why we should need to do that, when China has all of our money already from all of us buying Salad Shooters, is open to interpretation. That interpretation is "we paid them to take this white elephant off our hands".

      I love it how from a flawed premise ("China has all our money from exports, so why are we paying them!") come to a completely bogus conclusion ("they took it off our hands"). FYI, China had a bidding process where nuclear power construction companies submitted bids and China negotiated and picked the ones that looked best to it and if the Canadian government got involved and sweetened the deal to get some benefit back to Canadian industry, then that's a good thing - it's capitalism at work. Just because some portions of the Chinese manufacturing and export industry have high income from export, doesn't mean other parts of the Chinese economy needs to overpay for imported goods.

      Oh, and then there's the part where we leased them the heavy water basically for free, instead of selling it which would have broken the budget ($200/kg, 1,000,000 kg required).

      Can you get the actual value for the lease? I found the same Sierra Club article you probably got your figure from and it doesn't mention it. Besides a "basically for free" lease isn't entirely free, so overall it might be just another way to sweeten the deal to get a sale and extract value down the line.
      And why would the Canadian government need to second-guess the environmental assessment of a construction site in China? It's the Chinese government's job.
      I don't have the time to fact-check everything you say, but overall you seem extremely unhappy about a deal that's pretty standard, even beneficial to the Canadian economy. Could the Canadian government have gotten a better deal? Maybe. But to cry foul over what are in effect trivial problems seems nonsensical to me.

    27. Re:Arevas failure by siddesu · · Score: 1

      Then that estimate was quite simply wrong.

      Yep. As I said above, you're wrong to think Chinese don't do things on-time and on-budget. As a matter of fact, you're even wronger, as they can't even make proper estimates. I don't want to contemplate how safe their plants will end up being. Of course, in the environmental mess that is China, a Chernobyl or two should not make much difference.

    28. Re:Arevas failure by siddesu · · Score: 1

      Chinese don't do

      I mean to write "can do", obviously.

    29. Re:Arevas failure by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      The Chinese are practicing the raw form of capitalism. You are mixing up political system with economic system.
      Also the Chernobyl accident was not due to corner cutting but man made by stupid 'scientists' running a bad planned experiment. They had a reactor in a deep Xenon/Boron poisoning state and believed by going 'full throttle' they could go back into a normal state. However for minutes nothing happened, except the burning away of the excess Boron and Xenon. Then in seconds the reactor went from nearly zero power to 'above the maximum' limit and the moderator, graphite, literally exploded. That was a layman explanation, I guess you can read up the exact events on wikipedia.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    30. Re:Arevas failure by brambus · · Score: 1

      As I said above, you're wrong to think Chinese don't do things on-time and on-budget.

      No, all it says is that the articles you linked had the wrong estimate in them. I think it was more of a fluff info piece to make them look good in the media.

      as they can't even make proper estimates

      You try to make it seem like they were pumping these reactors out by the dozens and got all of it wrong. The reactor was completely new with not a single unit completed at the time construction started, so it was a rough estimate at best. Areva themselves were still learning on the construction side of the EPR design. Once they have a few units built, you'll see the estimates stabilize.

      I don't want to contemplate how safe their plants will end up being

      Go ahead, contemplate. EDF has a 30% stake in the plant and they too are on the hook for any operational trouble, so you can be pretty sure they're watching the project with a microscope.

    31. Re:Arevas failure by siddesu · · Score: 1

      all it says is that the articles you linked had the wrong estimate in them

      Like I said already, I do not refer to articles, but to the original plans of the Chinese operator and the contractors at the time of the start of the construction. For some reason, you keep denying the fact that Tianshan was supposed to enter service in 2013 and believe that it is still 'on schedule' although it isn't. Normally, this mental state is referred to as 'delusion'.

      Once they have a few units built, you'll see the estimates stabilize.

      In other words, they won't be able to do it "on-time" and "on-budget" until "estimates stabilize". Like I said, if you accept that delays are a part of the schedule, you'll always be on schedule. This is not how schedules work, though.

      so you can be pretty sure they're watching the project with a microscope.

      Blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the Kingdom of Heaven.

    32. Re:Arevas failure by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      that we've lost in the hippie 70s, whi

      right : cost cutting and other profit gaining strategies are hippie inventions

      Well, it's a fact that hippies didn't have any money.

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    33. Re:Arevas failure by brambus · · Score: 1

      Like I said already, I do not refer to articles, but to the original plans of the Chinese operator and the contractors at the time of the start of the construction.

      I assume you've got access to some internal planning documents then? If not, then you've only got news articles and press releases, same as everybody else.

      For some reason, you keep denying the fact that Tianshan was supposed to enter service in 2013 and believe that it is still 'on schedule' although it isn't.

      Construction schedules cannot account for unplanned construction halts due to unforeseen government interference, simple as that. When that happens, you have to adjust your original estimate. They have been delayed due to government action for about a year. They're starting up about a year later. Period.

      In other words, they won't be able to do it "on-time" and "on-budget" until "estimates stabilize". Like I said, if you accept that delays are a part of the schedule, you'll always be on schedule. This is not how schedules work, though.

      Construction schedule is not a train schedule. There are error bars on all parts of it, hence why it's called an "estimate". On first-of-a-kind projects, the error bars are going to be large. Besides, even a train schedule has error bars below which a train is not considered to be late.
      This is all just word games, really. Their construction process was on-time, they just got an unplanned interrupt. Frankly, I won't hold it against them, just as I don't hold bad weather conditions at sea (which are actually a lot more predictable than government action) against offshore wind projects. You do whatever you want.

    34. Re:Arevas failure by siddesu · · Score: 1

      This is all just word games, really. Their construction process was on-time, they just got an unplanned interrupt.

      Yes, yours are playing word games here, because you invent a new definition of 'schedule' and 'delay'. However, in the real world a 'schedule' is 'a plan of intended events and times' and a 'delay' is 'a period of time by which something is late or postponed'. We measure the 'delay' by comparing it to the 'intended times' that appear in the 'schedule'. According to these definitions we can observe the following two facts:

      • 1. The Tianshan plant is two years behind its original schedule
      • The Sanmen NPP, where a different type of reactor is being built, is also more than a year behind its original schedule.

      I.e. you're wrong, and the Chinese experience the same problems building nuclear reactors as anyone else does. And the problems are massive delays and massive cost overruns. Incidentally, this has been a typical feature of the nuclear industry throughout its existence.

    35. Re:Arevas failure by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > This is actually pretty common practice on large-scale projects that are going to benefit the local economy

      The local economy in this case was on the far side of the planet. The economy that paid for it had already dumped about $50 billion into the company by this point, so they could have the privilege of paying more so other people could get it for free.

      > come to a completely bogus conclusion ("they took it off our hands")

      Oh no, I didn't come to that conclusion from the other premise. I came to that conclusion because that's precisely what everyone involved says:

      http://www.candu.com/en/home/news/mediareleases/CanduEnergyandChinaNuclearPowerEngineering.aspx

      Basically if you read the articles on the topic, you'll see that SNC handed off all marketing and sales to China. China is selling them and funding them, so it's their problem now.

      > And why would the Canadian government need to second-guess the environmental assessment
      > of a construction site in China? It's the Chinese government's job.

      So if you want to sell a reactor to North Korea, are you saying its perfectly OK to take their word for it on non-proliferation. Or might you insist your own inspectors have a look?

      Forget proliferation then, would you be happy selling one of your reactors to, say, Sudan, without checking their ability not to destroy their local environment?

      Because there's no possible way that anyone would blame *you* if *they* screw up, right? That *never* happens.

      They passed the law for good reasons. They overturned it one day after no debate for bad ones.

      > Could the Canadian government have gotten a better deal? Maybe

      In the end AECL was funded to the tune of $55 billion, and sold off for negative $750 million.

      Please, let me know about this better deal you're thinking of!

    36. Re:Arevas failure by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      Project management is a complete are of expertise in itself - and there are ways to prevent "economising" on parts.

      The substandard work in Finland is mostly due to a lack of supervision and welders who don't take pride in their work - given that there's reported to be mafia involvement in at least one of the companies supplying labour, that's not really surprising.

      Despite all the propaganda to the contrary, Chinese labourers tend to take great pride in their work and don't turn out shitty product unless treated badly (EG: Foxconn.) or by management design. These are prestige projects in China and people on them feel a great sense of responsbility when working on them.

    37. Re:Arevas failure by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      "As for the Chinese... have they hit on a better approach than capitalism, or are they practicing the Soviet-style corner-cutting that gave us Chernyobyl?"

      The chinese are _very_ aware of what corner cutting can do and haven't tolerated it on safety-critical infrastructure projects for over 40 years.

      See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

  5. oui, nein by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The frogs and ze germans "working" together to get every last penny out of the project.

    1. Re:oui, nein by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Les frogs and die zermans, you language-insensitive clod.

  6. But the good news is by Black+Parrot · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's not just software projects that that can't be completed in a timely, cost-effective manner.

    --
    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    1. Re:But the good news is by SimonInOz · · Score: 1

      I put a software system into a nuclear plant in, oh, 1978. It was a pair of PDP-11 machines, had graphic colour monitors, multiple terminals, and a host of monitoring software, mostly written in FORTRAN, if I remember correctly.
      It went in more or less on time, and seemingly behaved well.
      This was in Holland - and the plant was the cleanest place I have ever seen (a lot cleaner than the hot strip steel mill I worked in some years later).
      The project lasted about 6 months.

      Why are they taking so long? The reactors are pretty much the same, the software is much more sophisticated, and the people are just the same.

      --
      "Cats like plain crisps"
  7. You need more project managers by felixrising · · Score: 2

    As everyone knows, when it comes to planning, you need someone to manage those plans, you need more project managers.. the more you hire the more planning will happen.. almost in direct proportion. You probably don't need experienced engineers as much as you need project managers... in fact, you might want to add a program manager to manage the managers who manage the projects.. this way many plans will be made, planning projects will be finished and the projects will happen because of gant charts. no real self respecting project can be accomplished unless you have gant charts.. and recently there have been some amazing developments in gant charts, for instance, they don't need to be waterfall.. they can in fact be other shapes too.. we're not sure what shapes they really can be, but to be safe, lets make it a waterfall so project coordinators can follow them without too much management overhead. Oh, I forgot to mention we need project coordinators under the project managers, and program managers on top of the project managers.. you know, like a waterfall.. like a gant chart that looks like a waterfall. I can feel the synergy from here.

    1. Re:You need more project managers by DarthVain · · Score: 1

      Yes pretty much. Also because it is nuclear, all managers need to get paid 10x as much. Any large project like this is political also, and likely involves quite a few greased palms all over the place. It also probably gets a lot of government funding. Pretty much everyone has a stake it is taking a long as possible to squeeze as much money out it it. So just about everyone involved has a vested interest in delaying and keeping the "construction" going for as long as possible. The only downside is that someone might get blamed for the delays, which is why you always just throw the blame around at someone else, the client seems as good as any for this purpose...

  8. Gen III $0.15/kWh by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    All of these delays are teaching us how Gen III reactors work. At this point, a reactor can be built slowly if the buyer is willing to pay $0.15/kWh. http://www.westernmorningnews....

    1. Re:Gen III $0.15/kWh by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      From your article I see the current CAPEX is £16 billion, or about $26 billion USD. That's for a 3.2 GWe plant. That means the CAPEX is 26 billion / 3.2 billion = $8.125/W. These numbers are typical. Darlington B was quoted at exactly the same price, although there are rumours it was actually higher. Because of the high cost, Darlington B was cancelled. Same with Levy County and lots of others.

      For comparison, click here and turn to page 8:

      http://gallery.mailchimp.com/ce17780900c3d223633ecfa59/files/Lazard_Levelized_Cost_of_Energy_v7.0.1.pdf

      Hinkley is on the high-end of the bar for nuclear, but I'm not sure that is the high-end because every reactor recently quoted is between 7 and $11, much higher than this report. Nevertheless, taking it at face value, one can compare it to, say, wind turbines at around $1.75, almost five times less expensive.

      And that is basically that. When someone figures out how to get CAPEX down around $4 you'll start seeing lots and lots of new reactors. At $8, not so much.

    2. Re:Gen III $0.15/kWh by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      And, every effort put into nuclear power soaks up funds that could cut carbon emissions faster and deeper by other means. http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-C...

    3. Re:Gen III $0.15/kWh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      I didn't get to page 8. THis paragraph was enough to stop me:

      U.S. federal tax subsidies remain an important component of the economics of Alternative Energy generation technologies (and government incentives are, generally, currently important in all regions); future cost reductions in technologies such as solar PV have the potential to enable these technologies to approach “grid parity” without tax subsidies and may currently reach “grid parity” under certain conditions (albeit such observation does not take into account issues such as dispatch characteristics, the cost of incremental transmission and back-up generation/system reliability costs or other factors)

    4. Re:Gen III $0.15/kWh by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > This paragraph was enough to stop me:

      So let me make sure I understand what you're claiming here.

      First, you're claiming that you made it to page 3, where you find the quote in question, but you *didn't* read page 2 where it said:

      "Certain Alternative Energy generation technologies are cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies under some scenarios, before factoring in environmental and other externalities (e.g., RECs, transmission and back-up generation/system reliability costs) as well as construction and fuel cost dynamics affecting conventional generation technologies"

      Is that what you're saying?

      And further, that you stop reading things because you find a *single thing* in them that you disagree with?

      Ok.

  9. Breeder cost by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    Gen II Vermont Yankee is closing because it can't scare up a contract at $0.06/kWh. Gen III Hinkley C will charge $0.15/kWh, two and a half times as much. Going to Gen IV likely scales to $0.40/kWh. It is true that there is only about 85 years of uranium left at the current rate of use, but breeder reactors don't fix that.

  10. Scope Creep by pipingguy · · Score: 1

    ...disagreements with its client Teollisuuden Voima over the plant's automation system.

    Could also be that technology changed or "improved" over the years that the plant has been in engineering. At one point in some of these type of projects you can get to where the client ends up very involved in the design process and that can blur lines of responsibility ("who does what", not accountability).

    With 3D CAD plant modelling many more people can be involved in design review meetings, and sometimes that causes...issues. In the old days only those who could read technical drawings would be commenting.

  11. Needlessly long? by Jawnn · · Score: 1

    Because, yeah, planning for things like nuclear plants is obviously a needless extravagance.

  12. More bad nuclear news courtesy of mdsolar by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

    What he doesn't report is how the Chinese are manufacturing their AP1000s on schedule. The problems on Finland and France with EPR have been innumerable because of excessive bureaucracy and people who don't know how to manufacture nuclear reactors anymore getting the job. Not to mention continuous funding delays.

  13. Really? China on schedule? by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    China's state-owned reactor builder said the start-up of the country's first advanced nuclear project based on designs by U.S.-based Westinghouse has been delayed further until at least end of 2015 due to tougher safety checks. In an interview to official news agency Xinhua on Thursday, Guo Hongbo, a spokesman at China's State Nuclear Power Technology Corp (SNPTC), blamed the delayed start of the "third-generation" AP1000 reactor on stringent safety inspections after Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. Originally set to start by end-2013, the project in Sanmen in eastern Zhejiang province was already delayed until December 2014. It has now been pushed back at least another year, after design changes and problems with some components. http://uk.reuters.com/article/...

    1. Re:Really? China on schedule? by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      Woopie do. Still 5 years to come online. Not like EPR at all.

    2. Re:Really? China on schedule? by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      Running out of fingers is not the same as running out of numbers. Starting in 2009, that is at least six years.