Invasion of Ukraine Continues As Russia Begins Nuclear Weapons Sabre Rattling

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Invasion of Ukraine Continues As Russia Begins Nuclear Weapons Sabre Rattling

Posted by Soulskill on Tuesday September 2, 2014 @09:35AM from the in-case-you-were-feeling-optimistic-today dept.

cold fjord writes Russian President has issued a stark indication of Russia's military capabilities: "I want to remind you that Russia is one of the most powerful nuclear nations. This is a reality, not just words." According to News.com.au, "It's the first time in more than 25 years that Moscow has raised the spectre of nuclear war. The difference this time is that its tanks are already pouring over its western borders." To put numbers behind that, "Russia has moved 4,000 to 5,000 military personnel — a figure far higher than one U.S. official's earlier claim of 1,000 troops. The soldiers are aligned in 'formed units' and fighting around Luhansk and Donetsk.... And they may soon have company: Some 20,000 troops are on border and 'more may be on the way.'" On top of that, the Ukraine Defence Minister claims Russia has made threats that they're prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons to stop further resistance.

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Sigh... by mythosaz · 2014-09-02 09:36 · Score: 5, Interesting

I guess I lose my bet that the end of humanity would come from war in the Middle East.
1. Re:Sigh... by ultranova · 2014-09-02 09:54 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  It won't be the end of humanity... There's no chance that this will ever develop to that scale.
  
  War is an archetypal situation. Once the possibility of one starting develops, it has "suction": people react to the archetype, and that threatens to overwhem rational thought. The archetype was worshipped as a divinity in many cultures precisely because war behaves as if it was a living thing seeking to devour people - or, in this case, the entire world.
  So yes, there's every chance this will develop into World War III: Last Dance.
  
  --
  Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.
2. Re:Sigh... by amicusNYCL · 2014-09-02 09:58 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  This war comes from Wall St. and Soros and other bullies backing the coup they started in Kiev and thus forcing Putin into a corner
  Why would a change in government in Ukraine force Putin into a corner? It's not like he's the ruler of Ukraine.
  ..right?
  
  --
  "Our two-party system is like a bowl of shit looking at itself in a mirror." - Lewis Black
3. Re:Sigh... by rahvin112 · 2014-09-02 10:23 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  Well he drops a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian territory and he's not going to have ANY friends in that area anymore. He's already made the bulk of the Ukrainian people that used to love him hate him and that would turn to the cold stark hatred of lifetime if he were to use a nuke against Ukraine. Honestly, not only has he broke the treaty to defend Ukraine from the west he'll have attacked them instead.
  Much of this war is internal politics to Russia. The west just hasn't done a good job of explaining how Putin has gained and maintained power and much of it plays into the nationalism he's exploited. The people behind all this nationalism want a big strong Russia again, a world power that everyone respects and pays homage to. To get Russian support for his intervention into Ukraine he played up the angle of NATO on Russia's borders, that it was a direct threat to Russia. Now that it looked like Ukraine might beat the Rebels instead of falling to Putin's puppet state demands he's being forced to take action by those same nationalists he inflamed. If he ignores those people his political career is over and possibly his life.
  IMO Putin was using this staged "revolt" to put pressure on Ukraine to accept the puppet state status he has gotten Belarus and others to take. But Ukraines armed forces winning the battle was something they didn't think was possible. I believe they thought that it would grind to a standstill and when winter rolled around and Ukraine started freezing without gas the government would need to negotiate where Putin's demands for the customs union and such go into play and he turns them into a puppet state again. Ukraines military advances the last few months have raised the spectre that Ukraine may beat the insurgent forces before winter. Combined with Ukraine's threat to join NATO this forced Putin's hand with the nationalists. He literally doesn't have a choice here as his own ass is on the line.
4. Re:Sigh... by ahodgson · 2014-09-02 10:28 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  Imagine this scenario ...
  China, and a bunch of their allies in South America who have formed a political/economic union, get together and oust the democratically elected president and parliament of Mexico and get appointed a group who immediately pull Mexico out of NAFTA and force them to consider joining a Chinese-controlled defence bloc.
  Further imagine that the northernmost Mexican states are primarily populated by ethnic white Americans, and that the new Mexican state is openly hostile to Americans and is threatening to exterminate them.
  Oh, and imagine that your only warm-water naval port was located in a part of Mexico that used to be part of the US, and also that a large part of your foreign trade depends on pipelines that go through Mexico to reach your customers.
  Then imagine that those northern states rebel and demand to join the United States.
  What would you do?
5. Re:Sigh... by theshowmecanuck · 2014-09-02 10:38 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  Only one needed: that the Soviet Union (in whatever name you want to give it) deserves to be reinstated against the will of the majority of the people in the countries involved. But for kicks, that he deserves to be able to be president for life, that he looks cool riding around on a horse with no shirt, that he thinks being called short is unfair (he's practically a midget), that he thinks people believe he actually shot a {insert type of wild animal here}. Add whatever other Kim Jong Un/Il super dictator fake achievement cult of personality bullshit you want. Fuck, even his wife had enough of him and left.
  
  --
  -- I ignore anonymous replies to my comments and postings.
6. Re:Sigh... by Runaway1956 · 2014-09-02 10:56 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  No, Putin isn't ruler of the Ukraine, any more than the US President is the ruler of Iraq, or Lebanon, or Israel, or Afghanistan. Yet, when "US interests" are threatened anywhere in the world, our troops are ready to go. Note that it doesn't require that any US troops or citizens be threatened, merely "US interests".
  Should Russia be any less timid in world affairs, than the US is? Russia had a sort of "agreement" regarding the naval bases in Crimea. Not so different from our own "agreement" regarding a certain naval base in Guantanamo. If a palace coup threatened our possession of Gitmo - what would be our reaction, do you think? Would it have been any different than Moscow's reaction to the threat of the loss of Crimea?
  Russia had MORE justification in Crimea than we would have in Gitmo, because the population of the surrounding area is more than half ethnic Russian. In Gitmo, all of the population is ethnic Cuban - few if any of whom are US citizens or former citizens.
  The issues in Donetsk and Luhansk are a bit more complicated than they were in Crimea. The population is less ethnic Russian than it is in Crimea. But, still - there IS an ethnic population - one which Porko-chenko is prepared to run roughshod over. We put a puppet in charge of Kiev, and he is behaving badly. Porko, the misbehaving puppet, sparked this revolution, after all. You can expect that sort of thing when you stage a coup. There are a lot of divided loyalties in the Ukraine, after all. Stage a coup, install a neo-fascist as your puppet, and some of those loyalties to Mother Russia are going to be reawakened.
  You're right, Putin isn't the ruler of Ukraine. But, Putin does have obligations that our own government is pretending not to understand. Our government has simply dismissed any Russian claims, and Russian loyalties of the people. In our pursuit of "US interests" we act as if nothing else matters.
  I am embarrassed at the arrogant, pompous jackasses running our government, here in the US.
  Yes, of course we have backed Putin into a corner, in more ways than one. And, personally, it would please me if Soros and the Koch brothers were to lose their entire fortunes in their little adventurism scheme. All of Wall Street should take a hit on this one.
  How are those petty little sanctions working, anyway? Has Wall Street come to understand yet, that Russia can and will feed her people, despite our impotent leadership's saber rattling?
  
  --
  "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
7. Re:Sigh... by Kelbear · 2014-09-02 10:59 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  I think Putin is crafty and Machiavellian is a great way to describe his choices.
  But with that said, we don't have to assume Putin to be insane or foolish to concern ourselves with nuclear escalation. His gradual conquest of the Ukraine is a calculated risk that essentially says to NATO, "I bet you haven't got the balls to stop me, I can take what I want."
  He's moving slowly and boiling the frog in the water slowly so that he can get what he wants with slower and safer escalation...but it's still escalation. He's planning to push until he himself is convinced that NATO is actually willing to go to war to stop him.
  Basically, he's started a nuclear game of chicken, and the worst part about nuclear war is that the best outcome goes to the one who issues the first strike since it's hoped to at least partially blunt a portion of the counter-strike. In a nuclear missile crisis, you can't know when the point of no return is crossed because at that point, there's no response to the opponent's latest gesture of escalation, at that point the missiles are simply fired without notice to reduce the enemy's response time as much as possible.
  I don't expect nuclear war to be imminent right now, but with the trajectory Putin is taking, I expect that he won't stop until he's pushed us all to the very brink of nuclear war, and the risk is that Putin may accidentally push us just a hair too far and find us in a situation that even he cannot de-escalate from since he won't know when he's overshot his limits.
8. Re:Sigh... by Guspaz · 2014-09-02 11:04 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  What would you do?
  Point out a ridiculously inaccurate analogy?
9. Re:Sigh... by amicusNYCL · 2014-09-02 11:05 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  the new Mexican state is openly hostile to Americans and is threatening to exterminate them.
  This is just a hypothetical, right? Not actually based on true events, correct?
  What would I do? Well, I guess I would probably threaten to nuke Mexico. That clearly seems like the obvious and rational choice. That would most definitely move popular support in my favor, and people would not think that I am legitimately psychopathic. I would also send several thousand troops down to Mexico to bombard and lay siege to various towns while claiming that those soldiers are actually lost and/or on vacation with all of their military equipment, because that would allow me to both intervene militarily, and also let the world know that I am in no way in control of anything that my armed forces do. And of course I'll shoot down a civilian airliner, because it's not a party until someone shoots down a civilian airliner, but then I'll claim that I didn't do that and people will eventually forget it happened anyway. I'll also claim that Mexico was really always a part of the US, and so I would invade and annex the Yucatan peninsula, because why not? Then I'll meet the new democratically elected leader of Mexico and shake his hand while making a weasel face like this, and I'll have the leader of Canada stand behind me ready with the double-stink-eye.
  Or I'll just tell everyone living in Mexico who would rather live in the US that they should probably just move here. I'd probably do one of those two though.
  
  --
  "Our two-party system is like a bowl of shit looking at itself in a mirror." - Lewis Black
10. Re:Sigh... by scubamage · 2014-09-02 11:32 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  This is very much true. He's intelligent enough to work not only as a highly decorated KGB serviceman, but also to quickly climb the rungs of power in what is most certainly a very corrupt country. Don't underestimate the gamesmanship involved with either one of those achievements. That alone should give you pause before calling him irrational. He is likely very rational - and cold, and calculating, and ruthless.
11. Re:Sigh... by Rei · 2014-09-02 23:58 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  They don't. If they did, they'd have already threatened Russia with them to make them stop. That's the point of having nuclear weapons, after all.
  Ukraine foolishly believed that the US and Europe would protect them when they agreed to give up their nuclear weapons after the end of the Cold War. They're paying for that mistake now. If Ukraine survives but doesn't get to become a member of NATO, expect a full force nuclear weapons program on their part (which shouldn't be too hard, they have lots of nuclear power plants, lots of spent waste full of plutonium, and are the world's #9 uranium producer).
  
  --
  Could chocolate let me finish?
Re:Put it this way by Dins · 2014-09-02 09:40 · Score: 5, Interesting

The only question is - can Putin visualize the worst case scenario at all or has he completely lost his mind?
He's just confident that the west will let him have Ukraine. Unfortunately, I don't think he's wrong. Will be interesting to see if we ever draw a line somewhere and then what we do when he crosses it...
Not due to Putin's ego by SuperKendall · 2014-09-02 09:47 · Score: 5, Informative

Putin has a massive ego, yes. But he's also a realist.
He knows that no other superpower will do anything no matter what he does. Certainly not the U.S. No-one has or will do anything about a whole jetliner of people shot out of the sky with citizens from around the world, why would they about a war in the Ukraine?
Your notion anyone would join forces to invade Russia is the real madness...
So he does whatever he wants because he can. And people are surprised about that?

--
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Re:http://www.jimstonefreelance.com/ by amicusNYCL · 2014-09-02 09:52 · Score: 5, Insightful

The whole idea that there is no actual Russian invasion falls a little flat when there are captured and dead Russian soldiers in Ukraine, and the official Russian line is that those soldiers, apparently with all of their military equipment and supplies, voluntarily invaded Ukraine on their vacations. You would think that Russia wouldn't want their soldiers taking tanks and artillery on vacation with them, but maybe they just do things a little differently in Russia.
By the way, it's just "Ukraine", not "the Ukraine". I would expect 8 former intelligence officials to know that, or at least be consistent in their so-called "memo".

--
"Our two-party system is like a bowl of shit looking at itself in a mirror." - Lewis Black
Actual full quote by IamTheRealMike · 2014-09-02 09:54 · Score: 5, Informative

Full transcript of this youth camp Q and A session is available here.

ROMAN SMAGIN: Good afternoon, Mr President.
I am Roman Smagin from Novosibirsk Teacher Training University.
It’s no secret to anyone that history tends to repeat itself. Historical events seem to unfold according to a cyclical theory. Over these last two years we have remembered and celebrated the historic choices that Russia made at important moments for our country’s destiny, such as in 1612, 1812, and 1914.
In this context, I want to ask you what view you take of the cyclical nature of history as we can see it in Russia. Also, I want to ask you about your view of historical memory, how it helps us, how it can help to preserve Russia’s political influence on the international stage, contribute to our society’s development, and not let Russia be drawn into a new open global conflict.
Thank you.
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Historical memory is a very important part of our culture, history and present. Of course, we must draw on our historical experience and historical memory as we look towards the future. I can therefore say straight away that Russia is certainly not about to let itself be drawn into any large-scale conflicts. We do not want this and will not let this happen.
Naturally, we need to be ready to respond to any aggression against Russia. Our partners, no matter what the situation in their countries and the foreign policy ideas they follow, always need to be aware that it is better not to enter into any potential armed conflict against us. Fortunately though, I don’t think anyone has the intention today of trying to start a large-scale conflict against Russia.
Let me remind you that Russia is one of the world’s biggest nuclear powers. These are not just words – this is the reality. What’s more, we are strengthening our nuclear deterrent capability and developing our armed forces. They have become more compact and effective and are becoming more modern in terms of the weapons at their disposal. We are continuing this work to build up our potential and will keep doing so, not in order to threaten anyone, but so as to be able to feel safe, ensure our security and be able to carry out our economic and social development plans.
As far as cycles are concerned, yes, I think that the world’s development does go in cycles. This has pretty much been proven as far as the economy is concerned. There are economists here and they can no doubt explain it better than I can, but there are various cycles in the economy, small waves, large waves and so on, and any country’s development depends on the state of the economy. This is why economic growth and the transition from one technological level to another always have an impact on people’s lives and prosperity and on the social and political situation.
Just look, for example, at the way demand is growing in the European countries, and how hard it is to keep up with this constantly growing demand even at today’s level of technological development. This is a sign that there is a need for something else, that we must compensate somewhere for what we are not managing to achieve with the help of foreign policy and defence policy.
I hope very much that not just Russia’s historical memory but that all of humanity will prompt us to search for peaceful solutions to the various conflicts that are currently unfolding and that will arise in the future. We support political dialogue and the search for compromise.
Re:Unreal... by IamTheRealMike · 2014-09-02 10:01 · Score: 5, Informative

Regardless of political preferences... I simply can't imagine in what form those threats could have been made. Phone call? Letter? Email? How can anyone be so [IMHO, unrealistically] stupid to mention using nuclear weapons knowing that every word in today's communications is being recorded and would be published by the opposite side?
It was made during a verbal question and answer session some days ago. You can read a transcript of the full thing, without western media's blatantly selective quoting and bias, right here. Do go read it for yourself. The press has been having a field day with taking individual sentences out of context, in many cases not even mentioning that Putin was responding to questions from Russian citizens, to make it look like he's issuing press releases about Ukraine specifically. It's the most amazingly dangerous set of selective quotations I've ever seen. In this case Putin wasn't even talking about Ukraine!
I copy/pasted the full question and answer in a post below. But you can easily find it in that page. It's a long answer to a relatively vague question that asks (amongst other things) about how Russia can avoid being drawn into large scale conflicts. So right at the start he says he doesn't want to be drawn into any large conflicts, he doesn't think it's going to happen and that he thinks nobody has any intention of starting a large scale conflict (er, he might want to re-evaluate that given the noise coming out of NATO). Then he goes on to point out that Russia can defend itself, and talks about the "nuclear deterrent" (same language as the UK uses), and then states again that it's for defence.
You can choose not to believe him if you like. But the USA and UK also have "nuclear deterrents" and their so-called Departments of Defence routinely engage in offence at the drop of a hat. We routinely see far more aggressive language coming out of the White House. So I don't think anything Putin is saying here is particularly unique or unusual.
Seriously? by gerddie · 2014-09-02 10:01 · Score: 5, Interesting

From TFA:

Kiev has received threats of nuclear retaliation from Russia through unofficial channels if it continues to fight pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Valeriy Heletey, announced on his Facebook page on Monday.
This is news for nerds, for people who are supposed to love science. Science is, when you can prove things, reproduce them. An announcement from someone on the losing side who has an interest in dragging NATO into this is not a statement that can be relied on. It is not even mentioned what the unofficial channel, is, nor was any kind of prove provided, like with all the rest of the anti-Russian propaganda, btw.
I expect tomorrow news on ./ to be: The pope said that God is real.
Re:Why the fuck is this on Slashdot? by metlin · 2014-09-02 10:07 · Score: 5, Insightful

I come to Slashdot for a certain type of view point, and sometimes, I am indeed interested in what Slashdotters have to say on topics of political and economic interest.
In that sense, I am often delighted when Slashdot carries such articles because it gives me an opportunity to understand a particular issue in a new light.
The signal to noise ratio here is significantly better than, say, CNN (i.e., imagine siphoning through thousands of comments on R vs. D debates). In contrast, I find that there is more rational discussion, and new insights here on Slashdot than elsewhere. Obviously, YMMV.
Really? by mbone · 2014-09-02 10:20 · Score: 5, Informative

This sounds like real news. You would think it would be on the front page of the world's news sites. However...
Isn't on the BBC
Isn't on the Guardian
Isn't on the Washington Post
Isn't on the New York Times*
Isn't on the LA Times
I detect a pattern here.
* The NYT does have on its home page a story entitled "Putin’s War of Words: A Roundup." I guess saying that "thousands of words are already pouring over its western borders" doesn't have quite the same pizazz.
The article is complete fucking bullshit by Anonymous Coward · 2014-09-02 10:23 · Score: 5, Interesting

There are no formed Russian military units pouring over the border. There are some Russian soldiers who are on leave and using their personal time to help the separatist movement in Ukraine, but there is absolutely NO ORGANIZED RUSSIAN EFFORT here.
I have a lot of family in Donetsk and Luhansk and it is BUSINESS AS USUAL there. The territory is now and has been operating as if it were part of Russia for MANY MANY YEARS. Nothing has changed except the installation of a westernist puppet as President who is now trying to re-integrate separatist regions under threat of force.
Nobody in eastern Ukraine considers themselves Ukrainian, including my Family who has lived there for generations. Eastern Ukraine has always been and will continue to be Russian.
Re:Slashdot jumps the shark by LordLimecat · 2014-09-02 12:05 · Score: 5, Insightful

I guess you're right. But somehow, Invading / providing substantial material support for an insurrection in another country, and then annexing it-- followed by reminding everyone "if you screw with us, things will get real" doesnt exactly sound as reasonable as the way you put it-- it somehow seems more aggressive.