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Sci-Fi Authors and Scientists Predict an Optimistic Future

An anonymous reader writes: A few years ago, author Neal Stephenson argued that sci-fi had forgotten how to inspire people to do great things. Indeed, much of recent science fiction has been pessimistic and skeptical, focusing on all the ways our inventions could go wrong, and how hostile the universe is to humankind. Now, a group of scientists, engineers, and authors (including Stephenson himself) is trying to change that. Arizona State University recently launched Project Hieroglyph, a hub for ideas that will influence science fiction to be more optimistic and accurate, and to focus on the great things humanity is capable of doing.

For example, in the development of a short story, Stephenson wanted to know if it's possible to build a tower that's 20 kilometers tall. Keith Hjelmsad, an expert in structural stability and computational mechanics, wrote a detailed response about the challenge involved in building such a tower. Other authors are contributing questions as well, and researchers are chiming in with fascinating, science-based replies. Roboticist Srikanth Saripalli makes this interesting point: "If the government has to decide what to fund and what not to fund, they are going to get their ideas and decisions mostly from science fiction rather than what's being published in technical papers."

25 of 191 comments (clear)

  1. Re:What bullshit by Spy+Handler · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Clearly you've never heard of Star Trek.

  2. Re:We call this propaganda. by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Funny

    Yep, Robert Heinlein meets Barney.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  3. Re:Not always by minstrelmike · · Score: 5, Insightful

    correction: You hire the engineer who read Jules Verne as a child.

  4. Re:What bullshit by phrostie · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is the difference between Canadian Sci-Fi and US Sci-Fi.

    Canadian Sci-Fi has always been about hope. plain and simple.

    US Sci-Fi comes from Hollywood and they don't understand the difference between Sci-Fi and horror.

  5. Jean-Luc Picard is my idol... by Midnight_Falcon · · Score: 5, Interesting
    and I think watching Star Trek: The Next Generation as a child inspired me to become an engineer.

    Star Trek painted a very optimistic picture of humanity, of a few generations from now mankind not being focused on money, but instead ideas, and progress/wellbeing for all of humanity. About technology (foremost the replicators) really making the world a better place.

    Contrast this to the reboot of Battlestar Galactica , which paints a very dreary portrait of advancement of science/artificial intelligence causing the downfall of humanity..

    1. Re:Jean-Luc Picard is my idol... by Prune · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Contrast this to the reboot of Battlestar Galactica , which paints a very
      realistic portrait of advancement of science/artificial intelligence causing the downfall of humanity..


      FTFY

      --
      "Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."
  6. Wow, that is fiction. by RJFerret · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "If the government has to decide what to fund and what not to fund, they are going to get their ideas and decisions mostly from science fiction rather than what's being published in technical papers."

    Shouldn't that read...

    "If the government has to decide what to fund and what not to fund, they are going to get their ideas and decisions mostly from the Bible rather than anything remotely reasonable."

    We need the populace to elect different folks before the dream of the former would be true.

  7. Re:Sure, for those who have it made... by Teresita · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Science fiction isn't really about the future, it's always about right now. That's why we have the spectacle of Star Trek and 007 "reboots" that deal with urban terrorism. That's why the last Captain America looks like a Snowden fever dream. That's why Star Wars 7 will focus on the melting of the glaciers of Hoth and the "war on women" by remnants of the Old Empire.

  8. Re:Spoiler by Barny · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Well, the single thing limiting how big a skyscraper we can build right now has nothing to do with structural limits and materials.

    Elevator traffic. At some point you reach an elevator event horizon where adding a new floor on top means losing one or more floors at the bottom due to needing more elevators to move people to those new floors.

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    ...
    /me sighs
  9. Re: What bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful
    It's part of the geek mythology that somehow imagination trumps reality, and if you can imagine it, it can happen.

    Do you have *any* idea of the quantity of sci-fi written that *didn't* predict anything at all?

    What nonsense!

    You want leadership, well you'll need to talk about people like Vannevar Bush that *thought out* the Memex, or JCR Licklider who talked about gigabit computing possibilities in the *1960s* in engineering papers.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...

    http://memex.org/licklider.pdf

    He write any sci-fi? Nah.

    Not some daydreamer writing some stories that half a century later get selected by hindsight as being "inspirational"! When it was the other way around; the thinkers inspired the writers!!!

  10. perhaps pessimism goes in cycles? by roc97007 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Anyone remember the seventies pre-Star Wars? You couldn't produce an SF film unless it had a downer ending. The magazine of fantasy and science fiction was full of depressing dystopian stories. Dangerous Visions, Last Days of Man on Earth, Driftglass... The book stands were loaded with depressing scifi. It wasn't a particularly uplifting time. I remember wondering at the time whether the industry go through cycles, where to differentiate yourself you have to write depressing fiction, and then everyone follows along, and then to differentiate yourself you have to go with, I dunno, a happy ending, and everyone follows suit, back and forth. Or whether literature and media tend to track some manic-depressive cycle of society. Or drives it.

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    1. Re:perhaps pessimism goes in cycles? by TubeSteak · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Anyone remember the seventies pre-Star Wars? You couldn't produce an SF film unless it had a downer ending.

      Highlights of the early 70s include the USA abandoning the gold peg, the CIA overthrowing the government of Chile, the Vietnam War showing itself a failure, the oil crisis, Pol Pot killing millions in Cambodia, African countries overthrowing their leaders, etc etc etc.

      The 70s were a dark and stormy time.
      And don't forget that the Cuban Missile crisis, despite happening the previous decade, had a serious effect on the US psyche.

      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
  11. Dystopian v/s utopian by bitflusher · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The thing about the extremes of positive and negative stories.. Dystopian = everything is rotten, yet there is some hope Utopian = everything seems perfect at first, yet these is something is deepely wrong in the background. Now what is the positive story? The reader decides to focus on positive or negative overall aspects. Take a utopian version of hunger games. The main character of hunger games. She grows up in the capital. There is welth and lots of great food, parties and everything. There is even a great yearly entertainment thing where less fortunate kids from the districts get the opertunity to show worrier skills and make themselves and their families rich. When she volentiers for a job to help these kids prepare (a job that can make you famous) the harsh reality becomes apparent. These kids and family are repressed and live awful lives just to make the life in the capital possible. When she tries to speak up she gets to feel just how awfull the powers in the can be, even her family and friends are punnished for her attempts to speak up. Same world other view. In the end what story is more positive?

    1. Re:Dystopian v/s utopian by rtb61 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Keep in mind utopian failures are not a societal thing they are a species thing. In all cases human utopian societies are subverted and corrupted by a parasitical sub-species of humanity, psychopaths. Quite simply remove them and a lot of humanities problems will go away with them. Empathy and a full set of human emotions are a functional developmental requirement for a human to effectively fit in and cooperatively support the endeavours of the society that they are a part of. Rather than preying upon it and demanding to have far more than others up to and including to the point of triggering the collapse of that society.

      So rather than a dystopian view of breeding and future citizen nurturing licences a positive view is likely in order.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  12. Re:I'm not optimistic.. by cavreader · · Score: 5, Interesting

    There are currently a lot of smart and well funded global efforts to create alternative energy sources. And people would be surprised how much money the current Oil companies are investing in alternative fuel research. They know eventually that fossil fuel use will decline and they would like to be as dominate in the alternative energy market as they are in the hydrocarbon extraction market. Whoever gets there first with a viable alternative energy source will reap enormous profits. And as long as we are talking about science fiction I think harnessing zero-point energy technologies would be really cool.

  13. Not familiar with NIH funding, then? by damn_registrars · · Score: 4, Informative
    The National Institutes of Health are one of (or perhaps the, depending on whom you ask) largest funding sources for research from the federal government. I know many people who have reviewed grant applications there, and they would be rather astonished to see

    Roboticist Srikanth Saripalli makes this interesting point: "If the government has to decide what to fund and what not to fund, they are going to get their ideas and decisions mostly from science fiction rather than what's being published in technical papers."

    Because at NIH indeed you are placed on a grant review board because of your techical knowledge of the matter. On top of that, the applications are all supported by citations in technical (and peer-reviewed) papers.

    As best I understand funding at DOE and NSF works much the same way; your odds of getting funded are astronomically better if you have good primary literature to support the experiment you propose. Now, if your funding plans revolve around convincing your favorite congress-critter to write in a line (or a full bill) to get you some money, that might work too but it generally isn't the most reliable way to establish a career path.

    --
    Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
  14. Where the pessimism comes from. by hey! · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The pessimism and dystopia in sci-fi doesn't come from a lack of research resources on engineering and science. It mainly comes from literary fashion.

    If the fashion with editors is bleak, pessimistic, dystopian stories, then that's what readers will see on the bookshelves and in the magazines, and authors who want to see their work in print will color their stories accordingly. If you want to see more stories with a can-do, optimistic spirit, then you need to start a magazine or publisher with a policy of favoring such manuscripts. If there's an audience for such stories it's bound to be feasible. There a thousand serious sci-fi writers for every published one; most of them dreadful it is true, but there are sure to be a handful who write the good old stuff, and write it reasonably well.

    A secondary problem is that misery provides many things that a writer needs in a story. Tolstoy once famously wrote, "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." I actually Tolstoy had it backwards; there are many kinds of happy families. Dysfunctions on the other hand tends to fall into a small number of depressingly recognizable patterns. The problem with functional families from an author's standpoint is that they don't automatically provide something that he needs for his stories: conflict. Similarly a dystopian society is a rich source of conflicts, obstacles and color, as the author of Snow Crash must surely realize. Miserable people in a miserable setting are simply easier to write about.

    I recently went on a reading jag of sci-fi from the 30s and 40s, and when I happened to watch a screwball comedy movie ("His Girl Friday") from the same era, I had an epiphany: the worlds of the sci-fi story and the 1940s comedy were more like each other than they were like our present world. The role of women and men; the prevalence of religious belief, the kinds of jobs people did, what they did in their spare time, the future of 1940 looked an awful lot like 1940.

    When we write about the future, we don't write about a *plausible* future. We write about a future world which is like the present or some familiar historical epoch (e.g. Roman Empire), with conscious additions and deletions. I think a third reason may be our pessimism about our present and cynicism about the past. Which brings us right back to literary fashion.

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    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    1. Re:Where the pessimism comes from. by hey! · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I'd argue that we do try to write about the future, but the thing is: it's pretty damn hard to predict the future. ...
      The problem is that if we look at history, we see it littered with disruptive technologies and events which veered us way off course from that mere extrapolation into something new.

      I think you are entirely correct about the difficulty in predicting disruptive technologies. But there's an angle here I think you may not have considered: the possibility that just the cultural values and norms of the distant future might be so alien to us that readers wouldn't identify with future people or want to read about them and their problems.

      Imagine a reader in 1940 reading a science fiction story which accurately predicted 2014. The idea that there would be women working who aren't just trolling for husbands would strike him as bizarre and not very credible. An openly transgendered character who wasn't immediately arrested or put into a mental hospital would be beyond belief.

      Now send that story back another 100 years, to 1840. The idea that blacks should be treated equally and even supervise whites would be shocking. Go back to 1740. The irrelevance of the hereditary aristocracy would be difficult to accept. In 1640, the secularism of 2014 society and would be distasteful, and the relative lack of censorship would be seen as radical (Milton wouldn't publish his landmark essay Aereopagitica for another four years). Hop back to 1340. A society in which the majority of the population is not tied to the land would be viewed as chaos, positively diseased. But in seven years the BLack Death will arrive in Western Europe. Displaced serfs will wander the land, taking wage work for the first time in places where the find labor shortages. This is a shocking change that will resist all attempts at reversal.

      This is all quite apart from the changes in values that have been forced upon us by scientific and technological advancement. The ethical issues discussed in a modern text on medical ethics would probably have frozen Edgar Allen Poe's blood.

      I think it's just as hard to predict how the values and norms of society will change in five hundred years as it is to accurately predict future technology. My guess is that while we'd find things to admire in that future society, overall we would find it disturbing, possibly even evil according to our values. I say this not out of pessimism, but out my observation that we're historically parochial. We think implicitly like Karl Marx -- that there's a point where history comes to an end. Only we happen to think that point is *now*. Yes, we understand that our technology will change radically, but we assume our culture will not.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  15. Re:Spoiler by Jeremi · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Old news. This was attempted over 2000 years ago, and it ended badly.

    Phooey. It only failed because they didn't use XML.

    --


    I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  16. I don't think they're associated... by Karmashock · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I don't think we're pessimistic because they wrote of dark futures. I think we're pessimistic because we see our society rotting and see no way to cut the rot out and rebuild.

    --
    I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
  17. Re:SCI-FI used to be inspiring by Concerned+Onlooker · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "The current crop of sci-fi-writer-wannabes just ain't got the imagination to inspire"

    I'm not sure there's even really a market for science fiction. What was that last Star Trek movie? I can't even remember the name of it now. It wasn't science fiction. It was an action flick with more explosions than ideas. It just happened to be set on a spaceship.

    I'm willing to bet not many these days would have the patience to site through 2001: A Space Odyssey, let alone the original Solaris.

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    http://www.rootstrikers.org/
  18. Re:What bullshit by apraetor · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Before the first rockets were ever built they were featured in scifi adventure stories.

  19. Re:We call this propaganda. by wonkey_monkey · · Score: 5, Funny

    If your English wasn't so atrocious

    weren't.

    --
    systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
  20. Re:Filter of Time by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's similar to the filter that gets applied to modern music: it always seems to appear that things were better in the past because you forget the bad songs and only remember the good ones.

    Just so.

    It's why I listen to oldies stations when I'm driving.

    90% if everything is crap. But for oldies, the 90% filter has already removed most of the crap before it has a chance of being repeated.

    So the oldies stations playlist is taken from the "non-crap" survivors of the era in question. Unlike stations playing modern music, where the crap filters haven't yet engaged effectively.

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  21. Star Trek had a new dystopia every week. by doug141 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Counter point: Star Trek needed a universe in which they could tell not just one dystopian story, but a new one every week, by visiting a planet that went off the rails in one of the same ways we might.