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CDC: Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million In 4 Months

Posted by Soulskill on from the time-to-seal-myself-inside-a-plastic-bubble dept.

mdsolar sends this report from the NY Times: Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling. In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps spreading without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported. ... In the best-case model — which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission — the epidemic in both countries would be 'almost ended' by Jan. 20, the report said.

4 of 280 comments (clear)

  1. Re:eyebrows raised. by Wraithlyn · · Score: 4, Informative

    They're assuming cases are underreported by a factor of 2.5.

    --
    "Mind, as manifested by the capacity to make choices, is to some extent present in every electron." -Freeman Dyson
  2. Death Toll by fraber · · Score: 5, Informative

    The death toll of the disease is 80% of all persons infected.
    While the disease increases exponentially, the ratio of infected / dead is around 55% currently. But that still means that 80% will be dead three weeks later.
    Source: http://healthmap.org/site/dise...

  3. Re:BS by idontgno · · Score: 5, Informative

    Probably. Funerary practices in that part of the world are very home-centered, generally administered by the grieving family. That's a major current transmission route, and its emotional and traditional base gives it resistance to quarantine pressures. No one is just going to pile corpses outside waiting for the body cart, if they've spent weeks locked away caring for their dying loved one.

    Dealing with the dead is a big part of epidemic management, and "doing it right" (to minimize infectiousness) is expensive, as well as insensitive to the survivors. So yeah, the dead will continue to infect the living, until it burns itself out, or until someone imposes draconian responses.

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    Welcome to the Panopticon. Used to be a prison, now it's your home.
  4. Re:eyebrows raised. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Here are some better interactive versions of the Wikipedia charts:

    Ebola Outbreak Tracker