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CDC: Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million In 4 Months

Posted by Soulskill on from the time-to-seal-myself-inside-a-plastic-bubble dept.

mdsolar sends this report from the NY Times: Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling. In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps spreading without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported. ... In the best-case model — which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission — the epidemic in both countries would be 'almost ended' by Jan. 20, the report said.

1 of 280 comments (clear)

  1. Limited Excel Model by fraber · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I just read the Excel model that you can download as part of the article:

    - It uses the parameters of previous Ebola outbreaks as a base.
        These outbreaks happened in remote and sparsely populated regions. In contrast, the outbreak in Monrovia has hit slum like neighborhoods. This is a completely different base.

    - The Excel model uses a "flat" model of population that doesn't take into account geographical distribution.
        Infectiousness in slums will be a lot higher than in previous outbreaks because of the density of population.

    - The model talks about keeping 70% of the infected population at home or in hospitals in order to reduce the infection rate. This way, the epidemic will slowly decrease.
        However, there is widespread fear of hospitalization and the mortality rate of Ebola (80%) basically means that people will distrust any doctors, hospital etc. So I can't see how this should happen.

    - In the history of Ebola there was no outbreak of this size.
        In the past there were plenty (relatively) of workers per case. But now patients will outnumber the helpers.

    Summary: I can't see why the exponential development could be slowed down as indicated in the model...