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Mystery Gamer Makes Millions Moving Markets In Japan

HughPickens.com writes Jason Clenfield writes in Businessweek that tax returns show that a former video game champion and pachinko gambler who goes by the name CIS traded 1.7 trillion yen ($15 Billion) worth of Japanese equities in 2013 — about half of 1 percent of the value of all the share transactions done by individuals on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The 35-year-old day trader whose name means death in classical Japanese says he made 6 billion yen ($54 Million), after taxes, betting on Japanese stocks last year. The nickname is a holdover from his gaming days, when he used to crush foes in virtual wrestling rings and online fantasy worlds.

"Games taught me to think fast and stay calm." CIS says he barely got his degree in mechanical engineering, having devoted most of college to the fantasy role-playing game Ultima Online. Holed up in his bedroom, he spent days on end roaming the game's virtual universe, stockpiling weapons, treasure and food. He calls this an early exercise in building and protecting assets. Wicked keyboard skills were a must. He memorized more than 100 key-stroke shortcuts — control-A to guzzle a healing potion or shift-S to draw a sword, for example — and he could dance between them without taking his eyes off the screen. "Some people can do it, some can't," he says with a shrug. But the game taught a bigger lesson: when to cut and run. "I was a pretty confident player, but just like in the real world, the more opponents you have, the worse your chances are," he says. "You lose nothing by running." That's how he now plays the stock market. CIS says he bets wrong four out of 10 times. The trick is to sell the losers fast while letting the winners ride. "Self-control is so important. You have to conserve your assets. That's what insulates you from the downturns and gives you the ammunition to make money."

10 of 113 comments (clear)

  1. See mom? by penguinoid · · Score: 5, Funny

    Let me play games all day and some day I'll be rich!

    --
    Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
    1. Re:See mom? by WaterDamage · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Percentage wise he made less than 0.40%!!! The Nikkei stock exchange went up 57% in 2013 in Japan but he only made 0.40% (yes, you see that correctly, less than half of one percent) so no I will not back down from my statement that he is an idiot with ADD. The article does not state how big his trading account is so I had to use the $15 billion total figure for my calculation but nonetheless I'm safely assuming that he must be trading with a few hundred million dollars alone to reach trillions in trading volume.

    2. Re:See mom? by phantomfive · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Please note that if you factor in T+3 days to settle funds between trades he likely traded less than 100 times in a 365 day cycle.

      Come on man, at least read the headline of the article, "Made More Than 1 Million Trades". You often don't have to wait for the three day period to trade again if you have a margin account (surely he does), and it typically only takes a day for my trades to settle.

      I see no mention of the $10,000 anywhere in this article.

      From page 2: "his fortune snowballed, starting with 1 million yen -- about $10,000 -- in 2000."

      Actually the article does not state how much money he had to trade with so unless you have a source we have no idea how big the account was.

      From the article: "Those brokerage statements, from SBI Holdings Inc., showed liquid assets ranging from 4.4 billion yen to 4.8 billion yen."

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  2. Largest Ponzi Scheme Ever by Art+Challenor · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So, no studying PtoE, company fundamentals, etc. etc. Further proving that the Stock Market is almost entirely disconnected from the underlying companies. Basically, it's a Ponzi scheme.

    The US government would have invested Social Security in the Stock Market, but they can't find a spokesperson from the financial industry you can advocate the scheme without drooling at the prospect.

    1. Re:Largest Ponzi Scheme Ever by Concerned+Onlooker · · Score: 4, Interesting

      "Further proving that the Stock Market is almost entirely disconnected from the underlying companies."

      Exactly. I've been wondering for some time just what IS stock price based on? Since it's not based on the soundness of the company (the company doesn't even need to have a P/E!) it seems entirely based on perceived potential of the company and whatever news makes the traders nervous or ecstatic that day.

      Therefore, it seems to me you're better off avoiding fundamentals and instead watching the news and reading sociology books. Oh yeah, and developing ways to do high volume trading one millionth of a second faster than you competitor.

      --
      http://www.rootstrikers.org/
    2. Re:Largest Ponzi Scheme Ever by mc6809e · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So, no studying PtoE, company fundamentals, etc. etc. Further proving that the Stock Market is almost entirely disconnected from the underlying companies. Basically, it's a Ponzi scheme.

      This is true mostly for new or trendy companies in trendy spaces. Boring companies that have been around for a long time are often priced based on the future dividends they're expected to pay. They don't get any attention, though, because those that make money on speculating can't make any money by trading them. The speculators and brokers don't want people paying attention to fundamentals. Volumes would plummet so how would they make money? There would be no churn. And then they'd have to sell the million dollar Manhattan apartment where they keep their mistress.

      It's similar to the difference between trading Beanie Babies (or whatever faddy collectible is popular now) and something like wheat.

      The US government would have invested Social Security in the Stock Market, but they can't find a spokesperson from the financial industry you can advocate the scheme without drooling at the prospect.

      The US government already invests that money by spending it and leaving a bond in its place.

      And how did they invest it? Well, there are some big craters in Iraq and Afghanistan now. Bingo halls and casinos also seem to have profited.

    3. Re:Largest Ponzi Scheme Ever by alexander_686 · · Score: 4, Informative

      As Warren Buffet says, in the short run the stock market is a voting machine, in the long run a weighing machine.

      In the long term, the value of a stock is it's future free cash to shareholders, discounted by time and
      risk. Over time this has been proven to be true. P/E is backwards looking, so the fact that you can find a few companies without P/E ratio doesn't prove much. (but yes, it is easier to model and discount cash flows when you have a stable and positive P/E ratio.)

      Short run – yeah – the market runs off on supply and demand, and tends to go with what is popular.

  3. Re:It doesn't take a genius by vux984 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Nevermind the selection bias.

    I mean, maybe its like interviewing lottery winners and asking them what their secret is. Maybe the secret is simply "I played", and "somebody has to win".

    I'm not saying the guy isn't smart or disciplined or has the right mindset to be a trader, but that doesn't mean he's really an "exceptionally" genius at it.

    Literally millions of day traders out there doing technical analysis and picking stocks. Its a bit like monkeys and typewriters in a way. Does the monkey that produces something legible really have any truly special talent?

  4. Re: Lousy return by stdarg · · Score: 5, Informative

    No.. $15 billion volume not investment. He could have started with 1M and traded 15000 times.

  5. Re:Isn't random 50%? by alexander_686 · · Score: 4, Informative

    So who is selling when he is buying? Wouldn't he constantly be behind the curve? Paying too much for the stock and selling for too little?

    You are touching on one of the great debates. Momentum trading is one of those anomalies that should not work in theory but does in practice. Why? Ideas have been kicked around for the last 20 years. Here is a link to a possible explanation.

    http://www.economist.com/news/...