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Solar Could Lead In Power Production By 2050

Lucas123 writes Solar power could be the leading source of electricity compared with other renewables and conventional sources of power, such as oil and coal, according to a pair of reports from the International Energy Agency. PV panels could produce 16% of the world's electricity, while solar thermal electricity (STE) is on track to produce 11%. At the end of 2013, there had been 137GW of solar capacity deployed around the world. Each day, an additional 100MW of power is deployed. One reason solar is so promising is plummeting prices for photovoltaic cells and new technologies that promise greater solar panel efficiency. For example, MIT just published a report on a new material that could be ideal for converting solar energy into heat by tuning the material's spectrum of absorption. Ohio State University just announced what it's referring to as the world's first solar battery, which integrates PV with storage at a microscopic level. "We've integrated both functions into one device. Any time you can do that, you reduce cost," said Yiying Wu, a professor of chemistry and biochemistry at Ohio State.

26 of 167 comments (clear)

  1. Yet some states are in the process by hansoloaf · · Score: 4, Interesting

    of making it difficult for homeowners to utilize this technology thanks to the regulatory capture of giant utility companies. http://www.law360.com/articles/573896/enviros-blast-pa-limits-on-customer-solar-generation http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/as-hawaii-demands-utility-reform-thousands-of-solar-installers-are-laid-off This along with downgrading of utilities stock by one of these banks or analysts (I can't recall which right now), we are going to see utility companies use their political connections to stifle this until they can have full control of the solar electricity production.

  2. Re:My Ass by drinkypoo · · Score: 2, Funny

    My ass could lead in power production by 2050 also.

    Bend over, let's get started.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  3. Not predicted to though... by tomhath · · Score: 4, Insightful
    FTFA:

    The Executive Director also stressed that the two reports do not represent a forecast.

    The linked article also misstates what the U.S. Department of Energy report contains (no, it doesn't say solar will go from .2 to 10%). People post this kind of nonsense and then wonder why they have a credibility problem.

  4. absolutely NOT what the report said by raymorris · · Score: 3, Interesting

    From the article. "IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven stressed in a statement that her agency's two reports do not represent a forecast. "

    The report said "if you wanted to try to have more solar, here's what you would try, and here's what the (devastating) consequences would be. They absolutely did not in any way say that would happen or should happen.

  5. Solar Could be 50+% of production, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Solar Could be 50+% of production, but only around 35% of energy usage. AKA, we'd be wasting power because we are installing too much solar power while we have no good way to store the power, a new solar station only reduces hydrocarbon use by around 60% per watt in places with existing solar power usage due to the need to idle hydrocarbon plants but the inability to fully shut them down. These returns are diminishing. We need to end all solar subsidies and instead focus on energy storage, not tomorrow but right this second.* Don't let help them open more solar power plants till we can store the power. Am researching tech that won't at best be commercially viable for 10-20 years. It's nuclear resonance fluorescence.

    *This is the problem with government subsidies, they start usually doing good they continue until they are bad. Politicians start getting kick backs and thus can't end the subsidies because then they would get the kickbacks.

    1. Re:Solar Could be 50+% of production, but... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Smart appliances with "on-supply" operation, charging vehicle batteries, improved stationary storage, and solar thermal plants with large heat storage could significantly close the gap. Well, could...they most likely will. It's not like we have much of a choice, is it? Also, those hydrocarbon plant will be using gas turbines at that point in time. Again, it's not like their designers will have a choice, what with an energy market with volatile demand.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    2. Re:Solar Could be 50+% of production, but... by hey! · · Score: 2

      Wasting power we're currently throwing away anyhow seems like an odd concern. You could even store the excess energy in a really inefficient storage medium and still come out ahead -- provided that excess power was cheap enough to produce in the first place and the storage mechanism was cheap enough. It's the *financial* return that will determine behavior; the physical efficiency is only a contributing factor.

      The real limiting point for percentage generated by solar will be the result of a complicated mix of factors, including technologies, economies and diseconomies of scale, local supply and demand etc. Where diminishing returns will hit zero in thirty-five years is impossible to estimate today using back-of-the-envelope calculations. Thirty-five years is a long time for a technology just hitting its stride. Consider: 35 years ago was roughly when the 8088 CPU was launched.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    3. Re:Solar Could be 50+% of production, but... by PopeRatzo · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There are areas of the country where it is overcast for days or weeks at a time.

      It's a shame that no solar energy reaches earth when there are clouds.

      I never thought about it, but I guess Germany must be as sunny as Phoenix, Arizona. Plus, I guess you're right that we reached the pinnacle of technology in 2010 and the collection of solar energy will never get any more efficient. Too bad. I guess we'll just have to suck it up and stick with proven technologies like cold fusion.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    4. Re:Solar Could be 50+% of production, but... by Firethorn · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Blenders, computers, and even lighting are fairly insignificant power users compared to our efforts to adjust the temperature of things - water heaters, AC systems, heat pumps, etc...

      Design things so that these systems are supply driven rather than demand run and you can really swing demand around quite a bit.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
  6. Re:unsubstantiated hope and guessing by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 4, Insightful
    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  7. Re:AWESOME! by IKillYou · · Score: 5, Funny

    > "Due to global warming, the sun is only available, on average, half the day"

    Are you drunk?

  8. keep up with the lies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's not "regulatory capture"; it's the very real cost of maintaining the infrastructure that you count on when it's dark out for a few days. I know you're a special penny, but why do you deserve to get paid more for power than other generators? That is exactly what happens with net metering.

    1. Re:keep up with the lies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "I know you're a special penny, but why do you deserve to get paid more for power than other generators?"

      Because it doesn't pollute, it's more sustainable, it makes our country less reliant on outside dealers, it de-incentivizes using the military to confiscate international lands and resources, it increases the national security.

    2. Re:keep up with the lies by Barsteward · · Score: 2

      "Because it doesn't pollute, it's more sustainable, it makes our country less reliant on outside dealers,"

      Unfortunately that common sense answer will be lost on the fossil fuel advocates

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    3. Re:keep up with the lies by Barsteward · · Score: 2

      yeah yeah yeah. blah blah blah. thats why its marching onwards and upwards and getting more and more traction. i bet if you were born 100 years ago, you be saying the same thing about horses and that cars were unreliable and intermittent. Its early days in non-fossil fuel power generation so when this method of power generation has been around as long as the current methods, come back and moan then if its not working.

      your fossil fuel power generation would also cost you a lot more if the governments took away all the subsidies and sweeteners it gives to the fossil fuel industries.

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    4. Re:keep up with the lies by zippthorne · · Score: 2

      But cars replaced horses because they were cheaper to own and operate, more capable and more reliable. If, during the early days of cars when they were really just curiosities, you tried to mandate a shift over to cars, you would have caused a lot of infrastructure and transportation issues.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
  9. Re:AWESOME! by mlts · · Score: 2

    I have a shed on a friend's property which has a number of LED lights on it which are glowing quite well, and it is definitely night.

    What is desperately needed is a form of energy storage technology. We get within an order of magnitude of energy by volume of gasoline for energy density, and transportation will be fundamentally changed. Even basic power grid design would be changed by such a discovery.

  10. So tax us honestly. by tlambert · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's not "regulatory capture"; it's the very real cost of maintaining the infrastructure that you count on when it's dark out for a few days. I know you're a special penny, but why do you deserve to get paid more for power than other generators? That is exactly what happens with net metering.

    So tax us honestly.

    Tax us on energy production and again on consumption -- grid usage -- to maintain the grid, instead of hiding the cost of the grid. Don't let some corporate behemoth charge us what they want based on "Think of the grid!"; the argument is no more valid than "Think of the children!".

    Of course, if we do this, I must insist that the grid be owned by the public, as well, rather than some corporate behemoth, and it can be maintained by the lowest bidder. If the corporate behemoth *happens* to be that bidder, good on them. If it doesn't, good on whoever wins instead.

    Just like the gas tax or bridge tolls, and public roads.

    1. Re:So tax us honestly. by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Amen...

      The grid is no different than public roads, we don't allow private companies (well, we do, but we shouldn't) to control roads, we shouldn't do it with our power grid...

      Generation and power delivery need to be separate, so you pay to have grid tie and pay for power delivery. You can also sell your power back at some rate that the market will bear. At some point, they'll pay you so little that installing batteries makes more sense than grid tie and selling it back. :)

  11. You insensitive clod! by tlambert · · Score: 4, Funny

    There is also the cost of burning coal and oil that isn't seen. Climate change is controversial, but it is pretty obvious that it is happening, and really bad stuff is going to happen unless we stop putting CO2 in the atmosphere at the rate that it is going in.

    You insensitive clod!

    I live in Northern Canada; climate change is a *benefit*, not a *cost*! Change it faster, please!

    1. Re:You insensitive clod! by dave420 · · Score: 2

      It's not a benefit. Your ground will melt, you will be inundated with pests, and the land where your current food grows might well become less productive, leading to shortages. When someone says global warming is a benefit, it's a clear indication they don't know what they're talking about.

  12. Re:You are generating it from oil, just indirectly by CraterGlass · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Anonymous Coward told the following lie:

    solar panels cost more in materials (fabbing the silicon, energy for the aluminum, more energy to melt and shape it, etc.) than a panel ever gets back in energy coming in

    Yawn. You coal shills need to come up with some new lies. Everyone in the world knows that your statement above is a lie. Solar panels return their embodied energy in 1 to 3 years. They continue to return more energy after that for at least another 50 years. At that point, everything in them is fully recyclable into new panels.

    If you must lie for your feudal coal barons, please try to think of some more original and entertaining lies.

  13. How silly by PopeRatzo · · Score: 4, Funny

    They act like they think there could be technological advancements in the next 35 years.

    We know better. Technology stopped progressing early last decade and solar will never be useful. In fact, solar energy is bad for you, causes cancer and creates 100 times more pollution than fracking in a nuclear waste site. Being part of the grid is double-plus good. It ties us together as a society and fosters love and understanding. In the long run, fossil fuels save money and keep the environment clean, because we dig that nasty oil and coal out of the ground where it could hurt animals and burn it off safely.

    This has been a paid advertisement, and may not represent the opinions of the proprietors of this Slashdot account.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  14. Re:Electricity from Oil? by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

    It's "clean" bunker fuel, right? They capture all that carbon, and also sulphur?

    Even if they were supposed to, they wouldn't. Virtually all power plants are over their legal emissions limits. There is no significant penalty.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  15. Just in case anyone was wondering by drinkypoo · · Score: 4, Informative

    Since solar panels cost more in materials (fabbing the silicon, energy for the aluminum, more energy to melt and shape it, etc.) than a panel ever gets back in energy coming in,

    In fact, solar panels would recoup the energy cost of their production in just seven years back in the seventies. And we're talking about the polycrystalline panels. So if anyone was wondering, this is how tired the anti-solar rhetoric is. Not only is it not true, but it's forty years of the same stupid lies.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  16. Re:Fusion power plant comes out the same year and by Uecker · · Score: 2

    This. Solar nicely produces at peak times. Pumped storage is currently under-utilized in Germany.