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What Will It Take To Run a 2-Hour Marathon?

Posted by timothy on from the 40-percent-of-a-can-of-5-hour-energy dept.

HughPickens.com writes Alex Hutchinson writes at Runner's World that runners have cut the distance to the sub-two marathon in half since 1998, but it will get progressively harder to trim the remaining seconds. Still, the physiologists tell us that it's not impossible, meaning it is possible. Hutchinson says it will take several things: a cold day in March or November; a straight, flat course that is mind-numbingly boring; pacemakers who will shepherd leaders around the course cutting the wind and setting the pace; and a runner with a frame of about 5'6", weight of about 120 pounds, and towering self-confidence.The road is so flat and straight, you can see them coming from a mile away. Six runners flow in arrowhead formation around the Canadian city of Saskatoon. The early November air is still and dry, the sky overcast, and the temperature hovers a bit above freezing, just as predicted. All in their early 20s, they've been training together for this moment for years; only in the last month did their coach select which three will go for the record. The remaining three form the front of the arrowhead, blocking the wind and enduring the mental effort of controlling the pace. Should one of them cross the finish line in two hours—or faster—all six will share equally in the $50 million jackpot promised by the heirs to the Hoka One One fortune. The pot of money is up for grabs, for any runner, anywhere in the world. The chase is on. So, will they make it? And what year is this? I'm saying the year is...2075—and they make it.

3 of 254 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Some physiologists by occasional_dabbler · · Score: 3, Interesting
    This.

    Also, whoever does finally break two hours is going to be an outlier on all of the charts, so looking at averages of statistical samples isn't going to help.

    For example in my own case: I'm 49 and I ran 2:57 this year, which puts me in the top 2.5% overall and 1% for my age. For me to run my best I need a day temperature of around 60F so I'm way off that particular chart.

    I also disagree with the idea that a flat course is necessarily the fastest. Of course you don't want mountains, but some small changes of gradient can allow changes in muscle usage leading to reduction of fatigue. I've run both Hamburg and Berlin several times; I find the slightly more undulating Hamburg to be noticably easier than Berlin.

    --
    "Our opponent is an alien starship packed with atomic bombs," I said. "we have a protractor"
  2. 2025 is much more likely. by fhage · · Score: 5, Interesting
    My molecular virologist friend's laboratory has been inserting genes into adult mouse hearts. Today, scientists can turn a couch mouse into a elite athlete with an injection (directly into the heart). It won't be long before someone decides to do this in humans. One no longer needs to be born with the genes of an elite athlete to become one. Researchers in his lab are now studying python heart genetics to better understand the mechanisms which allow the python to double the size of its heart in 24 hours after eating. Personal genetic modification is just around the corner. I predict we'll be able to engineer better athletes within a decade.

    (One of my prouder nerd moments was when I came up with the idea of a better, more humane mouse dynamometer and had a prototype built later that evening. Researchers now use my design, instead of forcing the modified mice to run to the point of exhaustion on an inclined treadmill with a motivational electrical shock grid at the back.)

  3. Re:A wheelchair by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The wheelchair record is actually only about 80 minutes total. So they've already beat that 2 hour record by over 40 minutes... and that's on a standard marathon course, not one that's downhill.