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As Prison Population Sinks, Jails Are a Steal
HughPickens.com writes After rising rapidly for decades, the number of people behind bars peaked at 1.62 Million in 2009, has been mostly falling ever since down, and many justice experts believe the incarceration rate will continue on a downward trajectory for many years. New York, for example, saw an 8.8% decline in federal and state inmates, and California, saw a 20.6% drop. Now the WSJ reports on an awkward byproduct of the declining U.S. inmate population: empty or under-utilized prisons and jails that must be cared for but can't be easily sold or repurposed. New York state has closed 17 prisons and juvenile-justice facilities since 2011, following the rollback of the 1970s-era Rockefeller drug laws, which mandated lengthy sentences for low-level offenders. So far, the state has found buyers for 10 of them, at prices that range from less than $250,000 to about $8 million for a facility in Staten Island, often a fraction of what they cost to build. "There's a prisoner shortage," says Mike Arismendez, city manager for Littlefield, Texas, home of an empty five-building complex that sleeps 383 inmates and comes with a gym, maintenence shed, armory, and parking lot . "Everybody finds it hard to believe."
The incarceration rate is declining largely because crime has fallen significantly in the past generation. In addition, many states have relaxed harsh sentencing laws passed during the tough-on-crime 1980s and 1990s, and have backed rehabilitation programs, resulting in fewer low-level offenders being locked up. States from Michigan to New Jersey have changed parole processes, leading more prisoners to leave earlier. On a federal level, the Justice Department under Attorney General Eric Holder has pushed to reduce sentences for nonviolent drug offenders. Before 2010, the U.S. prison population increased every year for 30 years, from 307,276 in 1978 to a high of 1,615,487 in 2009. "This is the beginning of the end of mass incarceration," says Natasha Frost. "People don't care so much about crime, and it's less of a political focus."
The incarceration rate is declining largely because crime has fallen significantly in the past generation. In addition, many states have relaxed harsh sentencing laws passed during the tough-on-crime 1980s and 1990s, and have backed rehabilitation programs, resulting in fewer low-level offenders being locked up. States from Michigan to New Jersey have changed parole processes, leading more prisoners to leave earlier. On a federal level, the Justice Department under Attorney General Eric Holder has pushed to reduce sentences for nonviolent drug offenders. Before 2010, the U.S. prison population increased every year for 30 years, from 307,276 in 1978 to a high of 1,615,487 in 2009. "This is the beginning of the end of mass incarceration," says Natasha Frost. "People don't care so much about crime, and it's less of a political focus."
It's especially surprising considering that there is a population bulge of young people with the Millennials. Conventional wisdom states that since most crimes are committed by people in their teens and twenties, such a population bulge would increase crime. I guess it's time to toss out conventional wisdom.
The Moore-Murphy Law: The number of things that will go wrong will double every 2 years.
Lead in pretrol. The rise in crime and the subsequent drop tracks the curve of the amount of lead released in the enviroment due to using TEL as a fuel additive almost perfectly. Children breatling in air with elevated levels lead are more likely to exhibit criminal behaviour as adults. This effect is especially strong for violent crime.
The problem was solved in Europe and North America around 1990, when lead-containing additives to petrol where almost eliminated. It just took a while before this affected crime statistics measurably.
California had a massive reduction in prison population due to courts deeming that holding people under severely crowded conditions was unconstitutional. I'm too lazy to do the math and figure out what percentage of the alleged 20% this accounts for. Law enforcement being allowed to legally seize property without any charges has further reduced "criminals" but again to what level? That one we don't know, because there is little to zero accountability by agencies practicing this illegal act (and there are numerous agencies doing this).
Not to take away the point regarding "Crime Conundrum", but rather pointing out that I have a feeling that the claim of reduction is at least partially a statistics game to make someone look good.
-The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.
1.6M? The U.S. prison population is 2,266,800 according to Wikipedia. It's been over 2M for years, and was 2,418,352 in 2008.
In the U.S., the word "prison" is more specific than you think. Look at the third figure from the top at your own link.
In 2010, the U.S. prison population was ~1,518,000 (state and federal prisons). The U.S. jail population was ~749,000. The sum of those is 2,267,000; then comes another ~90,000 in juvenile detention (see the table below the figure). Add all these (and a bunch of smaller numbers, such as holding facilities for immigrants, and military facilities), you get the number of incarcerated people, which is the number you mention.
But yes, AFAIK the U.S. still incarcerates more people than any other country in the world, both as a fraction of the population, and in absolute numbers. There's a long way down to the next on the list.
Mod parent up.
Obligatory link to Mother Jones article exposing the link between leaded gasoline and crime rates.
http://www.motherjones.com/env...
And yes, I grew up in the 80s so I blame the double post and bad link on leaded braincells.
There is a bump in this 2014 graph between 20 and 25 that is comparable to the baby boom.
The Moore-Murphy Law: The number of things that will go wrong will double every 2 years.
Or could that be due to other factors?
Indeed. Crime rates fell in states that implemented harsh prison sentences, but it also fell in states that did not. It fell slightly more in the "lock-em-up" states, but not near enough to justify the costs.
Other factors:
1. Reduction of environmental lead. This is more strongly correlated with falling crime than any other factor.
2. Abortion. The case for this was laid out well in Freakonomics.
3. Better security, and less stuff to steal. Today, cameras are everywhere, alarm systems are much more common, and most people don't have as much to steal. People carry credit cards instead of cash, modern electronics has very little resale value, and nobody uses real silver silverware anymore.
4. Video games. Young men in their prime crime years spend billions of hours playing video games, leaving far less time on the street getting in trouble.