Ebola Forecast: Scientists Release Updated Projections and Tracking Maps

An anonymous reader writes Scientists of the Northeastern University, in collaboration with European scientists, developed a modeling approach aimed at assessing the progression of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa and its international spread under the assumption that the outbreak continues to evolve at the current pace. They also considered the impact of travel restrictions, and concluded that such restrictions may delay by only a few weeks the risk that the outbreak extends to new countries. Instead, travel bans could hamper the delivery of medical supplies and the deployment of specialized personnel to manage the epidemic. In the group's page, there's also an updated assessment of the probability of Ebola virus disease case importation in countries across the world, which was also invoked during the Congressional Ebola debate. The group also released a map with real-time tracking of conversations about Ebola on Twitter. Policy makers and first responders are the main target audience of the tool, which is able to show a series of potential warnings and events (mostly unconfirmed) related to Ebola spreading and case importation.

Comments

Re:Will it be as bad as the H1N1 pandemic??????

[GLMDesigns]

I see the media panicking. I don't see the American public panicking.

If anything there is concern that the government is not taking proper choices do to politics (such as restricting / checking people who travel to ebola and requiring that doctors spend 21 days (or so) at home or in a nice isolation ward at the hospital with TV and all the take out menus they want.

Re:Meh.... Here's the thing .....

[mark-t]

MO, the travel ban would just be good common sense to impose -- while setting up some exceptions for medical staff legitimately traveling to/from the high risk areas for the purpose of aid. I *love* how the government makes it out to be an "all or nothing" proposition -- where we simply can't impose the ban without risking inability to provide medical assistance over there. Seriously?! You can't come up with scenarios allowing SELECTIVE travel for appropriate people and some extra steps they're required to go through upon re-entering the US?

This... seriously. Can anybody who allegedly knows the answer to this please explain how or why such a thing might be logistically impossible, or why it would still impact the ability to get emergency medical aid to the area? Because I certainly can't see any such reason.

Re:Politically correct travel restrictions claptra

[Yoda222]

So your point is that these people don't follow your advices (even if you are the top expert in epidemiology) and this as lead to a disastrous situation in the US

You mean the same experts who gave the OK for Amber Vinson to fly knowing she was exposed and had a fever?

How many people have been infected by contact with Amber Vinson?

Or the doctor who returned from Guinea who admitted he wasn't feeling good but decided to ride the subway multiple times, go bowling and eat out?

How many people have been infected by contact with this doctor?

Re:Look for the real stats

[khallow]

You're comparing apples and oranges. The computer projection is for number of cases, not number of confirmed or suspected cases. There's good reason to believe the actually number of cases is underreported.