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Ebola Forecast: Scientists Release Updated Projections and Tracking Maps
An anonymous reader writes Scientists of the Northeastern University, in collaboration with European scientists, developed a modeling approach aimed at assessing the progression of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa and its international spread under the assumption that the outbreak continues to evolve at the current pace. They also considered the impact of travel restrictions, and concluded that such restrictions may delay by only a few weeks the risk that the outbreak extends to new countries. Instead, travel bans could hamper the delivery of medical supplies and the deployment of specialized personnel to manage the epidemic. In the group's page, there's also an updated assessment of the probability of Ebola virus disease case importation in countries across the world, which was also invoked during the Congressional Ebola debate. The group also released a map with real-time tracking of conversations about Ebola on Twitter. Policy makers and first responders are the main target audience of the tool, which is able to show a series of potential warnings and events (mostly unconfirmed) related to Ebola spreading and case importation.
Scientists, as has been readily confirmed by all news outlets, arent a part of this discussion. Here are the latest forecasts from the newsdroids you trust(c) most:
November: cold front of phobia and ostracization provided through state quarantines and youtube videos of isolated ebola victims. Viewers should expect to vote based entirely on ebola, and ensure they include ebola in casual conversations at least 4 times per day. At no point should viewers stop consuming the product, or attempt to calmly rationalize this situation. Purchase precisely what television doctors prescribe, and adhere to name brands only.
December:Ebola will be entirely forgotten, do not include ebola in any conversations. Focus on black friday, cyber monday, spendy saturday, and subprime mortgage sunday. Holiday spirit, Bing Crosby, and santa trackers will be hauled out of cold storage and our graphics department will ensure concerns of this "disease" are re-applied solely to african and east asian nations far out of the grasp of American geographic knowledge. Drive directly into inexorably sprawling suburban traffic to your largest supermall or box store and purchase nose hair trimmers, cologne, candy, and oil drum sized tins of popped corn. Assume/insist ebola has been cured.
January sneak peek: after guzzling champagne and shitting your weight in cakes and pies, prepare for the next Avengers film, government shutdown, internet advocacy trend, exercise resolution, civil unrest, and iProduct. and hey, thanks for another great programming year!
Good people go to bed earlier.
Travel restrictions are epidemiology 101, but politics gets in the way...
I see the media panicking. I don't see the American public panicking.
If anything there is concern that the government is not taking proper choices do to politics (such as restricting / checking people who travel to ebola and requiring that doctors spend 21 days (or so) at home or in a nice isolation ward at the hospital with TV and all the take out menus they want.
If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
You are aware that experts at both the CDC and the World Health Organization are saying that is likely to make the outbreak worse, and they both recommend against travel restrictions?
So here we have every top medical organization, vs one random slashdot poster. Hmm. Dunning-Kruger much?
The only way to reduce your own risk of being contaminated is to stay isolated.
Slashdot readers live in the basement and never go outside.
If ebola goes on a rampage world-wide, the only survivors will be people who stayed in isolation.
The future belongs to the nerds.
Get free satoshi (Bitcoin) and Dogecoins
First off Ebola is a tragedy and is worthy of all efforts at control and eradication, not because I may someday be at risk, but because real people are dying. However.... The posting links to an "updated assessment" which you can view. Looking there, one is led to believe that on Oct 24, the number of Ebola cases are 30,000 worldwide. But if you look really closely, this is just a projection based on data accumulated 30 days ago. Is this the most current data we can view on which to base our assessment? Look now at the bottom of the page and you will see updated assessments including one for Oct 29 (yesterday). Look for the WHO situation reports further down. Currently the stats are: approx 13,000 confirmed or suspected cases total approx 6,000 cases confirmed. approx 5,000 deaths approx 1,000 total cases of live people testing positive for infection And the big news..... Cases in the past 21 days approx 1,500 vs. 30,000 My question is why are we trying to inject this fear into our people? Why the over inflated assessment for the purpose of publication? Is the author guided by an alternative motive, or are they just too lazy to look? Again.. Ebola is a huge concern and a tragedy to humankind. We need to do everything we can to fight this outbreak. But we should be given accurate information not scare tactics.
Really? An "ebola forecast?" That's the degree of paranoia you've allowed the cable news outlets to work you up into?
Give me a fucking break. First of all, unless you're currently sitting next to somebody with an active infection or you've just cut yourself dissecting an infected animal, the chances of ebola spreading through North America are virtually zero. That doesn't mean there shouldn't be precautions taken, of course...in fact those precautions are exactly why you _don't_ need to be worried, because they've proven quite effective. These same media outlets seem to liken a number of the African countries affected to being about as clean as a prison toilet...yeah, that's not biased at all. Like Newsweek printing a cover with a chimpanzee on the front talking about how ebola could make its way from Africa to the continental U.S. via "infected bushmeat." Seriously, that's something that an American news outlet actually printed. They're basically _telling_ you that your best chances of catching the thing would be subsisting on a diet of infected monkeys and you're _still_ fucking terrified. They did the same thing with SARS, they did the same thing with H1N1, they're doing the same thing with ebola...yet all three of them haven't killed as many people as the common flu does, every single year.
People need to stop being afraid of their own shadows just because CNN and the government tell you to. I can sympathize, these people have been using your fear against you for decades. Communists, terrorists, "weapons of mass destruction" (incidentally, the US is sitting atop the largest pile of WMD's on the face of the earth, which they could willingly irradiate until the end of time if they actually pushed the button). The boogeyman of the day is ebola. They want you to be afraid because people who are afraid are easier to control, they're prone to making irrational decisions based on their gut feelings rather than, you know, actually thinking about it.
You want something to be worked up over, worry about heart disease...it's becoming so prevalent that odds are it's what _will_ kill you long before ebola ever does. We don't need an "ebola czar," we don't need an "ebola forecast." What we do need is for people to use their fucking heads for five seconds because if they did, they'd realize that there's a better chance of being struck by lightning than a plague of ebola decimating the entirely of North America. Stop playing into the hands of the media outlets. I gurantee you that if you stop "tuning in" so to speak, the ebola "issue" will disappear from the headlines so fast that you'd think it was a distant relative of Vanilla Ice. They don't give a fuck about ebola, or you for that matter, they give a fuck about the advertising space they're probably selling hand over fist these days.
She is not "supposed to be quarantined" according to anyone except some idiot politicians trying to score political points and capitalize on fear. She has tested negative multiple times, has no symptoms, and the CDC has cleared her to go home. New Jersey governor said Monday that the CDC cleared nurse Kaci Hickox to go home during 21-day quarantine after she tested negative for Ebola
It's just idiot politicians who have to be seen to be "doing something", regardless of whether that thing makes any sense.
Also CDC says returning Ebola medical workers should not be quarantined.
I was under the impression that travel bans would just impact ordinary civilian and commercial craft, not military air vehicles or airplanes which are designated specifically for transporting medical supplies to an area where they are so vitally needed. So why would such travel restrictions still cause delays in treating the outbreak, exactly?
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
Do you mean the person who doesn't have any symptoms and has tested negative to ebola at least once? That person?
That doesn't mean anything. You can test negative, and be asymptomatic, for a long time while still carrying the disease.
The position of actual scientists that oppose quarantines doesn't rely on whether somebody tested negative for ebola. It's based on whether somebody who is infected is likely to infect others when they become contagious.
Are you suggesting that people should be quarantined regardless of the science?
If you don't understand the science, why do you expect those you disagree with to understand it?
How can we continue to believe in a just universe and freedom to eat crackers if we have no ale?
I don't get it. Why does a travel restrictions have to be an all-or-nothing proposition?
It's real bloody simple. Let medical staff, military, and those working directly to address the Ebola epidemic travel. Those that wish to travel for leisure or other business related reason, banned from doing so. Exceptions are if you wish to return home to Africa to be with your family, but knowing full well you can't leave until after the epidemic subsides.
Anything wrong with the proposed solution above?
Life is not for the lazy.
You do realise that the major part of the international effort has been civilian organisations like MSF? How do you think MSF get staff, supplies and equipment into and out of the affected zone? On regular scheduled airlines of course, they don't have their own fleet of planes.
Watch this Heartland Institute video