How Google Can Get the Flu Right

Posted by timothy on Sunday November 2, 2014 @07:33AM from the spend-time-in-the-right-places dept.

An anonymous reader writes Google Flu Trends was developed in 2009 to improve forecasts of flu levels in the U.S. by utilising Google search data. This early example showcased the potential which lies in the exploitation of human digital traces which all of us leave behind by using online services. The rise of Google Flu Trends was only stopped when the service dramatically overestimated the number of flu incidences recently. The fall raised questions about the value of online data for predictions in general. However, a study published yesterday demonstrates that it is not only about data but also about the adaptiveness of algorithms used for predictions. Scientists combined historic flu levels as reported by the CDC with Google Flu Trends data using an algorithmic framework which is able to adapt to changes in human search behaviour. Their results show that Google Flu Trends data sets significantly add information to the forecasts of current flu levels.

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Re:Indirect measurement by Bite+The+Pillow · 2014-11-02 10:42 · Score: 3, Funny

We don't want hard data, we want predictive data that health care or insurance companies don't have yet. Or maybe charge too much for.
So scientists, linked in the article, are trying to add data points outside of searches and make better predictions.
In fact, they may have read your comment and gone back in time to address your concerns. Well done!