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US Midterm Elections Discussion
November 4th will be election day in the U.S. Though the presidential race is still forming, this midterm election has lots of close races that may give a hint about the likely outcome in 2016. Many pundits and pollsters see a strong chance that Republicans will gain a majority in the Senate in Tuesday's election. Think of the discussion attached to this post as the place to discuss the election: candidates, political advertising, voting technology, and the wisdom of voter ID laws. If you are voting, this chart of poll closing times might be useful. (And, as with the similar post from 10 years ago today, you can take a look at the current poll to see what the Zeitgeist looks like for Slashdot readers, and mentally fill in the past tense, if you're one of the many early voters; not much room in the poll question field.)
Do Democrats Always Win Close Statewide Elections?
. For whatever reason, when statewide races are decided by less than 1 point, Democrats win almost three-quarters of the time. When the margin opens to 1-2 points, that advantage dissipates, and the Democrats win only half the races:
much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
I hope the Republicans will skip shutting down the government this year. I was out of work for eights months after they shut down the government last year for nothing. I'm still trying to recover from the Great Recession after being out of work three of the last six years and filing Chapter 7 bankruptcy in 2011. These hissy-fits in Washington don't help anyone.
Now democrats who won in Obama wave of 2008 are defending deep red districts and might lose them. In 2016 the Republican senators who won in the 2010 wave will be defending. This Republican senate majority will not last long.
The House majority will last longer. The gerrymandered districts and the hold on the state election system is making the Republican primary the real battle to win. That is creating very very hard right wing reps who take extreme positions. They alienate all the emerging vote blocs with impunity because they invulnerable. It is creating big trouble for Republicans running for Statewide offices.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
How again is this News For Nerds?
Because Obama is thinking about granting amnesty to all illegal immigrants in the US. So if legal H1-Bs overstay their visas, and become illegal immigrants . . . poof . . . they will become legal residents. For H1-B employers, mission accomplished. More people willing to work for less. And the employers will not need to go through the paperwork hassle for getting H1-Bs.
That's why.
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
The first past the post voting system used in the United States practically guarantees that over time the political choices will devolve into two different groups. In the event that one eventually dies or becomes too unpopular, the new group will splinter and replace the old one. Under other systems, it's quite likely that either party could be relegated to being much more niche in only a matter of decades.