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Using Naval Logbooks To Reconstruct Past Weather and Predict Future Climate

Lasrick writes: What a great idea: the Old Weather Project uses old logbooks to study the weather patterns of long ago, providing a trove of archival data to scientists who are trying to fill in the details of our knowledge about the atmosphere and the changing climate. "Pity the poor navigator who fell asleep on watch and failed to update his ship's logbook every four hours with details about its geographic position, time, date, wind direction, barometric readings, temperatures, ocean currents, and weather conditions." As Clive Wilkinson of the UK's National Maritime Museum adds, "Anything you read in a logbook, you can be sure that it is a true and faithful account."

The Old Weather Project uses citizen scientists to transcribe and digitize observations that were scrupulously recorded on a clockwork-like basis, and it is one of several that climate scientists are using to create "a three-dimensional computer simulation that will provide a continuous, century-and-a-half-long profile of the entire planet's climate over time" — the 20th Century Reanalysis Project. Data is checked and rechecked by three different people before entry into the database, and the logbook measurements are especially valuable because they were compiled at sea.

16 of 102 comments (clear)

  1. true and faithful account by fustakrakich · · Score: 5, Funny

    Faithful, yes, but if he didn't know how to navigate, how 'true' can they be? Eh, not to worry, chances are nobody would ever find those logs anyway, if you get my drift...

    --
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    1. Re:true and faithful account by OzPeter · · Score: 4, Informative

      If you can use a sextant, you got it made.

      Only as long as you have an accurate chronometer that was correctly set. The sextant gives you North/South, but you need the chronometer for East/West

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    2. Re:true and faithful account by stridebird · · Score: 2

      You will need an almanac as well, really. I think only Polaris or (possibly) the Southern Cross can be used for fairly approximate latitude without further data or measurement. Sun: noon altitude varies throughout the year. Basically any other body you need to know time and ephemeris. I am only learning astronavigation now but that's how I understand it.

  2. HA! by Holi · · Score: 5, Funny

    "Anything you read in a logbook, you can be sure that it is a true and faithful account."

    Says someone who never stood watch in the Navy.

    --
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    1. Re:HA! by Havokmon · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "Anything you read in a logbook, you can be sure that it is a true and faithful account."

      Says someone who never stood watch in the Navy.

      Especially back before satellites and realtime communications Wanna pick up some 'native' chicks?

      Oh we're a week late because it was REALLY STORMY at sea. See? It says so in the log book.

      --
      "I can't give you a brain, so I'll give you a diploma" - The Great Oz (blatently stolen sig)
    2. Re:HA! by Ronin+Developer · · Score: 2

      Now, that's funny (Yes, I served).

      We had navigation logs, engine logs, bridge logs, radio logs, pretty much logs for everything. And, those were required to be accurate. Even the Boatswain mates had their own logs. Their log, however, I would question ...

    3. Re:HA! by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 4, Informative

      Actually, he only needed to get to Timor in the rowboat, but that was impressive enough (it was a 47-day voyage. Of the 19 men, only one was lost, to hostile natives when they made a landfall at Tofua). Bligh was an excellent seaman. And not a bad guy, his reputation notwithstanding.

  3. US Navy still uses sextant and chronometer by perpenso · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I don't think navigation on the ocean was very forgiving before modern electronics. And I gather you still do it the old fashioned way as a back up, in case you ever find yourself without them.

    I saw a documentary on a US Navy Aircraft Carrier, it had a relevant incident. The carrier has GPS, LORAN, inertial navigation, etc. Yet every day a sailor steps outside the bridge with a sextant and takes readings on the horizon and sun. (does another sailor do so at night with the stars?). He then goes inside and using a WW2 manufactured mechanical chronometer calculates the position of the ship. When asked why the Navy still uses such ancient mechanical technology the sailor replied that this ship is a warship and is expected to be where it needs to be regardless of whether the fancy electronics is working or not.

  4. But I thought .... by KirbyCombat · · Score: 2

    Don't we already know the average temperature of the planet to better than a tenth of a degree back to the 1890's?

    1. Re:But I thought .... by itzly · · Score: 2

      Overlapping datasets are always good. Helps to catch mistakes, and helps to reduce error bars.

    2. Re:But I thought .... by TapeCutter · · Score: 2

      Independent confirmation of results is a fundamental part of the scientific method. For example it has been known since the 1990's that tree rings are an unreliable climate indicator after ~1960, nobody knows why, but they do know that it doesn't match the other lines of evidence, which includes the modern instrumental records. This is what the infamous "Mike's trick in Nature" quote was referring to in the 'climategate' beat up, the truncation of a data set that was known to be wrong. The character assassins behind 'climategate' insisted that removing the bad data was dishonest and politically motivated, despite the fact that the explanation of the 'trick' had been published in Nature.

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  5. Offtopic: What is with the egregious clickbait by presidenteloco · · Score: 2, Informative

    at the bottom of the classic slashdot homepage.

    9.5 out of 10 on the annoying and intelligence-insulting scale.

    Dice please exterminate this local outbreak of this putrid Internet fungal growth.

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    1. Re:Offtopic: What is with the egregious clickbait by Carnildo · · Score: 2

      I disabled Javascript on Slashdot. The site suddenly became far more usable, and the clickbait ads went away.

      (I also disabled images, and the usability shot up again.)

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  6. Exxon Valdez by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 2

    Well, the thing about the Exxon Valdez spill, is that it happened at night, shortly after leaving Port Valdez. Taking elevations at noon only tells you your latitude, unless you have a very accurate clock, and the sun can only be used in that manner at noon (AFAIK). You could try using another celestial object, but the visibility in the Valdez Narrows tends to be bad even for the region, although the seas are generally less than in Prince William Sound or the rest of the Gulf of Alaska. I presume you're referring to allegations that Exxon Valdez's radar navigation was turned off, but there has never been any evidence to that effect. Personally, I don't know Greg Palast, but I did grow up in Valdez, and I was there for the spill, and while I have no definitive evidence, I am pretty sure he is not only full of shit, but paid to be so. Even if the radar was off, you detect reefs with sonar, and that was working perfectly.

    The biggest factor in the Exxon spill was the lack of a double-hull construction. It should not have been a disaster. Even if everything else that went wrong had still happened, it would have been mitigated to a great degree with better construction. It wasn't a problem of double-checking procedures or equipment, it was a fundamental design flaw.

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    1. Re:Exxon Valdez by drinkypoo · · Score: 3

      I thought the problem with the E.V. was that it's hard to make intelligent decisions when you're drunk, regardless of how much accurate information you have.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  7. Re:Backcasting by TapeCutter · · Score: 2

    The climate freaks would be much more credible if their back casted models matched historical observations.

    Well you should be pleased to learn that they have been doing that for about 40yrs now.

    PS: Modeling past climate is normally referred to as 'hindcasting', perhaps if you google using the correct terminology you will get more informative results.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.