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Zuckerberg: Most of Facebook Will Be Video Within Five Years

jfruh writes: Facebook recently held its first ever town-hall meeting in which Mark Zuckerberg took questions from the general public, and one of his answers might raise some eyebrows. When asked if the increasing numbers of photos being uploaded might strain the company's servers, he said the infrastructure is more than up to the task, because they're preparing for the notion that "in five years, most of [Facebook] will be video."

39 of 206 comments (clear)

  1. No. by kuzb · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I find it increasingly more and more difficult to take Zuckerberg seriously.

    --
    BeauHD. Worst editor since kdawson.
    1. Re:No. by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Funny

      Oh no. How ever will a CEO of a fortune 500 company be taken seriously if not by slashdot user kuzb?

    2. Re:No. by itzly · · Score: 4, Insightful

      All it takes for facebook to fail is for ordinary users walking away in sufficient numbers.

    3. Re:No. by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Uh, yeah. So?

    4. Re:No. by itzly · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The fact that Zuckerberg is CEO of a Fortune-500 company isn't a guarantee that he's any better at predicting the future.

    5. Re:No. by Austerity+Empowers · · Score: 4, Funny

      How do you know kuzb wasn't trying to spell "flamingo"?

    6. Re:No. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Oblig xkcd...

      http://xkcd.com/678/

    7. Re:No. by phantomfive · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Worth mentioning, there's a difference between asserting it will all be video, and preparing your infrastructure for that possibility.

      That said, Zuckerberg (and every other website operator) hopes it will all be video, because video ads tend to make more than static. That's why every website from MSNBC to Slashdot have suddenly tried creating video content, even when it makes no sense.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    8. Re:No. by TubeSteak · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Worth mentioning, there's a difference between asserting it will all be video, and preparing your infrastructure for that possibility.

      I tracked down the webcast and the question is asked ~34 minutes in.
      Here's what he actually said, beyond the snippet being quoted everywhere

      5 years ago, most of facebook was text and if you fast forward 5 years, probably most of it is going to be video, just because it's getting easier to capture video of the moments of your lives and share it [...]

      He then talks about the news feed ranking your stories.

      Every day there are about 1,500 stories that are shared with you and the average person will only look at about 100 a day, because that's all you have time for

      In 5 years, if everything on facebook is video, the average person is sure as hell not going to have time to interact with 100 videos per day.
      Unless they copy Vine, a richer video experience on facebook will necessarily mean that you interact with less people per unit of time.

      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
    9. Re:No. by NotSanguine · · Score: 2

      All it takes for facebook to fail is for ordinary users walking away in sufficient numbers.

      Already done on my end. Only 499,999,999 more to go. :)

      --
      No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical. --Niels Bohr
    10. Re:No. by taustin · · Score: 2

      I don't think it could get more difficult to take Zuckerberg, or Facebook, seriously.

    11. Re:No. by tlhIngan · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That said, Zuckerberg (and every other website operator) hopes it will all be video, because video ads tend to make more than static. That's why every website from MSNBC to Slashdot have suddenly tried creating video content, even when it makes no sense.

      Plus, video ads are less blockable because users run the real risk of blocking the content they wish to see as well. That's why they pay more. And you can make them unskippable and all that too.

      Why do you think all the TV networks have embraced putting TV shows online? Because they realize they can put ads on the stream and the user has to sit through them (or go to the bathroom). Either way, they can't fast forward through them like they can on a DVR.

    12. Re:No. by roc97007 · · Score: 2

      Oblig xkcd...

      http://xkcd.com/678/

      There is truth in the rollover -- "a technology that is '20 years away' will be 20 years away indefinitely.". We've all seen examples of that in our lifetimes. (fusion, flying cars, universal health care)

      I think there is some sort of threshold -- perhaps "50 years away" where the technology accelerates away from us. So that it'll be 55 years away from 10 years from now, and so on, becoming less and less attainable over time. There needs to be a cool name for this.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    13. Re:No. by SolitaryMan · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Who the fuck has the time to look through 100 FB stories a day???

      --
      May Peace Prevail On Earth
    14. Re:No. by w_dragon · · Score: 2

      Video ads are exactly as blockable as image ads. If it's served from the same domain as the content it's hard to block, otherwise it's easy.

    15. Re:No. by Em+Adespoton · · Score: 5, Funny

      Who the fuck has the time to look through 100 FB stories a day???

      the average person will only look at about 100 a day

      Nobody; they look at the headlines and then add 100 comments, just like here on slashdot.

    16. Re:No. by Em+Adespoton · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Why do you think all the TV networks have embraced putting TV shows online? Because they realize they can put ads on the stream and the user has to sit through them (or go to the bathroom). Either way, they can't fast forward through them like they can on a DVR.

      ...except that in my case, I block the paths to the ad-content streams. You know what happens? Video stream loads, html5/flash then goes to the "insert ad" code, gets no response, and moves on to the next queued stream, until the next in the queue is the non-ad video. This means that where others get ads, I get about 3 seconds of spinners. I could probably write a greasemonkey script that would flat-out scrub references to those streams from the code so that playback is seamless -- AdBlockPlus, Ghostery and NoScript plugins already do that for me in some situations. I didn't even realize YouTube had ads until I was shoulder surfing someone's iPad....

  2. So long as it does not autoplay. by QuietLagoon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Autoplay HTML5 video is the scourge on the Internet. Is there a way to stop it?

    1. Re:So long as it does not autoplay. by i+kan+reed · · Score: 5, Informative

      adblock rule: ##video

      Any other problems that can be solved really easily?

    2. Re:So long as it does not autoplay. by Nyder · · Score: 4, Funny

      adblock rule: ##video

      Any other problems that can be solved really easily?

      World peace?

      --
      Be seeing you...
    3. Re:So long as it does not autoplay. by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      Can you make windows 8.1 stop changing the keyboard layout every time I reboot? Adthanksvance.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  3. But of course! by darkain · · Score: 4, Funny

    And in five years, we'll all be using a system where we wave our hands around in the air to do gestures to control our computers! /sarcasm

  4. Most of Facebook is moms reposting the same jokes by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 2

    Most of Facebook is moms reposting the same jokes and images over and over again. I actually think I see where Zuckerburg might going with this: since media companies are getting smarter about packing their mass-market content as "clips" (e.g., Jimmy Fallon's bits), they're getting easier for mere mortals to post. However, I don't think any significant portion of videos will actually get posted to Facebook - instead it'll all still be hosted on YouTube, media sites (e.g., NBC) or somewhere else.

  5. Video isn't hard now by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 2

    I can't think of any impediments I have to uploading more video to Facebook right now. If I wanted to upload more videos I'd upload more videos, but they don't usually make sense where text, stills, or links do.

    So Mark must be betting that they'll make sense in five years when they don't now - I wonder what his reasoning could possibly be.

    I hope he doesn't mean that people will be video recording their status updates. There's a reason many people call it "Dumpbook" - the tile wall in the background is sort of a giveaway.

    --
    My God, it's Full of Source!
    OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
  6. How cute! by Lumpy · · Score: 5, Funny

    Zuck thinks that Facebook will be relevant in 5 years.... how ADORABLE!

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
  7. Re:Most of Facebook is moms reposting the same jok by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Funny

    Zuckerburg is looking to kill youtube.

    Unfortunately, Google's own social network beat them to the punch.

  8. Re:Most of Facebook is moms reposting the same jok by nine-times · · Score: 3, Insightful

    That hasn't been my experience. These days, my Facebook feed seems to be filled with people posting Buzzfeed links to "20 sexy historical facts that will blow your mind!" or else it's a link that says "You won't believe what happens in this video!" without giving any explanation as to what's in the video.

    In other words, it's mostly tedious, useless advertising for something or other.

  9. vertical by itzly · · Score: 2

    But are they going to be vertical videos ?

    1. Re:vertical by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      vertical videos are no longer a problem: just fill the black bars with a 3 times magnified, blurred version of the video

  10. Pics or it didn't happen by penguinoid · · Score: 2

    Where's the video of Zuckerberg saying that Facebook will be mostly video?

    --
    Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
  11. In five years by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Facebook will be completely irrelevant to the vast majority of people - pretty much where MySpace has been for the past half-decade.

    Seriously - Facebook's user base is rapidly skewing older and older. When I mention Facebook to a young person, they generally either say they aren't on it at all anymore, or they say they only get on Facebook to stay in touch with their older relatives (mom, dad, grandma, etc.).

    And, at least right now, there doesn't appear to be one dominant site where everyone under thirty has landed. Some hang out on Tumblr, some on Instagram, some only do SnapChat (I realize that's not a "site"), etc.

    --
    #DeleteChrome
    1. Re:In five years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      I bet you were one of the Facebook bashers who ran around here chanting that GoogleMinus was going to make Facebook die a few years back too.
       
      You know, we get it, you hate Facebook. Fair enough. I can't say I blame you. But after a decade and a half of listening to the Slashdot peanut gallery I've come to realize that the only way you guys would ever make a million dollars in business is if you started with a billion dollars.
       
      While Facebook isn't exactly going gangbusters it is still increasing its user base. This talk that it's dead and we should stick a fork in it reeks of the same kind of mentality that makes investors pull their money out of a company because they're only showing a 10% increase in revenue and not 20%. Nothing more and nothing less than knee jerk nonsense.
       
      See you around when the next Facebook article appears here and you come up with nothing but a handful of crap to sling as justification for why you think Facebook is failing.

    2. Re:In five years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      On the advice of Slashdot I've been shorting FaceBook stock since the IPO. I am now homeless due to the crippling losses, but I'll keep it up. Slashdot has never steered me wrong!

  12. In 5 years, most facebook will be... by roc97007 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...unseen by me. I don't want to sit through video. I *can* read, although it seems like most Facebook denizens can't write.

    When I poke a link to a news item, if it leads to a video, rather than waiting for the commercial to load and play, and the talking heads to stop self promoting and get to the point, I've long since dismissed the tab and found the news item somewhere else as text.

    The more Facebook forces video, the less interesting it is.

    And of course, Google will copy everything Facebook does, so G+ will be screwed also.

    I'm going back to Usenet. run-on puns were better than this. (It was just a capital-K to get rid of them.)

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  13. Re:Videophones by roc97007 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    That is actually pretty hilarious, about video phones. It was supposedly, for decades, one of the greatest new features that couldn't be done well for bandwidth and equipment cost reasons, and when finally everyone had a 4G phone with a front-facing camera, we found that nope, nobody cares about video phones.

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  14. Zuckerberg: Fucking Idiot by Khyber · · Score: 2

    If you think FB is going to be primarily video content in 5 years, you haven't been watching net neutrality and the laws ISPs and media producers are trying to get passed which severely limits user bandwidth.

    Unless you're going to be paying to get rid of those laws yourself, Mark, you're just a witless fucking idiot without any real eye on the future.

    --
    Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
  15. Re:Video Facebook? An opportunity for someone else by jeffmflanagan · · Score: 3, Interesting

    >Zuckerberg/Facebook thinks we're going to have "conversations" with video snippets?

    No, he expects Facebook users are going to have conversations with video snippets. This has nothing to do with the general population. He's judged his users well enough so far, so there's no reason to believe he's mistaken now. I expect that a lot of people are going to move into VR for their conversations, which means routing and likely storing massive amounts of video.

  16. Ain't nobody got time for that by unfortunateson · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Seriously? 90% of Facebook is currently graphics certainly not worth 1000 words: they literally are about eight to thirty words, total, with some public domain clipart or unlicensed pop-culture icons. I don't do "meme pictures." If I have a message, I type it.

    I've never understood the point of podcasts other than for music or other performance: If I want news, I can read it in 1/10th the time.
    And video? What, am I deaf and need to see your body language and lips move? Sure, for educational, entertainment clips, and of course cute animals... but otherwise? Nope.

    And get off my lawn.

    --
    Design for Use, not Construction!
  17. Videos have their use by Hamsterdan · · Score: 2

    Call me old school, but for most of those videos, pictures would do the job (or a better one)

    Looking for a how-to for something? Gimme pictures, you can't print a video (for one). I don;t need nor want to watch a video (often with horrible music) when 5 pictures and 10 lines of text does exactly the same thing.

    --
    I've got better things to do tonight than die.